This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was fairly uneventful in Survivor world, unless you bet it all on the Chiefs. Their loss was a bit of a surprise. But few Survivors still had them available anyway, so it didn't impact Survivor pools much.
In my pool, only four entrants got bounced (three on the Texans; why you'd risk it all on the Texans is beyond me). Of the original 414, 90 remain.
On to Week 9.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy. (It seems kind of unnecessary to include this every week, but now it's kind of thing, so it keeps going.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Cardinals | 49.8% | 332.5 | 76.9% | 11.51 |
| SAINTS | Bears | 38.4% | 315 | 75.9% | 9.25 |
| FALCONS | Vikings | 3.5% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.15 |
| RAVENS | Seahawks | 2.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.80 |
| Chargers | JETS | 1.0% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.41 |
| STEELERS | Titans | 0.9% | 135 | 57.4% | 0.38 |
| Colts | PANTHERS | 0.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.38 |
| PATRIOTS | Commanders | 0.9% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.35 |
| RAIDERS | Giants | 0.6% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.27 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.4% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.16 |
| BENGALS | Bills | 0.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.08 |
| TEXANS | Buccaneers | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| PACKERS | Rams | 0.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.04 |
| CHIEFS | Dolphins | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
Last week was fairly uneventful in Survivor world, unless you bet it all on the Chiefs. Their loss was a bit of a surprise. But few Survivors still had them available anyway, so it didn't impact Survivor pools much.
In my pool, only four entrants got bounced (three on the Texans; why you'd risk it all on the Texans is beyond me). Of the original 414, 90 remain.
On to Week 9.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy. (It seems kind of unnecessary to include this every week, but now it's kind of thing, so it keeps going.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Cardinals | 49.8% | 332.5 | 76.9% | 11.51 |
| SAINTS | Bears | 38.4% | 315 | 75.9% | 9.25 |
| FALCONS | Vikings | 3.5% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.15 |
| RAVENS | Seahawks | 2.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.80 |
| Chargers | JETS | 1.0% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.41 |
| STEELERS | Titans | 0.9% | 135 | 57.4% | 0.38 |
| Colts | PANTHERS | 0.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.38 |
| PATRIOTS | Commanders | 0.9% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.35 |
| RAIDERS | Giants | 0.6% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.27 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.4% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.16 |
| BENGALS | Bills | 0.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.08 |
| TEXANS | Buccaneers | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| PACKERS | Rams | 0.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.04 |
| CHIEFS | Dolphins | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It's a tough week for Survivor. This week's slate has two big favorites in the Browns and Saints and little else. And the Browns and Saints aren't exactly easy picks — taking either is a vote against the opponent more than anything. But the Browns and Saints should be available to most Survivors, so at least you don't have to make some really hard choices.
There's no pot-odds play this week, though it's not out of the question to fade the Browns and Saints. If one loses, it would knock out a good chunk of your pool. Alas, I don't like the alternatives enough to go that route. Give me the Browns.
Picks below are in order of preference. If there's another team you're considering, let us know in the comments.
My Picks
Cleveland Browns
The best thing Cleveland has going for it is this week's opponent, the Cardinals. Arizona traded QB Joshua Dobbs to the Vikings on Tuesday, which must mean Kyler Murray is ready to return. Then again, would Arizona really bring back Murray against a fierce defense on the road? Clayton Tune is reportedly expected to start, but the Cardinals have not confirmed it. Tune seemingly makes Cleveland a safer Survivor pick, but Murray in his first game back from an ACL injury doesn't inspire fear either. The second-best thing Cleveland has going for it is its stout defense, which should take care of either quarterback. As long as PJ Walker doesn't throw a bunch of picks, the Browns should prevail (and, who knows, maybe Deshaun Watson will return this week). Plus, the Browns are coming off a loss, which probably has them juiced.
New Orleans Saints
The best thing New Orleans has going for it is this week's opponent, the Bears. Tyson Bagent will start again for Chicago. Bagent has 1/3 TD/INT and a 6.0 YPA in place of Justin Fields. The Saints are inconsistent, but Alvin Kamara can still dominate. The Bears traded for Montez Sweat on Tuesday, which perhaps changes the atmosphere in Chicago — it at least gives the team something positive to focus on for one week. But unless Sweat can play quarterback, his arrival probably won't matter much. Saints at home with a loud crowd at their back will be tough for Bagent to overcome.
Atlanta Falcons
The best thing Atlanta has going for it is this week's opponent, the Vikings. Fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall is expected to start for the injured Kirk Cousins, though the aforementioned Dobbs could also play. Hall is short by NFL QB standards (6-foot) and has limited arm strength, and Justin Jefferson is still on the shelf. The Falcons are a middling team with four unimpressive wins. But it's doubtful Hall thrives in his first start on the road.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers' offense came alive last week and Austin Ekeler finally looked healthy and explosive again. But it came against the Bears. This week's opponent, the Jets, are night and day different defensively than the Bears. But offensively, New York is just as putrid. The Jets combined with the Giants last week for one of the worst exhibitions the sport has seen — the Jets alone punted 11 times, lost two fumbles and had another possession end on downs. Good golly. Never put it past the Chargers to Charger, but the Jets just can't keep up with them. In fact, the Chargers would be listed above the Falcons if it didn't ruin that repetitive opening-line joke.
Notable Omission:
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are seemingly in a pretty good spot at home against the Seahawks, but it doesn't seem to me to be the gimme that Vegas and the 2.7 percent of Survivors picking them think it is. No reason to risk Survivor on what should be a hard-fought game with the NFC West leader.
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