This article is part of our On Target series.
We have arrived at the part of the season where workloads and target shares tend to get really sticky (which is just math talk for stable or predictive). As usual, we will go through a list of 10 players who have an interesting quirk or two with their target volume, but as you go through the target data this week, I want you to really think about these players being who they are, i.e if you are waiting on a breakout get off the ship, or if there is still a buy low opportunity on a player with a lot of volume, send some offers.
Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews did his best to follow up my proclamation last week by scoring his first touchdown of the year; unfortunately, he immediately got hurt afterwards and is out for at least a month now. Also unfortunate is that every other wide receiver in Buffalo is terrible. Zay Jones has been super inefficient and he was not a highly touted prospect anyway, so that is not super surprising. Andre Holmes is the player best cast in Matthews' outside wide receiver role, and if he gets even 5-7 targets per contest (the role Matthews was heading for) he will be playable in deeper leagues.
Michael Crabtree / Amari Cooper
This advice is going to sound a little backwards, but because Crabtree and specifically Cooper have been so terrible, I think there is a really interesting buying opportunity here. In certain leagues, I
We have arrived at the part of the season where workloads and target shares tend to get really sticky (which is just math talk for stable or predictive). As usual, we will go through a list of 10 players who have an interesting quirk or two with their target volume, but as you go through the target data this week, I want you to really think about these players being who they are, i.e if you are waiting on a breakout get off the ship, or if there is still a buy low opportunity on a player with a lot of volume, send some offers.
Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews did his best to follow up my proclamation last week by scoring his first touchdown of the year; unfortunately, he immediately got hurt afterwards and is out for at least a month now. Also unfortunate is that every other wide receiver in Buffalo is terrible. Zay Jones has been super inefficient and he was not a highly touted prospect anyway, so that is not super surprising. Andre Holmes is the player best cast in Matthews' outside wide receiver role, and if he gets even 5-7 targets per contest (the role Matthews was heading for) he will be playable in deeper leagues.
Michael Crabtree / Amari Cooper
This advice is going to sound a little backwards, but because Crabtree and specifically Cooper have been so terrible, I think there is a really interesting buying opportunity here. In certain leagues, I think people would give up 60 cents on the dollar for Cooper. He has been bad, sure, but he has also has a 25 percent target share of the offense and has Crabtree doubled up in Air Yards. Personally, I am not a long term believer in Cooper as a WR1, but I have a feeling he can be had incredibly cheaply in many leagues.
Yes, we are going to spend a little time talking about a player who has only six targets on the season, but almost more air yards than the player who plays in front of him (Jamison Crowder). Monday night, with the game on the line, Kirk Cousins' potentially game winning touchdown pass went to Doctson, who also came in on a majority of third downs. He is likely available on many waiver wires and if anyone in your dynasty leagues is starting to hang their heads about his long-term value, this is a small buying window. Long term, Crowder and Ryan Grant are not solutions, they are stop-gaps. A tandem of Terrelle Pryor and Doctson is actually fairly formidable for opposing defensive backs, and that should be the route that Washington is trying to take.
If the resurgence of Cam Newton from last week against the Patriots is even slightly real, Funchess is a very interesting player. He has played much more like the lead cog in the offense this year. He and Christian McCaffrey are No. 1 and No. 2 on the team in targets with only one toss separating them, but Funchess leads the team in Air Yards. He and Kelvin Benjamin actually have the same average depth of target, which suggests to me that in addition to being used in a similar way, Funchess is just playing better. I was not a believer of Funchess coming into the year, but this volume appears to be very real.
Chicago Wide Receivers
I wanted to title this section in bold "Kendall Wright"… or maybe "Tanner Gentry"… or maybe "Deonte Thompson"… and then I realized that I am absolutely unsure which, if any, of them will excel with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm. Mike Glennon was playing legitimately terrible football, with over 40 percent of his total targets going to running backs or tight ends, but Trubisky is not likely to play the same scared brand of football as Glennon. I'm really excited for the former North Carolina product as he looked very solid in the preseason and did not display the same sort of happy feet as DeShone Kizer. I don't think any Bears wide receiver is a 12-team league add just yet, but it is very possible that they are come Tuesday morning.
Despite sub-optimal quarterback play, Hilton has still been able to accrue 299 Air Yards and one massive game against the Browns. Obviously against the Seahawks and Cardinals (Richard Sherman / Patrick Peterson), his results were not sterling, but he is still clearly being cast as the Colts No. 1 wide receiver and will be playing against the semi-hapless 49ers this week. If he again has a solid fantasy game here, I think even with Jacoby Brissett we will be in a situation where Hilton is shut down by good defenses but very startable in plus matchups. It sucks for someone you picked as high as Hilton to be matchup dependent, but here we are.
Monday night against Washington, it was not Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill or even Kareem Hunt who came to save the day , it was Wilson. He had several key third-down conversions through the course of the game and even saved a tipped pass from being intercepted by hurdling over a defender to scoop the ball before it hit the turf. His 37-yarder to set up the game-winning field goal will be what most remember, but the fact that he played more than Hill and most of his targets came in the flow of the offense was very impressive. Kansas City is the best team in the league and getting pieces of their offense in deeper leagues or large field GPPs is a recommended strategy.
I basically never expected to be writing these words, but the former USC product is actually a semi-productive member of a good offense with the Rams. He leads all wide receivers in targets and trails only Todd Gurley in target share. Jared Goff seems to actually be one of the few quarterbacks who is competent on a week-to-week basis; in fact, he is actually third in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt, trailing only Tom Brady and Alex Smith. Woods is likely available on most waiver wires or could be had for an absolute song. He is also largely ignored in DFS, and won't be played at all this week against Seattle.
With the lack of a real WR2 or WR3 in New Orleans, Coleman, Ted Ginn and Tommylee Lewis are playing musical chairs with Drew Brees' targets, but if I had to pick one with the ability to carve out a real role it would be Coleman. Ginn is who he is; he stretches the field and plays the old Devery Henderson role. With the lack of a real red zone threat after Michael Thomas and no consistent slot wide receiver, the 6-foot-4 Coleman could actually be a hybrid of the Jimmy Graham / Lance Moore roles. It is yet to be seen if he is capable, but Coleman is the cheapest way to speculate on Brees and the Saints for the rest of the season.
