Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Dolphins vs. Jaguars

If you ever took a moment to consider what the worst NFL showdown slate you'd ever play is, we have a very tempting one for that crown Thursday night as the Jaguars host the Dolphins. In all honesty, there are probably worse games that could happen (we get the Jets next week!), but that's more because of the excitement Gardner Minshew brings to the table than anything else. The Jaguars have some good players and the Dolphins...sort of do...so it feels a tad bit surprising the Jags are only favored by 3.0 at home in a game with a 48.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jacksonville picked up a surprising Week 1 victory over the Colts, who were 7.0-point favorites, and then they played the Titans tough in Week 2, eventually losing 33-30 but covering the 7.0-point spread again. Meanwhile, the Dolphins come in winless, losing their opener at home to the Patriots 21-11 and failing to cover the 7.0-point spread, and but they did cover the 5.5-point spread against the Bills in Week 2, falling 31-28 after pulling within three with under a minute to go.

QUARTERBACKS

Nothing exemplifies the excitement of this game more than the quarterback matchup between Gardner Minshew ($11,000 DK, $16,000 FD) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD), the two-most expensive players on both sites. No, really.

That's actually not fair at all to Minshew, who trails only Russell Wilson in passing touchdowns this season, throwing three in each game. His passing volume wasn't great in Week 1 when he finished with 173 yards, but the 339 he put up against a solid Titans defense shows his upside. And while he's not really known for being overly productive on the ground, Minshew managed 19 rushing yards in both games.

Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has been similarly up-and-down this season, throwing for 191 yards in Week 1 at New England and then exploding for 328 last week against the Bills. However, he was picked off three times by the Patriots and didn't throw a touchdown but then threw two scores without a turnover against Buffalo.

It's stupidly early in the season to consider this, but only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Dolphins, while the Jaguars have allowed the ninth-most. That is a bit of a trend from last season, as the Dolphins allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year, while the Jaguars were more middle-of-the-road.

As a result, there are likely to be plenty of people who captain/MVP Minshew because there's a fairly obvious path to him tearing up the Dolphins' secondary, while contrarian players will certainly look at Fitzpatrick and remember why he's occasionally called Fitzmagic. Playing the two together feels like roster suicide, especially if they captain one of them on DraftKings because of the salary multiplier, but thankfully there are enough people who will do it.

PASS CATCHERS

The Miami target tree hasn't been that big through two weeks, with tight end Mike Gesicki ($7,400 DK, $10,500 FD) leading the team in targets (16), receptions (11), air yards (163), receiving yards (160) and receiving touchdowns (tied with one). Meanwhile, their trio of wideouts has been fairly close, with Isaiah Ford ($3,000 DK, $7,000 FD) leading the group in targets (14), while his nine receptions are tied with DeVante Parker ($8,400 DK, $12,000 FD), the group's leader in receiving yards (100). Parker hasn't been doing a whole lot, and he's the most expensive non-QB among Miami players, which could push his popularity down a bit. Surely there will be people who consider paying down for Ford or turning to Preston Williams ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD), the latter of whom has the same number of targets as Parker (12) but has caught only three for 67 yards. However, he has 148 air yards on those 12 targets, giving him a team-leading 12.3 aDOT, so players who prefer to focus on potential upside should surely be looking Williams' way, especially because he won't be shadowed by Tre'Davious White again.

Otherwise, we're left with players like Jakeem Grant ($1,400 DK, $5,500 FD), Lynn Bowden ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Adam Shaheen ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD) as long-shot options to grab a rare touchdown. Grant is the likeliest of the group to account for a big score because of his blazing speed, though he's probably more likely to do that on special teams than as a wide receiver, especially after playing only 10 offensive snaps last week and getting only a single target.

The Jacksonville side is a little more spread out despite Keelan Cole ($5,400 DK, $11,000 FD) leading the team in targets (12), receptions (11) and receiving touchdowns, trailing only DJ Chark ($9,400 DK, $13,000 FD), who has caught all seven of his targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns through two games, in receiving yards (109 to 105). Chark was limited in practice this week because of chest and back injuries, and while he is officially questionable to play, the expectation at this point is that he'll give it a go. If he sits, Cole is likely to be very popular because of the perceived increase in opportunities and lower price. I'd go deeper, but Jerry Donabedian did such a great job summarizing it in one of this week's Hidden Stat Line articles that I'll just copy it and paste it here:

Jaguars

	Snaps	Routes	Routes/Dropback	Targets	Target Share	Receiving Line
WR DJ Chark	79%	41	.82	4	8.9%	4-84-0
WR Keelan Cole	68%	37	.74	7	15.6%	6-58-1
TE Tyler Eifert	60%	36	.72	6	13.3%	3-36-1
WR Laviska Shenault	57%	27	.54	4	8.9%	3-35-0
WR Chris Conley	45%	22	.44	7	15.6%	4-48-0

• The Jags had eight players finish between four and seven targets. Chris Thompson, James Robinson and TE James O'Shaughnessy.
• Chark has meager 10.9 percent target share through two weeks, but his snap and route numbers are right in line with expectations. He got 84 percent snap share and .93 routes per dropback in Week 1.
• Cole leads the team with 18.8 percent target share. His 6.2 aDOT is way down from 9.9 in 2018 and 10.7 in 2019, but he's getting more snaps, routes and targets. He's run 73 percent of his routes from the slot, per PFF, up from 54 percent last year.
• Conley bounced back a little, after getting 32 percent snap share and one target in the season opener.
• Eifert's snap share was up only a tick from 56 percent the previous week, but his routes/db jumped from .57 to .72 and his targets from one to six. He scored a TD from 19 yards out and saw two other targets in the red zone. He also leads the Jags in air yards so far, albeit with only 91.
• Shenault added five carries for 37 yards, taking eight snaps in the backfield, seven in the slot and 26 out wide, per PFF. He only had two backfield snaps (and one direct snap) in Week 1.

Of the group, Laviska Shenault ($6,600 DK, $7,500 FD) is surely the most fun because of his versatility, and the Jaguars are clearly interested in getting the ball in his hands. He's likely be to popular anyway, but a Chark absence should push his popularity up even higher than Cole's. We also have Chris Conley ($2,200 DK, $6,500 FD), who was targeted seven times last week, but he feels like just as much of a flier as anyone else in his price range, likely taking him out of consideration for cash games or single-entry GPPs.

No one in this group really jumps off the page, but if you don't want to captain Minshew then relying on one of them isn't the worst idea. Chark obviously takes up a decent amount of the salary cap on DraftKings because of the multiplier, but a Shenault captain only costs $9,900, leaving plenty of salary flexibility where you can at least use someone like Minshew in the flex. Captaining any of the Dolphins' wide receivers seems a bit too cavalier for those making few lineups, but it makes sense from a contrarian standpoint.

RUNNING BACKS

Given the emphasis on the quarterbacks and their respective pass catchers, the running backs in this game could be a bit under the radar (not completely under the radar, but maybe just a bit under it).

The lead backs for both teams don't exactly find themselves in the upper tier of fantasy running backs, but they are productive players who can contribute to fantasy lineups. Miami's backfield is the more crowded of the two, with Myles Gaskin ($7,200 DK, $10,000 FD) leading the way ahead of Matt Breida ($1,800 DK, $7,000 FD) and Jordan Howard ($4,800 DK, $8,500 FD). From a volume perspective, Gaskin is the guy, as he leads them in carries (16), targets (11), snap share (64 percent) and routes run (49), but there's a bit of a red flag when we see Howard, who actually is the least used (11 percent snap share) of the three, is second in the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line (I stole most of that from Jerry Donabedian again). Gaskin is the most expensive because of his usage, and he's likely to be the most popular because of it, with people getting cute if they roster Howard for those goal-line carries, which makes Breida a bit of an interesting play if anything were to happen to Gaskin. Unfortunately, if they all stay healthy (and we hope they do, of course), Breida's going to have to make a big play on one of his few touches to have a big fantasy impact.

The Jacksonville situation is much clearer, though that's only if you discount Shenault's five carries, which came on eight backfield snaps. James Robinson ($7,800 DK, $14,000 FD) is the most expensive running back in the game, and he's the fifth-most expensive player on DraftKings and third-most on FanDuel. I'll continue to steal from Jerry for this exercise, especially after reading that Robinson is on pace for over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns this season:

• Robinson's snap share was down from 68 percent in Week 1, but he actually got more snaps (38-34), more targets and the same number of carries, because the Jags ran far more plays overall. Robinson is on pace for 256-1,312-8 rushing and 32-368-0 on 40 targets. Maybe Devine Ozigbo (hamstring) or Ryquell Armstead (reserve/COVID-19) eventually join the mix and steal some work, but Robinson has solidified the lead role.
• Thompson scored a TD and saw a large increase from 24 percent snap share in the opener, but he's still at only six targets and two catches through two games. He's really only playing in obvious passing situations.

Robinson is certainly a solid path into the Jaguars' offense without overly relying on Minshew, and he could be a popular captain/MVP because of that. Chris Thompson ($2,600 DK, $9,500 FD) is really more of a third-down back, making him a reasonable flex play but a pretty poor captain/MVP. And I guess after seeing what happened on Monday night, we shouldn't completely rule out fullback Bruce Miller ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), but that's really only for people who make a ton of lineups.

KICKERS

With a number of cheaper players who could break off a big play at any moment, it's tough to get excited about Miami's Jason Sanders ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD), who as of writing is the only available kicker in the game because Josh Lambo of Jacksonville has been placed on IR with a hip injury. A 48.0-point total is solid enough where the kickers should get consideration in cash games, but when they're in the same salary tier as guys like Howard, Ford, Thompson, Conley and Breida (Howard is the only one more expensive than the kickers), then the upside is tough to see for tournaments.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither defense is that good on their own, but we have to remember that fantasy scoring is more about turnovers and (hopefully) touchdowns than it is points allowed. With that said, we have a Jaguars ($6,400 DK) defense facing Fitzpatrick, who has turned the ball over four times already, and a Dolphins ($4,000 DK) unit up against Minshew, who has three turnovers and has been sacked six times. There's significant variance when it comes to the position, and targeting the Jaguars means you'll have to make much more of a salary sacrifice than the Dolphins. That being said, you don't have to roster either one if someone in their range goes off, as they need touchdowns to really make it worthwhile to roster them.