This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was arguably the least eventful in Survivor history with only one favorite, the Panthers, losing outright, and virtually nobody was on them.
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 27.8% | 355 | 78.02 | 6.11 |
| Cardinals | LIONS | 22.6% | 675 | 87.10 | 2.92 |
| 49ERS | Falcons | 20.1% | 370 | 78.72 | 4.28 |
| BILLS | Panthers | 6.9% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 1.28 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 6.6% | 450 | 81.82 | 1.20 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 4.3% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 0.73 |
| EAGLES | Team | 3.6% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.06 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 1.6% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.58 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 1.6% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.59 |
| Packers | RAVENS | 1.1% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.37 |
| BROWNS | Raiders | 1.0% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.41 |
| RAMS | Seahawks | 0.5% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.16 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 0.4% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
| Titans | STEELERS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.14 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Cardinals are the Vegas pick, but most of the top teams are used by now. As always, late in the year, you'll want to look at who your opponents have available and plan accordingly.
My Picks
1. Buffalo Bills
The Bills showed up in the second half against the Buccaneers, and while I don't like that they had to play into overtime, I'd expect them to bounce back at home against a Panthers squad that's decimated on offense. I give the Bills an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are coming off a loss, which should ensure they're focused against a weak
Last week was arguably the least eventful in Survivor history with only one favorite, the Panthers, losing outright, and virtually nobody was on them.
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 27.8% | 355 | 78.02 | 6.11 |
| Cardinals | LIONS | 22.6% | 675 | 87.10 | 2.92 |
| 49ERS | Falcons | 20.1% | 370 | 78.72 | 4.28 |
| BILLS | Panthers | 6.9% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 1.28 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 6.6% | 450 | 81.82 | 1.20 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 4.3% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 0.73 |
| EAGLES | Team | 3.6% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.06 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 1.6% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.58 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 1.6% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.59 |
| Packers | RAVENS | 1.1% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.37 |
| BROWNS | Raiders | 1.0% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.41 |
| RAMS | Seahawks | 0.5% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.16 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 0.4% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
| Titans | STEELERS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.49 | 0.14 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Cardinals are the Vegas pick, but most of the top teams are used by now. As always, late in the year, you'll want to look at who your opponents have available and plan accordingly.
My Picks
1. Buffalo Bills
The Bills showed up in the second half against the Buccaneers, and while I don't like that they had to play into overtime, I'd expect them to bounce back at home against a Panthers squad that's decimated on offense. I give the Bills an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are coming off a loss, which should ensure they're focused against a weak Lions team that's getting some key players back. I give the Cardinals an 85 percent chance to win this game.
3. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are coming off a bye and facing a Jets team without its key outside playmakers. I give them an 82 percent chance to win this game.
4. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have been worse at home this year, and the Falcons have showed up more often than not. But San Francisco's getting healthy at the right time, and the Falcons don't have the defense to slow them down. I give the 49ers an 81 percent chance to win this game.
5. Dallas Cowboys
The Giants with Mike Glennon are bottom of the barrel, but the Cowboys are missing Tyron Smith, the second most important player in the offense, and the Giants defense is passable. I give the Cowboys a 77 percent chance to win this game.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are one of the top teams in the league, but the Saints have had their number the last couple years, and New Orleans is finally healthy on both sides of the line, and also has Alvin Kamara back. I give the Bucs a 75 percent chance to win this game.
7. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should handle the Seahawks, but they have a covid outbreak, and it's unclear how deep it goes. For now the key Rams -- Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp (and likely Jalen Ramsey who was on the list last week) -- should play, but that could change tomorrow. I give the Rams a provisional 67 percent chance to win this game.
8. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are in Baltimore which is not typically an easy venue, but the Ravens are likely to be without Lamar Jackson. I give the Packers a 64 percent chance to win this game.
9. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are coming off a bye and get a banged-up Team team at home. I give them a 62 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Jacksonville Jaguars -- They're no better than a coin flip against anyone.
Kansas City Chiefs -- They're likely missing Chris Jones, and it's a short-week road game against a solid team that beat them earlier this year.
Minnesota Vikings -- The Vikings are life and death against everyone, and I'd expect more of the same in a Monday night road game in freezing Chicago.
