This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was uneventful as none of the top eight teams lost. I say that even though for me personally -- I went all in on the Ravens for pot-odds reasons -- it could not have been more eventful emotionally. And here's how I feel about near misses generally in Survivor.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| BILLS | Texans | 39.9% | 1250 | 92.59 | 2.96 |
| BENGALS | Jaguars | 21.4% | 312.5 | 75.76 | 5.19 |
| Titans | JETS | 17.8% | 310 | 75.61 | 4.34 |
| SAINTS | Giants | 11.0% | 320 | 76.19 | 2.62 |
| Chiefs | Eagles | 3.7% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.93 |
| PACKERS | Steelers | 2.2% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.59 |
| Buccaneers | PATRIOTS | 2.0% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.53 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week there's one Goliath (the Bills) and six roughly equal options below them. We did the math last week where it was close, but I can assure you with the Bills at nearly 93 percent per Vegas, it is not close this week. Where would the Bills ownership need to be to break even with say the Saints?
A Bills win/Saints loss is .925 * .24 = 22%. A Saints win/Bills loss is .76 * .075 = 5.7%. The ratio of 22/5.7 = 3.86. That's the risk ratio.
If the Bills win/Saints lose, 11 go down with the Saints, and 12 others would be expected to lose on other teams, for a total of 23. In your hypothetical $10, 100-person pool, 77 would remain, so $1000/77 = $12.99. And
Last week was uneventful as none of the top eight teams lost. I say that even though for me personally -- I went all in on the Ravens for pot-odds reasons -- it could not have been more eventful emotionally. And here's how I feel about near misses generally in Survivor.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| BILLS | Texans | 39.9% | 1250 | 92.59 | 2.96 |
| BENGALS | Jaguars | 21.4% | 312.5 | 75.76 | 5.19 |
| Titans | JETS | 17.8% | 310 | 75.61 | 4.34 |
| SAINTS | Giants | 11.0% | 320 | 76.19 | 2.62 |
| Chiefs | Eagles | 3.7% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.93 |
| PACKERS | Steelers | 2.2% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.59 |
| Buccaneers | PATRIOTS | 2.0% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.53 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week there's one Goliath (the Bills) and six roughly equal options below them. We did the math last week where it was close, but I can assure you with the Bills at nearly 93 percent per Vegas, it is not close this week. Where would the Bills ownership need to be to break even with say the Saints?
A Bills win/Saints loss is .925 * .24 = 22%. A Saints win/Bills loss is .76 * .075 = 5.7%. The ratio of 22/5.7 = 3.86. That's the risk ratio.
If the Bills win/Saints lose, 11 go down with the Saints, and 12 others would be expected to lose on other teams, for a total of 23. In your hypothetical $10, 100-person pool, 77 would remain, so $1000/77 = $12.99. And 12.99 * 3.86 = $50.14. And $1000/20 = $50. So you'd have to have enough people on the Bills so that only 20 remained if they lost, to get to that $50 in equity. So with 12 expected to lose on other teams, you'd need 68 (68%) on the Bills just to break even!
So the Bills are first with a bullet unless your league is all over them.
My Picks
1. Buffalo Bills
I don't have to tell you why the Bills are a huge favorite at home against a bad team starting a rookie quarterback. That said, the Texans have been well coached, and this is an easy letdown spot. I give the Bills a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
I don't love the spot -- short week off a rare win against their biggest rival -- but until the Jaguars play like an NFL team, we have to presume they're a long shot to beat a non-doormat. I give the Bengals a 76 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are stout on both sides of the line, and the Giants can't run block or pass protect. But New Orleans' offense is low octane, the Giants play well as underdogs and Jameis Winston is still mistake prone. I give the Saints a 74 percent chance to win this game.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game has so much narrative, it's a little dangerous, but with Tom Brady coming off a loss and heading back to New England, I expect the Bucs to show up big. Moreover, Tampa's weakness is the secondary, and the Patriots are not designed to exploit that. I give the Buccaneers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
5. Tennessee Titans
The Titans could be without their top two receivers, and their defense isn't good. The Jets are bad, but they're at home and get a matchup that could be competitive. I give the Titans a 74 percent chance to win this game.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
The Super Bowl hangover is real, and the Chiefs are not good defensively. But the Eagles lost three offensive linemen and looked terrible against the Cowboys. I give the Chiefs a 72 percent chance to win this game.
7. Green Bay Packers
I expected the line to be bigger than 6.5, which makes this feel like a trap game. The Packers defense is vulnerable, and if T.J. Watt plays, the Steelers defense is still stout. But Ben Roethisberger looks shot, and the Steelers receivers are banged up. I give the Packers a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: none
