NFL Waiver Wire: Week 4 Deep Dive

We keep on rolling through the NFL season and tonight will kickoff Week 4. As always, players mentioned in the tradition waiver column are not duplicated here. Also, thanks to a reader for their valuable input in pointing out my suggestions last week didn't reach some of the deeper leagues out there, so I've tried to specify where players may be available to make the article more reader-friendly.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan vs. WSH (32 percent ESPN)

Perhaps the only veteran quarterback to look worse than Ryan through three games is Ben Roethlisberger. If Ryan can't get things going in Week 4, it'll be time to forget him for fantasy purposes. But it's worth noting Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs so far.

Sam Darnold @ DAL (15 percent ESPN)

Darnold continues to work extremely efficiently (8.3 YPA) and has gotten it done for fantasy purposes with three rushing touchdowns in three games. He's due for regression (positive) through the air, as he's only logged a TD rate of 2.8 percent. The Cowboys have shown strong results defensively, which is one word of caution against Darnold.

Kirk Cousins vs. CLE (44 percent ESPN)

Cousins saw a spike in roster rate this week and rightfully so. The Browns aren't an ideal matchup, but Cousins has delivered to the degree that he can't be ignored.

Taylor Heinicke @ATL (six percent ESPN, 43 percent NFFC, 15 percent FFPC)

Heinicke has displayed the good, bad and ugly through two weeks as Washington's starter. He's not likely to be a long-term fantasy solution, but may be the best streamer of the week considering Atlanta has surrendered 29.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Justin Fields vs. DET (45 percent ESPN)

Fields' Week 3 performance was a disaster. That's excusable for his first start, though it was a reality check for fantasy managers who were banking on him becoming an every-week fantasy starter early on this season.

Running Back

Latavius Murray @ DEN (41 percent ESPN)

Murray is beginning to clearly establish himself as the primary back in Baltimore. That didn't translate to much production against Detroit, but his involvement near the goal line and in short-yardage suggests the team trusts him in valuable areas. 

Kenneth Gainwell  vs. KC (26 percent ESPN)

It's difficult to advocate rostering a running back whose team ran three running plays in an entire game. However, Gainwell has earned at least three targets in every contest this year. He could eventually work into standalone value, but already has seemingly established himself as one of the league's best handcuff options. 

Giovani Bernard @ NE (13 percent ESPN)

Bernard admittedly feels like an obligatory addition to this column. He exploded against the Rams, but also got injured in that contest and was unable to practice Wednesday. Game script also worked perfectly in Bernard's favor as the Bucs were playing catchup throughout. While the team's matchup against New England could be competitive, it's difficult to envision the Patriots jumping out to a big lead.

Ty Johnson vs. TEN (six percent ESPN, 53 percent NFFC, 66 percent FFPC)

Johnson appears to have become the Jets' pass-catching back as he's run routes on at least 35 percent of the team's pass plays in every game this season. If Tevin Coleman is out again or the team decides to minimize his role, Johnson could be a decent starting option for fantasy teams facing difficult injury scenarios.  

Larry Rountree vs. LV (three percent ESPN, 82 percent NFFC, 50 percent FFPC)

Rountree is slowly taking over the backup running back role from Justin Jackson in LA with both a higher rushing and route run share through three contests. Similar to the reason for early-season intrigue for Tony Jones, Austin Ekeler isn't going to be a traditional workhorse back. That means Rountree's role could continue to pick up as the season progresses, but isn't a starting option this week.

Chris Evans vs. JAX (one percent ESPN, eight percent NFFC, 21 percent FFPC)

Joe Mixon represents the clear lead back in Cincinnati, but we should begin to question who the backup is. Evans went from not seeing the field in Week 1 to a four percent snap share in Week 2 to an 11 percent snap share in Week 3. There's not enough here to start him, but he could eventually turn into the back to roster behind Mixon.  

J.J. Taylor/Brandon Bolden vs. TB (one percent ESPN, nine percent NFFC, 9 percent FFPC/zero percent ESPN, zero percent NFFC zero percent FFPC)

Given the way Bill Belichick runs his offense, the chances of either of these backs hitting big is minimal. However, the James White role will need to be filled. And if either player claims the job outright, they'll offer fantasy value in most league formats.

Jake Funk vs. ARI (one percent ESPN, 13 percent NFFC, 19 percent FFPC)

If we're assuming Darrell Henderson is sidelined again, Funk could get work as the passing-down back. Sony Michel worked as the lead back in Henderson's absence, which significantly caps Funk's potential.

Wide Receiver

Darnell Mooney vs. DET (46 percent ESPN)

Fantasy managers are starting to get frustrated with Mooney, who's only managed 12 receptions for 101 yards. A number of factors are working against him, as he's battled back and groin injuries early on. Then there's the ambiguous quarterback situation. Justin Fields would presumably be the best for Mooney in the long-term, but didn't look ready in his NFL debut. Digging a bit deeper, there's reason to hold onto hope Mooney will deliver on his preseason hype, as he leads the team in percentage of routes run on pass plays and air yards. He's also delivered a target share no lower than 18 percent in any contest this season. Mooney isn't likely available in the majority of leagues, but keep an eye out for frustrated or desperate fantasy managers who drop him.  

Sammy Watkins @ DEN (32 percent ESPN)

Watkins has held an incredibly consistent role in the Ravens' offense so far this season, so he could be an option for solid – yet unspectacular – production. Two concerns come to mind, however. First, the Broncos have allowed only 53 total PPR fantasy points to the wide receivers this season. And secondly, Rashod Bateman has been cleared to return to practice and could cut into Watkins' long-term role.

A.J. Green @ LAR (27 percent ESPN)

It's been a common narrative early this season that Green is washed up. That may be true and if it is, no one has told Kliff Kingsbury. After DeAndre Hopkins played hobbled in Week 3, Green leads the team in target share for the season. With Hopkins not practicing Wednesday, he may be limited again in a matchup against the Rams that could open up opportunities for Green.

Christian Kirk @LAR (31 percent ESPN)

Let's stick in Arizona. Kirk has operated as a deep threat (15.9 aDOT), but has also produced a consistent target share (18 percent on the season). Like most on this list to this point, he's a shallow-league target.

Terrace Marshall at Dallas (15 percent ESPN)

Marshall has delivered very little production through three games. However, both Dan Arnold and Christian McCaffrey are out of the picture in Week 4 and that should push more volume to Carolina's wideouts. 

Elijah Moore vs. TEN (27 percent ESPN)

The Jets' offense has been so poor a blanket policy of not starting any of their players is likely the way to go for the time being. The case for Moore is similar to that of Mooney, with the hope the offense improves at some point and the team becomes willing to minimize the role of players like Braxton Berrios.

Hunter Renfrow @ LAC (27 percent ESPN)

Few would have predicted the Raiders would be the team to look to while hunting for fantasy points, but they currently rank first in offensive plays per game. Renfrow offers some stability in the face of Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs, as he's collected at least five receptions and 55 yards in every game this year. There's little to no upside here, but injuries are starting to strike and Renfrow makes for a nice 10-point plug-in in PPR leagues.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. PIT (four percent ESPN)

MVS is the antithesis of Renfrow, as he's posted an aDOT of 21.6 through three weeks. However, he's clearly remained Aaron Rodgers' second-favorite target behind Davante Adams and that alone makes him a player to consider.

Tim Patrick vs. BAL (25 percent ESPN, 52 percent FFPC)

The Broncos' receiving corps has gotten beaten up early this season with Jerry Jeudy sidelined at least a couple more weeks and KJ Hamler gone for the year. Suddenly, the target distribution has narrowed to primarily Courtland Sutton, Patrick and Noah Fant.

K.J. Osborn vs. CLE (24 percent ESPN)

Osborn isn't a priority in the Vikings' attack, as that title belongs to Dalvin Cook (when healthy), Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Even Tyler Conklin showed the ability to match Osborn's usage in Week 3. For that reason, Osborn isn't all that appealing without an injury to a Minnesota pass-catcher, but he's delivered in two of three games.

Rashod Bateman @ DEN (eight percent ESPN)

Bateman has been stashed in high-stakes leagues and becomes a premier keeper in shallower leagues given the news he's closing in on a return from injured reserve. Don't expect immediate production, so be patient.

James Washington @ GB (one percent ESPN, two percent NFFC, 10 percent FFPC)

The Steelers realistically could be without Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster this weekend, in which case Chase Claypool and Washington should have a clear path to targets. The biggest issue with Washington is the Steelers' quarterback situation, as Ben Roethlisberger has looked so horrific many are actually clamoring for Mason Rudolph to start. 

Anthony Miller @ BUF (one percent ESPN, two percent NFFC, nine percent FFPC)

Miller's start to his tenure with the Texans got off to a rocky start. There's some lack of clarity as to whether he was truly a healthy scratch for the first two weeks or whether an offseason shoulder injury was lingering. Either way, Miller operated in a key role during his first game action by earning a 25 percent target share. Danny Amendola is considered doubtful for Week 4, so volume could once again be on Miller's side.

Kalif Raymond @ CHI (one percent ESPN, three percent NFFC, zero percent FFPC)

There's plenty of danger in chasing last week's stats, particularly with a Lions offense lacking a clear top wideout. Quintez Cephus appeared to be Jared Goff's favorite target, though that title belonged to Raymond in Week 3. On the off chance that sticks, he represents a decent stash on the end of benches. If Raymond falls flat, he's an easy cut candidate in next week's waiver run.

Chester Rogers @ NYJ (zero percent ESPN, zero percent NFFC, zero percent FFPC)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has gotten some attention on the waiver wire and rightfully so after he led the Titans' receiver corps in Week 3. However, the team may be without both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones this weekend, meaning there could be plenty of targets to go around. Rogers logged a double-digit target share in each of the team's first two contests.

Tight End

Hunter Henry vs. TB (36 percent ESPN)

After splitting routes run nearly evenly with Jonnu Smith in Week 1, Henry has clearly taken over the role since. Smith's inability to hang onto the ball last Sunday likely helped Henry's cause. The reins are slowly coming off Mac Jones, so this could be the last time Henry is available on any waiver wire if the pair can connect.

Evan Engram @ NO (32 percent ESPN)

Engram made his season debut in Week 3 and ran a route on 65 percent of the Giants' drop backs. He was inefficient and also fumbled, but did see six targets and New York figures to be short-handed on pass catchers against New Orleans.

Cole Kmet vs. DET (19 percent ESPN)

Aside from Week 2, most of Kmet's metrics related to offensive involvement have been favorable. However, the team's quarterback situation and ability to move the ball remain major concerns.

Dalton Schultz vs. CAR (11 percent ESPN)

Like Bernard, bringing up Schultz feels obligatory based on his performance on Monday Night Football. But the numbers are less convincing, as his usage is very comparable to Blake Jarwin. That could be enough to make it very difficult to roster and confidently start either. 

Anthony Firkser @ NYJ (seven percent ESPN)

Firkser is in line to return from injury and should immediately step into the role as pass-catching tight end. If both Jones and Brown are out, there will be a lot of available targets.

Pat Freiermuth @ GB (five percent ESPN, 48 percent NFFC, 73 percent FFPC)

Freiermuth's usage fluctuated a bit in Week 3, but he's still managed a combined nine targets across his last two appearances. The Steelers' wide receiver corps could be depleted, and Freiermuth should live in the areas of the field where Roethlisberger can still get the ball to on time and relatively accurately.

Dan Arnold @ CIN (one percent ESPN, 44 percent NFFC, 59 percent FFPC)

We don't know how Arnold will be utilized by his new team. Presumably, the Jags had a reason for acquiring him in exchange for its former-first round pick, but that doesn't necessarily mean there will be fantasy value to follow.

Ian Thomas @ DAL (zero percent ESPN, zero percent NFFC, two percent FFPC)

The presumption is that Tommy Tremble will get the passing-down work in the absence of Arnold, but that assumption could be wrong. This is just a situation to monitor.

Albert Okwuegbunam vs. BAL (zero percent ESPN, seven percent NFFC, 18 percent FFPC)

As already discussed, Denver's target distribution should be narrowing. Okwuegbunam is on the outside looking in for now, but does enough to cut into Noah Fant's usage to be worth paying some attention to.