This article is part of our On Target series.
The new hot-button word on Fantasy Twitter right now is "Air Yards". The slogan was coined by Josh Hersmeyer of Rotoviz and it seems like you can't open up a fantasy article or DFS slate breakdown with someone bringing up Air Yards or market share of Air Yards. We've talked about market share in the past in this column but as a refresher, it refers to the percentage of a team's total targets (or yards, or touchdowns, or Air Yards) that an individual player receivers, while Air Yards are defined as the total number of yards thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to what would be the point of the catch on a play in which a receiver is targeted, whether the result is a completion or incompletion. If you add them up over a game or a season, you get a receiver's total Air Yards.
Most research indicates that Air Yards are a predictive and not descriptive metric and that when leveraged with targets, it can be a very useful tool. When using the combination of those two tools, we can get a fairly good idea of what a player's game-to-game output in terms of volume is likely to look like.
In what follows, I will detail 10 players whose Air Yards and target combinations are interesting for our purposes in fantasy.
Jeffery's uninspired performance with the Bears last season pushed him down the board in fantasy drafts this year. However, through two games, he leads the
The new hot-button word on Fantasy Twitter right now is "Air Yards". The slogan was coined by Josh Hersmeyer of Rotoviz and it seems like you can't open up a fantasy article or DFS slate breakdown with someone bringing up Air Yards or market share of Air Yards. We've talked about market share in the past in this column but as a refresher, it refers to the percentage of a team's total targets (or yards, or touchdowns, or Air Yards) that an individual player receivers, while Air Yards are defined as the total number of yards thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to what would be the point of the catch on a play in which a receiver is targeted, whether the result is a completion or incompletion. If you add them up over a game or a season, you get a receiver's total Air Yards.
Most research indicates that Air Yards are a predictive and not descriptive metric and that when leveraged with targets, it can be a very useful tool. When using the combination of those two tools, we can get a fairly good idea of what a player's game-to-game output in terms of volume is likely to look like.
In what follows, I will detail 10 players whose Air Yards and target combinations are interesting for our purposes in fantasy.
Jeffery's uninspired performance with the Bears last season pushed him down the board in fantasy drafts this year. However, through two games, he leads the entire NFL in Air Yards and is tied for sixth in total targets. The Eagles' inability to generate solid success rates on the ground with LeGarrette Blount and Wendell Smallwood in combination with Carson Wentz's apparent step forward as a passer are already painting a picture of solid volume for Alshon. With only a 50 percent catch rate thus far (below his career average), there should be even better games for him coming. I rate Alshon as one of the best buy lows in fantasy right now.
Unlike Alshon, Cooks' transition to a new team with a better offense has not been inspiring thus far. He did draw three fairly deep PI calls in the first game against the Chiefs, but he then no-showed against his old team in New Orleans. Through two games, he has only 11 targets and 193 Air Yards with a 23 percent market share of the Patriots' total Air Yards. I would not be panic selling Cooks in leagues where I owned him, but if I was getting 90 cents on the dollar in a trade, it would be something I would pursue. Perhaps a high ceiling RB2 like Dalvin Cook plus Cooks could get you Ty Montgomery, which is an offer I would float.
Unlike most of the other players we will discuss today, Kelce actually has more real yards than Air Yards due to his tremendous ability after the catch and more encouragingly, the innovative ways in which Andy Reid is getting him the ball. This is likely the last week that any Kelce owner would entertain a trade for him as he has had one bad game and one great game (however even in the bad game, he was a focal point of the Chiefs offense). Tyreek Hill's inability to be a true WR1 means that Kelce is actually more likely to play that role and lead the offense in total targets, which is a hugely encouraging sign for owners who took him early in the their leagues.
While the Jaguars defense looked great in Week 1 against the Texans, my suspicion is that most defenses are going to look great against the Texans. The Jags are likely to be in a negative game script in a majority of their contests and with no Allen Robinson, it is the former USC standout that is picking up the slack. He is third in the NFL in Weighted Opportunity Ranking, which is a stat that combines market share of Air Yards with total targets to help determine a player's offensive involvement. I really like Lee as a buy in 12-team leagues, as it is likely that his owner is not incredibly high on him.
Goodwin is a real curiosity to me this year because he is basically not a good football player. Going back to his days at the University of Texas, he has never had a 500-yard season. He is the answer to the question, "What would happen if a track star played football?" and yet I still find him in intriguing in this 49ers offense. His average depth of target comes 14.2 yards down the field and he has a 44 percent market share of the 49ers' Air Yards, as he is realistically their only deep option. Brian Hoyer no longer seems to have the ability to get the ball there effectively but with this sort of usage, Goodwin is a potential week winner in deeper leagues and in large-field daily fantasy tournaments, and he is currently fairly undervalued.
The time has not yet come for Moncrief, as his quarterback situation is something that walked out of a Southside alleyway, but if and when Luck returns his role in this Colts offense seems rather promising. 'Crief has only three receptions on the year but has 202 Air Yards on 12 targets after totaling only 576 Air Yards in the whole of 2016. If he is used more extensively down the field, especially when Luck returns, his fantasy ceiling should vault up exponentially.
Sanu was something of an afterthought in 2016, not really ever presenting real fantasy value as Taylor Gabriel ate production out of the slot and Aldrick Robinson stole deep targets. However, through two games this year, Sanu has 15 targets and a 26 percent market share of the team's total targets. Sanu totaled only 81 receptions last season and is now on pace for 120. I would likely take the under on 120 total targets, but the Falcons passing offense is rather narrow and it is likely that Sanu is undervalued as only three players on the team have more than four total targets.
I had finally started to buy into Sammy Watkins as undervalued when he started slipping into the sixth and seventh rounds of seasonal drafts, but through two games he has only seven targets for 39 Air Yards. He is basically Dexter McCluster when being used like this. His good games in Buffalo came because he would get the occasional deep ball to keep the defense on their toes and it allowed his game-breaking speed to be a factor, but with an average depth of target of 5.6 yards, the Rams offense is basically keeping the governor on Watkins which will continue to kill his fantasy value.
The Lions passing game is very interesting to me at the moment because it is sustaining 4.5 players (Tate, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, Theo Riddick and the .5 is Kenny Golladay). Tate leads the team in targets by far with 16 and has caught 14 of them with an aDOT of 4.1, which is transitioning him firmly into a slot wide receiver, "get him in space" sort of player which is really valuable in PPR and in daily fantasy. His low Air Yards (65) are not concerning to me because his role seems very fixed and stable in this offense and is likely to make him a productive player all year long.
Something that I did not expect to see when looking at the Cowboys' Air Yards data from this year was that Cole Beasley has almost doubled up Williams in Air Yards. This tells me two things: the first is that Beasley is being used in a little bit of an expanded role and that secondly, it is possible that Williams will actually be usable in fantasy. In years past, Williams would rarely max beyond five targets a game and was always used as a vertical threat to clear space. If he is used closer to the line of scrimmage, even occasionally, that would suggest to me that he could have more consistent value game to game.
