This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Perhaps not every Thursday Night Football to this point has featured a particularly high level of play, but the level of competitiveness in the Week 9 matchup might mark a new low point yet. As you would expect of a rebuilding team, the Texans (1-5) are not very good. As you would expect of a team with an above average quarterback, standout group of pass catchers, potentially league-best offensive line and potential top-five defense, the Eagles (7-0) are very good. This should make for a lopsided competition. Still, there should be at least one team scoring points, so picking from the Eagles' side alone is a task that requires a lot of thought. The spread is at 14 points – up from 13, even as the over/under jumped from 43 to 45.5 – lopsided or not this should still be a bit more lively than some of the Thursday games to this point.
QUARTERBACKS
Jalen Hurts ($11800 DK, $17500 FD) can take a lot from the Houston defense, but it's not clear how much the Eagles will look to take by air in this game, where they're favored by two full touchdowns. Hurts will presumably play some leading role in the acquisition of the first few scores, but if the Eagles want to coast on their running game from that point there's a good chance they'll have that option. Still, particularly given the rushing threat Hurts himself poses, he could be a necessary cashing pick even if his passing volume
Perhaps not every Thursday Night Football to this point has featured a particularly high level of play, but the level of competitiveness in the Week 9 matchup might mark a new low point yet. As you would expect of a rebuilding team, the Texans (1-5) are not very good. As you would expect of a team with an above average quarterback, standout group of pass catchers, potentially league-best offensive line and potential top-five defense, the Eagles (7-0) are very good. This should make for a lopsided competition. Still, there should be at least one team scoring points, so picking from the Eagles' side alone is a task that requires a lot of thought. The spread is at 14 points – up from 13, even as the over/under jumped from 43 to 45.5 – lopsided or not this should still be a bit more lively than some of the Thursday games to this point.
QUARTERBACKS
Jalen Hurts ($11800 DK, $17500 FD) can take a lot from the Houston defense, but it's not clear how much the Eagles will look to take by air in this game, where they're favored by two full touchdowns. Hurts will presumably play some leading role in the acquisition of the first few scores, but if the Eagles want to coast on their running game from that point there's a good chance they'll have that option. Still, particularly given the rushing threat Hurts himself poses, he could be a necessary cashing pick even if his passing volume is limited, especially with the Houston offense looking so toothless on the other side.
It's not clear what fair expectations might be for Davis Mills ($9000 DK, $14000 FD) in this setting, where on a short week he must face one of the league's best defenses while playing without his two top receivers. He could push for 40 pass attempts and pile up some garbage time numbers, or Mills could struggle so badly the Texans don't get enough first downs to reach 40 pass attempts. It would be difficult to criticize Mills much if the latter scenario occurs.
RUNNING BACKS
It might not look like a conventionally good matchup for Dameon Pierce ($8600 DK, $15000 FD) with the Texans two-touchdown underdogs, but the Eagles defense is probably more easily beaten on the ground than through the air, and it's not as if the Texans have much choice but to feed Pierce anyway. Pierce is one of the clear bright spots of the 2022 draft class, and he can make contributions as a pass catcher, too. If Pierce is phased out of the game plan due to a blowout or whatever else, Rex Burkhead ($4600 DK, $7500 FD) and Dare Ogunbowale ($2000 DK, $6000 FD) are the only on-hand personnel otherwise. Both Burkhead and Ogunbowale are little more than pass-catching specialists, so it's possible one could sneak in a chunk of production in a hurryup situation.
Miles Sanders ($10400 DK, $13000 FD) has such a great matchup that the only thing that can stop him would be backups like Kenneth Gainwell ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) or/and Boston Scott ($1800 DK, $7500 FD) getting in on the fun. The Texans run defense is basically zero resistance, and they can't be especially well rested after seeing 32 carries of Derrick Henry on Sunday.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
A.J. Brown ($11200 DK, $14500 FD) is a monster and DeVonta Smith ($8200 DK, $12000 FD) is about as much himself, but between the two of them and Dallas Goedert ($6600 DK, $11000 FD) the Eagles have more pass-catching talent than they do ample pass-catching usage to allocate between the pass catchers. While tendencies can change over the course of a season, the Eagles to this point have seemingly used Brown as their WR1 and especially main downfield target, while Smith works mostly underneath and slot wideout Quez Watkins ($1400 DK, $7000 FD) mostly clears space for Smith and Goedert with his 4.35 speed. Brown will remain Philadelphia's WR1, but Smith can definitely make plays downfield and Watkins can do more with the ball than he has to this point. Zach Pascal ($2800 DK, $9000 FD) rotates in for Watkins but largely for run-blocking purposes, so while somewhat capable Pascal's snaps convert to routes less reliably than the other Eagles receivers. Jack Stoll ($200 DK, $5000 FD) is mostly a blocker but quietly plays quite a few snaps – about 30 per game – while TE3 Grant Calcaterra ($200 DK, $5500 FD) is the more capable pass catcher but has only played around 10 snaps per game the last five weeks.
With Brandin Cooks trending toward out and Nico Collins out already, the Texans already-weak passing game is careening toward a level of bad not often seen. It's not just that the Eagles have strong corner personnel to abuse these backup wideouts – the Philadelphia pass rush is as good or nearly as good as any pass rush in the league – so standard usage:production projections might not hold in the face of such unusual conditions. With that said, garbage time does happen and if the Eagles put in their backup corners then players like Chris Moore ($5400 DK, $6500 FD) and Phillip Dorsett ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) might step up. Tyron Johnson ($200 DK, $5000 FD) might be the WR3 and has a legitimate downfield skill set if so. Tight ends might need to step up in light of Houston's lack of available wide receiver personnel, so guys like OJ Howard ($1600 DK, $6000 FD), Brevin Jordan ($1000 DK, $6500 FD) and Jordan Akins ($800 DK, $7000 FD) might see heightened usage. Howard is the biggest and fastest of the three, but he sees the least per-snap opportunity because he's a capable blocker. Jordan and Akins are both pass-catching specialists and both have drawn encouraging per-snap usage, but Akins is even more of a pass-catching specialist than Jordan. That means Akins tends to play the fewest snaps, but it also might make him the one most likely to draw looks that would normally go to a Houston wide receiver.
KICKERS
Jake Elliott ($4800 DK, $9500 FD) kicks for the team with the high projected point total, but it's not clear at what rate that translates to fantasy opportunity. The Eagles are normally good at getting the ball to the end zone, and against a defense like Houston's that should be as much the case as ever. Elliott is capable, though, if he should get the chance to attempt more than one field goal. Ka'imi Fairbairn ($3800 DK, $8500 FD) is on the team with the low projected point total, yet his fantasy opportunity level might be similar to Elliott's. The Texans are on shutout watch, but Fairbairn is a solid kicker and has 15 field goal attempts to Elliot's seven... of course, Elliot has 21 PAT attempts to Fairbairn's 11.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
With the short week and with the extreme favored status of the Eagles ($7000 DK, $10000 FD), the Philadelphia defense carries an uncommonly high projection. The Philadelphia pass rush has the depth to play hot even on a short week, and the Texans pass-catcher rotation is woefully thin. The absence of defensive tackle Jordan Davis is a bummer for Philadelphia but probably not a full-blown concern – the absence of Cooks is a massive downgrade for the Houston offense, and the loss of Nico Collins was already bad enough. The Texans ($3200 DK, $8000 FD) defense could not have much worse of a setup. Hurts can make some bad throws, but it's difficult to see how he could possibly get stressed in this matchup.
