This article is part of our Survivor series.
Chris Liss wrote the Survivor column the last couple decades for RotoWire. But as he's now doing his own thing, we needed a replacement. Apparently, the math was too daunting for the writers I pitched (I kid), so I'm writing it.
Never fear, I will use the same system Liss perfected. Those unfamiliar with the strategy should start by reading here and here. Those pieces explain the background and principles employed below. In sum, the strategy tells you not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you — because Survivor is not just about surviving as long as possible; it's about surviving while everyone else does not. In any event, read those background pieces.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | JETS | 20.7% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 5.57 |
| Colts | TEXANS | 20.7% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 5.22 |
| TITANS | Giants | 13.2% | 206 | 67.32% | 4.31 |
| 49ers | BEARS | 10.1% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 2.72 |
| Broncos | SEAHAWKS | 9.9% | 225 | 69.23% | 3.05 |
| BENGALS | Steelers | 8.7% | 249 | 71.35% | 2.49 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 3.9% | 206 | 67.32% | 1.27 |
| Eagles | LIONS | 2.7% | 282.5 | 73.86% | 0.71 |
| PANTHERS | Browns | 2.0% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.95 |
| COMMANDERS | Jaguars | 1.7% | 127 | 55.95% | 0.75 |
| Chiefs | CARDINALS | 1.3% | 225 | 69.23% | 0.40 |
| DOLPHINS | Patriots | 1.1% | 166 | 62.41% | 0.41 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 0.7% |
Chris Liss wrote the Survivor column the last couple decades for RotoWire. But as he's now doing his own thing, we needed a replacement. Apparently, the math was too daunting for the writers I pitched (I kid), so I'm writing it.
Never fear, I will use the same system Liss perfected. Those unfamiliar with the strategy should start by reading here and here. Those pieces explain the background and principles employed below. In sum, the strategy tells you not just how likely a team is to win but how much that win is worth to you — because Survivor is not just about surviving as long as possible; it's about surviving while everyone else does not. In any event, read those background pieces.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | JETS | 20.7% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 5.57 |
| Colts | TEXANS | 20.7% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 5.22 |
| TITANS | Giants | 13.2% | 206 | 67.32% | 4.31 |
| 49ers | BEARS | 10.1% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 2.72 |
| Broncos | SEAHAWKS | 9.9% | 225 | 69.23% | 3.05 |
| BENGALS | Steelers | 8.7% | 249 | 71.35% | 2.49 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 3.9% | 206 | 67.32% | 1.27 |
| Eagles | LIONS | 2.7% | 282.5 | 73.86% | 0.71 |
| PANTHERS | Browns | 2.0% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.95 |
| COMMANDERS | Jaguars | 1.7% | 127 | 55.95% | 0.75 |
| Chiefs | CARDINALS | 1.3% | 225 | 69.23% | 0.40 |
| DOLPHINS | Patriots | 1.1% | 166 | 62.41% | 0.41 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 0.7% | 166 | 62.41% | 0.26 |
| Bills | RAMS | 0.6% | 121.5 | 54.85% | 0.27 |
| Packers | VIKINGS | 0.4% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.19 |
| Buccaneers | COWBOYS | 0.4% | 127 | 55.95% | 0.18 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The first thing that pops out is four of the top-5 picks are on the road. Homefield advantage is not what it once was. The second thing is that the picks are pretty evenly spread out, meaning there is no reason to go out on a limb in hopes of a sizable chunk of the pool being eliminated if the favorite is upset. We'll save the pot-odds math for another week. Pick who you like.
My Picks
1. Indianapolis Colts
Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman should overwhelm what could be the worst defense in the league. Taylor rushed for 288 yards and four TDs in two games against the Texans last year, which the Colts won by a combined 62-3. While a couple of rookie defensive backs could help the secondary, Houston didn't do much to improve its front seven.
2. Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson has a point to prove, and the Seahawks' cornerbacks are a mix of injured guys, rookies and journeymen. What's more, how will Seattle score?
3. San Francisco 49ers
The Bears are devoid of playmakers and should struggle against a tough 49ers defense. Perhaps skepticism of Trey Lance is why only 10 percent of the public is on San Francisco, but the 49ers have more than enough offensively to wear down a rebuilding Bears defense.
4. Baltimore Ravens
It's uncertain who will start at quarterback for the Jets. If it's Joe Flacco facing his former team, that at least adds a bit of intrigue to what looks like a mismatch on paper.
Notable Omissions:
Tennessee Titans - The Titans could ride Derrick Henry all day and rely on good defense for a big win. But their passing game is sufficiently suspect to cause hesitation in picking them in survivor.
Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals revamped their offensive line, but I'd like to see it in action first before a matchup against T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward.
