This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Indianapolis Colts -10 (-110) at Houston Texans
I don't often lay 10 points in the NFL, especially on the road. But this game looks like a total mismatch, and the Colts have traditionally fared very well vs. Houston, winning six of their last seven meetings. Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor has been around for three of those games, totaling 388 yards and four touchdowns as the Colts won all three games (including a 31-3 blowout earlier this year). The Colts rank third in total rushing yards, while leading the league at 5.2 yards per carry. They also rank second in rushing touchdowns (17). Meanwhile, the Texans rank 31st in both rushing yards allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed. This is a plum spot for Taylor, and the Colts should run all over the Texans on their way to an easy win.
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-115) at New York Jets
The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing thanks to their new run-heavy approach, ranking first in both yards and touchdowns and second in yards per carry at 5.1. This plays well vs. the Jets, who rank 27th in rushing yards allowed while also allowing a league-high 20 rushing touchdowns (no other team has more than 17). The Jets are also quite inept on offense and seem incapable of capitalizing on the Eagles' weak spot, which is run defense (the Jets rank 29th in rushing yards and have only eight rushing touchdowns this year). Even with QB Jalen Hurts questionable to start this game (Gardner Minshew seems more likely), the Eagles should control this game on the ground on their way to a facile win.
Player Props
Tee Higgins over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Higgins has been undervalued for much of the year, with most of the attention going to Ja'Marr Chase after his sizzling start to the season. Things were bound to even out between those two, who operate more like a 1/1A than a 1/2 in the Bengals offense. Higgins has surged lately (covering this number in four of his last five games) and is coming off his best game of the season (6-114-1 on eight targets vs. the Steelers). While the Chargers are most vulnerable on ground, the Bengals should put up their fair share of passes in this high-totaled game, and Higgins seems likely to continue his trend of covering modest numbers.
Justin Jefferson over 87.5 receiving yards (-115)
Beautiful spot for Jefferson this week, as the Lions passing defense ranks last in yards per attempt (and have pretty much all year). Obviously, Jefferson is among the more explosive WRs in the league, and he stands a solid chance of connecting for some big plays. While there's some concern that the Vikings will build a big lead in this game and stop throwing at some point, it also makes sense that Jefferson would've had a major hand in building that lead, so I'm not overly concerned by that. For his part, Jefferson has surpassed 140 yards in two of his last three games and went for 124 yards in their earlier meeting with Detroit this year. Jefferson also averaged 10 targets in those last three starts. Expect a big game.
Alexander Mattison over 80.5 rushing yards (-120)
As mentioned, the Vikings figure to build a nice lead in this game, which should lead to a whole lot of Mattison in the second half (if not earlier). The Lions run defense is pretty shoddy, ranking 28th in yards allowed while also allowing the most rushing attempts in the league. For Mattison's part, he's been almost a 1-for-1 replacement for Dalvin Cook in the games that he's started for him, even going 25-113 versus the Lions in one such game earlier this year. Expect more of the same.
Antonio Gibson over 71.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Football Team have been emphasizing the run more recently, with Gibson averaging a whopping 24 carries per game over his last three starts. And he could carry an even bigger load this week, with his backfield partner J.D. McKissic out for this game. Meanwhile, the Raiders rushing defense ranks 24th in yards allowed, while allowing 4.4 yards per carry. This should be an easy enough hurdle for Gibson to clear, given the expected volume.
Elijah Mitchell over 89.5 rushing yards (-115)
Given the way Antonio Gibson ran all over the Seahawks on Monday night, it's hard not to like Mitchell in this spot. Mitchell has posted 27 carries in each of his last two starts and surpassed this total in four of his last five starts. He figures for a lot of work in this one, not only based on Seattle's poor effort vs. Gibson last week, but also because the 49ers are missing their top playmaker Deebo Samuel (one reason why Mitchell got 27 carries last week). Expect to see Mitchell running the ball early and often, with some degree of success. Should get there on volume alone.
Brandon Aiyuk over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
Right back with Aiyuk this week, based on Deebo's absence. He's clearly the WR1 in such cases, and has recorded 85-plus yards in three of his last four games. He's also a big-play specialist, having a long gainer of 20-plus yards in five consecutive games. All he needs to cover this total is a fair amount of volume, which he should get.
Diontae Johnson over 6.5 receptions (-105)
Simply put, Diontae is a target monster. He excels at getting open, which is why he's been Roethlisberger's security blanket since early last season. In fact, Diontae has recorded no less than 13 targets in each of his last three games (and five of his last six). While Roethlisberger has accuracy problems these days, Diontae's volume has resulted in his covering this number in each of his last three starts, and there's little doubt the Steelers will be forced to throw in this game vs. the favored Ravens. Expect a representative Diontae game, which should be enough.
