This article is part of our Survivor series.
For the first time this season, Survivor went according to form last week. The favorites all won. So, unless you did something completely reckless, congratulations, you survived another week.
In my pool, none was eliminated. Of the original 442, 10 still remain.
On to Week 7.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMMANDERS | Panthers | 34.9% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 7.98 |
| BILLS | Titans | 31.5% | 400 | 80.0% | 6.30 |
| RAMS | Raiders | 11.6% | 305 | 75.3% | 2.86 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 7.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.00 |
| JAGUARS | Patriots^ | 6.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.91 |
| COLTS | Dolphins | 2.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.96 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.5% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.59 |
| FALCONS | Seahawks | 0.8% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.32 |
| Ravens | BUCCANEERS | 0.6% | 175 | 63.6% | 0.22 |
| Broncos | SAINTS | 0.5% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.22 |
| PACKERS | Texans | 0.4% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.17 |
| Chargers | CARDINALS | 0.3% | 134 | 57.3% | 0.13 |
| STEELERS | Jets | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 0.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.09 |
| 49ERS | Chiefs | 0.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
^ at London
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Commanders and Bills comprise two-thirds of the picks this week. One could fade both, hoping for a double-knockout pot-odds play. But that's a lot to ask.
For the first time this season, Survivor went according to form last week. The favorites all won. So, unless you did something completely reckless, congratulations, you survived another week.
In my pool, none was eliminated. Of the original 442, 10 still remain.
On to Week 7.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMMANDERS | Panthers | 34.9% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 7.98 |
| BILLS | Titans | 31.5% | 400 | 80.0% | 6.30 |
| RAMS | Raiders | 11.6% | 305 | 75.3% | 2.86 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 7.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.00 |
| JAGUARS | Patriots^ | 6.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.91 |
| COLTS | Dolphins | 2.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.96 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.5% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.59 |
| FALCONS | Seahawks | 0.8% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.32 |
| Ravens | BUCCANEERS | 0.6% | 175 | 63.6% | 0.22 |
| Broncos | SAINTS | 0.5% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.22 |
| PACKERS | Texans | 0.4% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.17 |
| Chargers | CARDINALS | 0.3% | 134 | 57.3% | 0.13 |
| STEELERS | Jets | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 0.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.09 |
| 49ERS | Chiefs | 0.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
^ at London
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Commanders and Bills comprise two-thirds of the picks this week. One could fade both, hoping for a double-knockout pot-odds play. But that's a lot to ask. Pick your favorite team.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Washington Commanders
Picking against the Panthers has worked pretty well. The Carolina defense is God-awful and Jayden Daniels should have no trouble picking it apart.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are at home against one of the worst offenses in football. The Titans have topped 17 points once this season. The Bills haven't exactly impressed the last three weeks, but they shouldn't have much trouble with the Titans and Will Levis, who's thrown an INT in every game this season and leads the league with seven picks (despite a bye week).
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have beaten only the Panthers and Giants this year and now go on the road to their intra-state rival. But the Browns are in such a state of futility that the Bengals probably can't mess this up. Cleveland's passing game was putrid before trading Amari Cooper this week. Now, it's liable to set back the forward pass 75 years. Actually, that's an insult to the 1950s Browns. Otto Graham threw for 10.6 yards per attempt in 1953 — still an NFL record (minimum 250 attempts, sorry Sid Luckman). The Browns are going to need Nick Chubb to return and run for 200 yards.
Los Angeles Rams
The Raiders traded Davante Adams this week, leaving the offense without a playmaker, unless you count rookie tight end Brock Bowers ... who has one touchdown this year. The Rams are banged up and won't have a home-field advantage with the Raiders visiting L.A. (what else is new?), but they still have more than enough to beat a Raiders offense that has a 5.8 YPA and more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (two) in three games without Adams.
Indianapolis Colts
Miami has totaled 30 points in three games without Tua Tagovailoa. Now, De'Von Achane has a concussion. If Anthony Richardson avoids throwing interceptions in his expected return, the Colts should be OK. All the better if Jonathan Taylor returns from an ankle injury. The Dolphins are coming off a bye, which perhaps gives slight pause.
NOTABLE OMISSION
Jacksonville Jaguars
The argument for the Jags this week is they stayed in London after last week's game and will have a normal week of preparation while the Patriots have to travel across the pond, etc., etc. But flying Boston to London is not that much farther than Boston to the West Coast. Is travel really that much of a disadvantage? Maybe. But Drake Maye looked credible in his NFL debut last week, and only Carolina is worse defensively than Jacksonville. Risking a Survivor pick on this game seems foolish.
-
Did you know you can bet on the NFL in most states? You can sign up for the best sports betting sites and bet on anything NFL. In addition, you can get thousands in bonuses by redeeming various sportsbook promo codes that give users bonus bets upon registration.
