Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions

The season has generally gone well for the 7-1 Lions, with the exception of the devastating season-ending injury suffered by star defender Aidan Hutchinson, but the good news is Detroit has looked strong enough to push forward even without their top defender. Not just that, but the Lions made the trade-deadline acquisition of Za'Darius Smith, who has five sacks on the season. While the Lions look strong, the otherwise 6-3 and division-leading Texans are limping into this game as injury-related troubles weigh them down. They might get back star wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) for this game, but even if they do the Texans are managing a collapsing offensive line while top defender Will Anderson sits out this contest. The result is the Lions are favored by 3.5 points on the road, with the over/under at 50.0.

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff ($9600 DK, $13500 FD) rarely needs to throw much for the Lions to win, but like most weeks he should be efficient in this game. The Lions are well-stocked on offense and the absence of Will Anderson is huge against the Texans defense. If the Texans somehow make this a close game then it could be a big one for Goff, but if the Texans offense remains flat then Goff might be in more of a caretaker role.

C.J. Stroud ($9800 DK, $13000 FD) enjoys almost none of the benefits that Goff does – the Houston offensive line is a mess and due to injuries he has had no pass-catching assistance to speak of – but there in theory might be more fantasy upside with Stroud just because he needs to carry the Texans offense, for better or worse. If Collins and Dell are both active and close to their usual levels of play, then Stroud could make a strong showing despite the difficult matchup. He needs those wideouts, though.

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon ($10800 DK, $14500 FD) has a tough matchup, both because the Lions are elite against the run and because the Houston offensive line troubles occur at the same time that the Houston passing game has imploded. It would actually be good news for Mixon if Collins and Dell are both active. The Texans really need Mixon to have a good game to win this one. Dare Ogunbowale ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) is the next running back up, though the Texans hope he won't have to play much here.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($9200 DK, $12000 FD) and David Montgomery ($8200 DK, $11000 FD) are always a difficult call on single-game slates, because they are usually both the Right answer to some extent, but they're both so expensive it's difficult to budget room for the duo on a single lineup card. Sometimes both is indeed the right answer, but when chasing tournament victories it might be best to hitch your wagon to one of the two, even if you have to hedge with two lineups. With that said, the Lions mean to make both runners productive every single week.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11000 DK, $15000 FD) and Jameson Williams ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) should be able to avoid top corner Derek Stingley, so offensive coordinator Ben Johnson should be able to make at least one of these wideouts productive in this game as the Lions more so attack corners Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre. Sam LaPorta ($6200 DK, $9500 FD) remains highly capable if overqualified in Detroit's extremely run-heavy offense, but guessing when LaPorta might get his next shot is next to impossible. Tim Patrick ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) is capable in his own right, but with Williams back it probably reduces Patrick and Kalif Raymond to punt plays. Brock Wright ($2000 DK, $5500 FD) is always a good punt play at tight end, where he mostly blocks but still plays starter-like snap counts.

Nico Collins ($10000 DK, $12500 FD) is probably the toughest question of the slate, if active. He'd normally be a borderline must-pick, but Collins only logged a limited practice Friday of this week. If Collins is anywhere near 100 percent then he's probably too much for these Detroit corners. If Collins isn't the biggest question on the slate then it might be Tank Dell ($8800 DK, $10500 FD), who's questionable himself with a back injury that flared up Friday. If neither can serve as the WR1 for Houston then the Texans offense is basically toast, but the next pass catchers in line appear to be some combination of Dalton Schultz ($5200 DK, $9500 FD), Xavier Hutchinson ($4600 DK, $8000 FD) and Robert Woods ($3200 DK, $7500 FD), but good luck guessing which of them will do anything, if any of them. Cade Stover ($1600 DK, $6500 FD) is the TE2 and an arguable punt play.

KICKER

Jake Bates ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) wasn't allowed to kick field goals in college and wasn't especially accurate in his CFL stint, but he has yet to miss a field goal for Detroit and if nothing else boasts one of the stronger kicking legs in the league. The opportunity level should be solid for Bates here, and he has the range to strike from beyond 50.

Kai'mi Fairbairn ($5200 DK, $9000 FD) is definitely the more proven kicker between himself and Bates, and overall you would project Fairbairn as the better fantasy option. For this particular game, though, the script might not be favorable for Fairbairn. The Texans have struggled to get into scoring range, and if they manage to do so in this game they might need more touchdowns than field goals.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Texans ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) should have had a strong defense this year, but their corner depth is poor and without top defender Will Anderson the otherwise-productive pass rush might fall flat, especially against Detroit's elite offensive line. The Lions are arguably the worst team to face as a fantasy defense.

The Lions ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) were not supposed to have an especially great defense in 2024, but their cornerback upgrades have proven significant and the excellent run defense of 2023 remains intact. With the Texans offensive line a mess and its wideout personnel about as bad due to injuries, the Detroit defense seems teed up well here.