This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The 2023 NFL regular season was filled with an unprecedented number of upsets, blowouts, and game-winning drives, and now the field is set with 14 teams earning a spot in the playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers had the best records in the AFC and NFC conferences respectively and earned a week off while the other 12 teams face off in the Wild Card Round.
Since 2002, the home team in the Wild Card Round has posted a winning record of 49-41 straight-up (SU), but just a 39-48-3 against the spread (ATS) for 45% winning bets including a 51-37-2 Under record good for 58% winning bets. The dominant trend in the Wild Card Round is the sportsbooks anticipate the public love affair with favorites and the Over and inflate the prices of both so that they can get equal betting flows on both sides.
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How Do Home Teams Do in the Wild Card Round?
Since the League went to a 14-team playoff format that began in the 2020 season, the Wild Card rounds have seen the home team go 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS, and 11-7 Over. However, in the last two seasons, home teams have gone 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS, and 7-5 Over. Home favorites of eight or more points have earned a 14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS, and 9-6 Under mark since 2002. This basic angle targets a betting opportunity on the Buffalo Bills when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in a game that will be played in severe weather conditions.
Home favorites between pick-em and -7.5 points have gone 29-26 SU, 19-36 ATS for 35%, and 30-23-2 Under for 57% winning bets since 2002. So, you can see, the pivot point for the Wild Card Round is 8 points.
Teams that won more games during the regular season than their opponent have gone 42-35 SU, 33-41-3 ATS for 45%, and 45-30-2 Under for 60% winning bets since 2002. This basic angle targets potential betting opportunities on the Under in five of the six Wild Card games. Filtering just home teams that won more games reduces the number of games to three and has produced a 28-21 SU record, 21-27-1 ATS for 44%, and 29-19-1 Under for 60% winning bets.
So, potential bets based on this angle are Under 36.5 points in the Steelers vs. Bills game, Under 50.5 points in the Packers vs Cowboys game, and Under 51.5 points in the Rams vs. Lions game.
Home teams that covered the spread in 60% or more of their regular season games have produced an 11-12 SU record, 8-14-1 ATS mark for 36% winning bets, and 14-8-1 Under record for 64% winning bets since 2002. This simple angle targets a betting opportunity to fade the Lions, who are three-point home favorites against the Rams and to fade the Buccaneers, who are 3-point home underdogs when they host the Eagles.
Does the Ground Attack Matter in the Wild Card Round?
Even as the League evolved into a higher scoring featuring higher pass percentages the ground game does matter in the Would Card Round. The more meaningful statistic is the rush percentage of all plays run instead of simply using rushing yards per game or rushing yards per attempt. A team that averages 5-or-more yards per rush, but only runs the ball 35% of all plays run during the regular season is not a formidable ground attack. However, a team that runs the ball more than 40% of all plays executed is a force that all defenses must respect.
Teams that have had the higher run play percentage have gone 48-42SU, 51-36-3 ATS for 59% winning bets including a 51-37-2 Under record for 58% winning bets since 2002. This advanced angle favors betting opportunities on the Dolphins, who are 4.5-point road underdogs when they take on the Chiefs, the Browns, who are 2-point road favorites when they take on the Texans, the Steelers, who are 10-point road underdogs when they take on the Bills, the Cowboys, who are 7-point home favorites when they take on the Packers, the Lions, who are 3-point home favorites when they take on the Rams, and the Eagles, who are 3-point road favorites when they take on the Buccaneers.
Filtering the results to include just road teams has produced a 25-26 SU record, a 31-19-1 ATS mark for 62% winning bets, and 30-20-1 Under for 60% winning bets. These results put us on the Dolphins, Browns, Steelers, and Eagles. Next, if we filter the results to include only road favorites has produced a 7-2 SU record, 6-2-1 ATS mark for 75%, and 6-3 under for 67% winning bets.
Will the Weather Conditions Be a Major Factor?
During the regular season, the weather conditions are not a major consideration in my handicapping processes, but in the playoffs, it has become an extremely important component. This weekend will feature poor weather conditions in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium where the game time temperatures are forecast to be below zero degrees and with dangerous wind chills below -20 degrees. This game could record the all-time coldest played game in NFL history.
Another venue will be in Orchard Park, NY at High Mark Stadium where the Bills and Steelers will play during a Winter Storm Watch that begins at 1 PM EST Saturday and ends at 7 AM EST Monday. The forecast calls for snow accumulations of more than one foot including 65 MPH wind gusts through Saturday evening and somewhat lower wind speeds Sunday.
Road teams that have played in games with winds of 10 or more MPH have gone 16-10 SU, 16-9-1 ATS for 64% winning bets, and 16-8-2 Under for 67^ winning bets in the Wild Card Round since 2002. If the road teams are priced as the dog, they have gone 10-10 SU, 13-7 ATS for 65%, and 12-6-2 Under for 67% winning bets. So, be sure to check the weather forecast for each game about an hour before kickoff.
Best Bet for NFL Wild Card Round
I have developed more than 5000 betting algorithms over the past two decades and the following one has produced highly profitable and consistent profits over many seasons in the playoff rounds. The requirements are to bet on:
· Bet on playoff teams that are averaging 7.2 or more yards per pass attempt during the regular season.
· That team is facing a foe that averaged between 6.25 and 6.75 yards per pass attempt during the regular season.
That pair of parameters and their conditions have produced a 30-19 SU record, a 30-19 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets, and a 28-21 Under record for 57% winning bets in the playoffs. If in the Wild Card Rounds, these teams have produced a 9-4 SU record, 8-5 ATS for 62% winning bets, and 10-3 Under for 77% winning bets. If we filter just road teams that meet these conditions has produced a 6-1 SU and ATS mark and a 6-1 Under record good for 86% winning bets.
The results of this NFL playoff betting algorithm put us on the Miami Dolphins as 4.5-point road underdogs when they face the Kansas City Chiefs and also on the Under 43.5 points.
