On Target: More Than Just The Looks

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Updated on October 16, 2012 6:20PM EST

They say that the cream always rises to the top and finally here in Week 6, we're starting to see the evidence. While this week's list of target leaders is riddled with big names that we expect to see here on a regular basis, the Target Percentage Leaderboard (TPL) is also starting to take shape as we're starting to see a greater line of separation between the contenders and the pretenders. Names that we would expect to see up top, both in actual targets and total fantasy points, have steadily risen while those flash-in-the-pan guys who may have started off hot are coming back to Earth and slowly starting to fade into obscurity. Of course, there are notable exceptions, but that's what the term "breakout season" is all about.

So let's take a look at some of the notables from Week 6 and afterward, we'll see how they fit in with the overall TPL...

Top Targets from Week 6

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	95	2	36	15	13	5	62.5%	86.7%	41.7%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	138	1	58	14	10	2	22.2%	71.4%	24.1%
Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	133	0	52	14	11	0	0.0%	78.6%	26.9%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	135	0	45	13	6	1	10.0%	46.2%	28.9%
Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	58	1	28	13	6	3	42.9%	46.2%	46.4%
Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	121	3	37	12	9	3

So let's take a look at some of the notables from Week 6 and afterward, we'll see how they fit in with the overall TPL...

Top Targets from Week 6

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	95	2	36	15	13	5	62.5%	86.7%	41.7%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	138	1	58	14	10	2	22.2%	71.4%	24.1%
Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	133	0	52	14	11	0	0.0%	78.6%	26.9%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	135	0	45	13	6	1	10.0%	46.2%	28.9%
Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	58	1	28	13	6	3	42.9%	46.2%	46.4%
Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	121	3	37	12	9	3	37.5%	75.0%	32.4%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	93	1	36	12	6	1	100.0%	50.0%	33.3%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	80	0	58	12	6	0	0.0%	50.0%	20.7%
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	75	0	38	12	8	1	20.0%	66.7%	31.6%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	60	0	44	12	4	0	0.0%	33.3%	27.3%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	135	2	46	11	7	2	100.0%	63.6%	23.9%
Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	82	0	33	11	6	0	0.0%	54.5%	33.3%
Kenny Britt	WR	TEN	62	1	44	11	4	3	50.0%	36.4%	25.0%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	56	1	52	11	6	2	40.0%	54.5%	21.2%
Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	130	1	46	10	6	1	25.0%	60.0%	21.7%
Randall Cobb	WR	GB	102	0	37	10	7	2	25.0%	70.0%	27.0%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	87	0	44	10	5	0	0.0%	50.0%	22.7%
Antonio Gates	TE	SD	81	2	41	10	6	3	75.0%	60.0%	24.4%
Mario Manningham	WR	SF	72	0	37	10	5	0	0.0%	50.0%	27.0%
Michael Jenkins	WR	MIN	67	1	52	10	6	0	0.0%	60.0%	19.2%
Nate Washington	WR	TEN	57	0	44	10	3	1	16.7%	30.0%	22.7%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	20	0	40	10	4	0	0.0%	40.0%	25.0%

Not too many unfamiliar faces this week, are there? In fact, of the top 10 most targeted receivers this week, only one, Donnie Avery, was found outside the top 30 NFL receivers and drafted later than the seventh round. As I said in the beginning, the cream always rises to the top.

While Jason Witten and Miles Austin have both been favorites of Tony Romo in the past, it's obvious this season that Dez Bryant has moved into that role. His target percentage has steadily increased each week and the fifteen targets he saw in Week 6 vaults him over Witten for the Cowboys' target lead this season. That's definitely something you should be watching when discussing trades, especially if someone is trying to price gouge you on Austin or Witten. Also, if you're looking to buy on Bryant, don't be discouraged by all of this criticism he is taking for some of his dropped passes. Yes, he had five red zone looks this week and only came down with two scores, but of the top 60 most targeted receivers in the NFL right now, Bryant still ranks eighth with a 70.8-percent catch rate. If his drops were that devastating or even common, Romo wouldn't be looking his way as often as he does.

Kudos to you if you exhibited patience with Jordy Nelson and didn't deal him off for some one-week wonder. While he wasn't doing much end zone dancing before this week, you were wise to pay close attention to the fact that he was still the most targeted receiver on the Packers. It was only a matter of time before he broke out, evidenced in Week 6.

Not only did Mario Manningham have a breakout week for targets, but he's also now found his way onto the TPL down below. With defenses making it a point to clamp down on Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, 49ers quarterback Alex Smith has made a concerted effort to build his on-field rapport with Manningham. He had his first touchdown reception last week and with 10 targets this time out, it's apparent that his opportunities are growing.

Vikings receiver Michael Jenkins makes an appearance this week, but you'll probably want to take that with a grain of salt. His 10 targets were a product of both Minnesota having to air it out after falling behind the Redskins and the fact that Jerome Simpson was out again with a back injury. If Simpson is out for any length of time, then Jenkins might see a few extra looks his way, but overall, the Vikings don't fall behind like that too often and the majority of targets still belong to Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph.

This week, Antonio Gates makes his first appearance of the season in this column and it should be the first of many. Unlike others that show up here and not below in the TPL, Gates, now healthy, should continue to appear on the Weekly Targets Leaderboard and will begin his ascension on the TPL in no time. In fact, his 16.7-percent target rate just missed the cut-off this week, so once he's back from his Week 7 bye, expect him to establish himself as a mainstay.

Now let's take a look at the overall...

Target Percentage Leaderboard

Player Name	Pos	Team	Yards	TD	Pass Att	Targets	Recpt	RZTgts	RZTgt%	Catch %	Target %
Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	496	3	156	56	35	7	43.8%	62.5%	35.9%
Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	593	2	221	70	41	7	26.9%	58.6%	31.7%
Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	370	4	145	46	20	6	35.3%	43.5%	31.7%
A.J. Green	WR	CIN	628	6	216	67	43	10	37.0%	64.2%	31.0%
Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	316	3	184	57	27	7	33.3%	47.4%	31.0%
Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	496	6	227	70	43	11	28.2%	61.4%	30.8%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	423	3	217	66	34	3	30.0%	51.5%	30.4%
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	430	3	221	67	36	11	26.8%	53.7%	30.3%
Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	540	1	210	62	49	3	10.7%	79.0%	29.5%
Wes Welker	WR	NE	622	2	243	66	48	6	17.1%	72.7%	27.2%
Steve Smith	WR	CAR	388	0	140	38	21	2	11.8%	55.3%	27.1%
Brian Hartline	WR	MIA	514	1	198	53	29	7	24.1%	54.7%	26.8%
Danny Amendola	WR	STL	395	2	186	49	32	6	35.3%	65.3%	26.3%
Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	337	1	176	44	30	1	8.3%	68.2%	25.0%
Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	346	1	197	49	29	0	0.0%	59.2%	24.9%
Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	364	2	197	48	34	5	27.8%	70.8%	24.4%
Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	293	1	140	34	22	5	29.4%	64.7%	24.3%
Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	558	1	231	56	35	5	14.7%	62.5%	24.2%
Davone Bess	WR	MIA	388	0	198	47	28	3	10.3%	59.6%	23.7%
Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	401	1	243	57	34	7	20.0%	59.6%	23.5%
DeSean Jackson	WR	PHI	465	1	231	54	29	4	19.0%	53.7%	23.4%
Eric Decker	WR	DEN	441	3	227	53	34	10	30.3%	64.2%	23.3%
Tony Gonzalez	TE	ATL	430	4	236	54	43	5	16.1%	79.6%	22.9%
Julio Jones	WR	ATL	376	4	236	54	30	10	32.3%	55.6%	22.9%
Roddy White	WR	ATL	553	4	236	53	37	8	25.8%	69.8%	22.5%
Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	280	2	152	34	20	7	25.0%	58.8%	22.4%
Justin Blackmon	WR	JAX	119	0	148	33	13	2	11.1%	39.4%	22.3%
Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	285	2	234	52	33	8	26.7%	63.5%	22.2%
Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	358	2	190	42	25	3	17.6%	59.5%	22.1%
Donnie Avery	WR	IND	258	1	221	47	21	4	15.4%	44.7%	21.3%
Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	542	3	227	48	32	3	9.1%	66.7%	21.1%
Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	410	4	227	48	32	6	20.0%	66.7%	21.1%
Marques Colston	WR	NO	444	4	240	50	28	13	32.5%	56.0%	20.8%
Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	429	1	212	44	28	4	22.2%	63.6%	20.8%
Jason Witten	TE	DAL	276	1	197	40	27	3	16.7%	67.5%	20.3%
Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	357	3	190	38	26	3	17.6%	68.4%	20.0%
Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	243	2	212	42	25	6	33.3%	59.5%	19.8%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	225	5	210	41	25	9	32.1%	61.0%	19.5%
Vernon Davis	TE	SF	340	4	176	34	23	2	16.7%	67.6%	19.3%
Mike Williams	WR	TB	332	3	145	28	15	4	23.5%	53.6%	19.3%
Mario Manningham	WR	SF	258	1	176	33	24	3	25.0%	72.7%	18.8%
Malcom Floyd	WR	SD	418	1	209	39	25	0	0.0%	64.1%	18.7%
Brent Celek	TE	PHI	357	1	231	43	25	5	23.8%	58.1%	18.6%
Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	286	4	221	41	22	4	9.8%	53.7%	18.6%
Brandon Pettigrew	TE	DET	261	1	231	42	26	4	11.8%	61.9%	18.2%
Denarius Moore	WR	OAK	287	2	195	35	17	5	22.7%	48.6%	17.9%
Fred Davis	TE	WAS	312	0	170	30	23	2	11.8%	76.7%	17.6%
Jermaine Gresham	TE	CIN	306	2	216	38	25	5	18.5%	65.8%	17.6%
Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	252	3	240	42	25	7	17.5%	59.5%	17.5%
Ray Rice	RB	BAL	233	0	212	37	24	2	11.1%	64.9%	17.5%
Scott Chandler	TE	BUF	219	4	184	32	17	3	14.3%	53.1%	17.4%
Nate Burleson	WR	DET	224	2	231	40	26	4	11.8%	65.0%	17.3%
Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	356	3	243	42	29	7	20.0%	69.0%	17.3%
Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	345	4	197	34	21	6	23.1%	61.8%	17.3%
Miles Austin	WR	DAL	331	3	197	34	20	3	16.7%	58.8%	17.3%
Heath Miller	TE	PIT	237	4	197	34	25	10	38.5%	73.5%	17.3%
Brandon Gibson	WR	STL	275	2	186	32	20	2	11.8%	62.5%	17.2%
Brandon LaFell	WR	CAR	226	1	140	24	13	3	17.6%	54.2%	17.1%
Andrew Hawkins	WR	CIN	329	2	216	37	25	3	11.1%	67.6%	17.1%
Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	394	4	212	36	21	2	11.1%	58.3%	17.0%

Similarly to the Week 6 Targets Leaderboard, the best of the best, or at least those that should be scoring the most fantasy points if we go by draft position, are rising to the top here. Out of the first dozen names listed, only Brian Hartline is considered an outlier with respect to early-season expectations. And even he, after zero targets this week, is beginning to slide back down.

Though Wes Welker will likely remain on this leaderboard throughout the season, one should take notice of his slight drop in target percentage this week. While I'm sure that the match-up with the Seahawks defense was a contributor, the return of Aaron Hernandez is likely to affect Welker's targets as the season progresses. Remember, Welker's target percentage was down at 22.0-percent before Hernandez got hurt and only climbed to its current mark in his absence. I'm not saying he's going to be a bust, but he might not be as productive as you'd like.

The Greg Jennings injury isn't just helping Jordy Nelson in the targets department, but also Randall Cobb, who has turned out to be a very reliable receiver for Aaron Rodgers this season. He's not the deep threat that Nelson may be, but Cobb has done well with yards after the catch and has been a big part of the Packers short-passing game as defenses are trying to take away the downfield bombs. Another 10 targets this week actually has him breaking into the TPL for the first time since Week 1 and for as long as Jennings remains out, Cobb should continue to get the looks.

My fantasy man-crush on Andrew Hawkins appears to finally be over. After three straight disappointing weeks in which he had favorable match-ups, it might be time to cut the cord. I don't recommend dropping him outright just yet, but if we're going by the TPL, Hawkins has begun to plummet down the rankings and is getting less and less attention from Andy Dalton. While he may have three red zone targets over his last three games, that's not nearly enough to keep him in your active lineup.

If you want to see the perfect example of "sharing the love," then look no further than the Atlanta Falcons. Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones are all nicely tucked together here on the leaderboard with target percentages of just under 23-percent. Matt Ryan has no problem with equal distribution, since it helps keep defenses from keying in on one guy in particular. Jones might have to increase that catch rate if he wants to continue to see the same amount of looks as the other two, but his passes are coming through an awful lot of traffic as well, so a little leeway is allowed.

With the injury to Danny Amendola, we were wondering just who on that Rams team would step up and take his place as Sam Bradford's go-to guy. Well, after nine targets this week, the appearance of Brandon Gibson probably gives us our answer. However, don't rule out Chris Givens just yet, as he saw seven targets this week and has been a growing part of the Rams' overall passing game this year.

Just missing the cut this week, but likely to re-appear on the TPL next week include:Antonio Gates (16.7%), Jacob Tamme (16.7%), Darren McFadden (16.4%), Darren Sproles (16.3%), Jeremy Kerley (16.1%)

TPL Risers to Monitor: Mike Williams (TB), Nate Burleson, Denarius Moore
TPL Fallers to Monitor: Brian Hartline, Michael Crabtree, Rob Gronkowski

Week 7 Match-Up to Watch: Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills – this game could turn into a fantasy dream as two of the league's worst pass defenses match up for this one. Combined, they've allowed 3,292 yards through the air with 26 passing touchdowns. The average pass goes for 12.9 yards against Buffalo while the average against Tennessee is 11.3. Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Kendall Wright and even Jared Cook should have strong days against the Bills while Steve Johnson, Donald Jones and Scott Chandler should all have equally solid days against the Titans.

Week 7 Potential Breakouts:Donnie Avery, Stephen Hill, Martellus Bennett

Week 7 Potential Busts:Steve Smith (CAR), Vernon Davis, Josh Gordon

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