This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
What's gotten into Mark Stopa? The guy was a simpleton for years and suddenly he's 49-26 ATS? That's better than 65 percent picking every single game. He obviously won't sustain that pace, but we're five weeks in, so a 58-percent monster season is possible. DDD is in second, a whopping eight games out, and Pianow is one game behind him. Our only consensus pick is the Bills, but four of us like the Jets and two (Stopa and DDD) made them their best bets.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers -5.5 at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | Steelers | Titans |
| Raiders +9.5 at Falcons | Raiders | Falcons | Raiders | Falcons | Raiders |
| Chiefs +3 at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Chiefs | Buccaneers |
| Colts +3 at Jets | Jets | Colts | Jets | Jets | Jets |
| Bengals -1 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Bengals | Browns |
| Lions +4.5 at Eagles | Eagles | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Rams +3.5 at Dolphins | Rams | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Cowboys +3.5 at Ravens | Ravens | Cowboys | Ravens | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Bills +4.5 at Cardinals | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Patriots -3.5 at Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Patriots |
| Giants +5 at 49ers | Giants | Giants | Giants | 49ers | Giants |
| Vikings +1.5 at Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Vikings | Vikings |
| Packers +3.5 at Texans | Texans | Packers | Texans | Packers | Packers |
| Broncos +1 at Chargers | Chargers | Broncos | Broncos | Chargers | Broncos |
| Best Bet | Eagles | Browns | Bills | Jets | Jets |
| Last Week's Record | 5-9 | 4-10 | 4-10 | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| 2012 Record | 33-42-2 | 40-35-2 | 35-40-2 | 49-26-2 | 41-34-2 |
| Best Bet Record | 1-3-1 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Consensus Pick Record | 9-8-1 |
What's gotten into Mark Stopa? The guy was a simpleton for years and suddenly he's 49-26 ATS? That's better than 65 percent picking every single game. He obviously won't sustain that pace, but we're five weeks in, so a 58-percent monster season is possible. DDD is in second, a whopping eight games out, and Pianow is one game behind him. Our only consensus pick is the Bills, but four of us like the Jets and two (Stopa and DDD) made them their best bets.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers -5.5 at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | Steelers | Titans |
| Raiders +9.5 at Falcons | Raiders | Falcons | Raiders | Falcons | Raiders |
| Chiefs +3 at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Chiefs | Buccaneers |
| Colts +3 at Jets | Jets | Colts | Jets | Jets | Jets |
| Bengals -1 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Bengals | Browns |
| Lions +4.5 at Eagles | Eagles | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Rams +3.5 at Dolphins | Rams | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Cowboys +3.5 at Ravens | Ravens | Cowboys | Ravens | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Bills +4.5 at Cardinals | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Patriots -3.5 at Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Patriots |
| Giants +5 at 49ers | Giants | Giants | Giants | 49ers | Giants |
| Vikings +1.5 at Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Vikings | Vikings |
| Packers +3.5 at Texans | Texans | Packers | Texans | Packers | Packers |
| Broncos +1 at Chargers | Chargers | Broncos | Broncos | Chargers | Broncos |
| Best Bet | Eagles | Browns | Bills | Jets | Jets |
| Last Week's Record | 5-9 | 4-10 | 4-10 | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| 2012 Record | 33-42-2 | 40-35-2 | 35-40-2 | 49-26-2 | 41-34-2 |
| Best Bet Record | 1-3-1 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Consensus Pick Record | 9-8-1 | ||||
| 2011 Record | 121-128-7 | 134-115-7 | 124-125-7 | 123-126-7 | 127-122-7 |
| 2010 Record | 129-122-5 | 134-117-5 | 126-125-5 | 136-115-5 | 134-117-5 |
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Consensus Picks
This week we have one consensus pick: the Bills. Last week we went 1-2 to put us at 9-8-1 on the season. Last year we were 30-24-2 on consensus picks.
Comments:
| Writer | Comment |
| Erickson | Consider my best bet a vote of no-confidence in the Lions, bye week and all. |
| Pianowski | Will a Wednesday/Thursday game ever go over? They're 5-for-5 on unders thus far. |
| Liss | Like the Bills, Jets, Raiders, Dolphins and Broncos |
| Stopa | Who are the Chiefs? My best guess is that the defense turned a corner - what Liss called an "inflection point" in ECO. I think they're roughly on par with TB, Quinn might be an upgrade at QB, and the three points might matter in a low-scoring game... Indy beating GB last week impacts two choices this week. I expect an emotional letdown from Indy, which I still see as one of the lesser teams in the NFL, while GB should be focused and ready with a half-point hook against HOU on a short week. The Jets will win that game on the line of scrimmage, perhaps handily... I think the Falcons should be double-digit favorites, and a couple of power rankings agree. Oakland pass defense is awful, and I expect that game to get out of hand... I'll probably be alone on SF, but I see them as significantly more physical than NYG right now. ... I like a Buffalo bounce-back, kind of like how excrement gets hard when it sits around long enough. |
| Del Don | The 49ers line seems awfully high to me, but I'll go with the Jets as my best bet purely as a buy low, sell high play. |
The players:
•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 and 2011 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.
•Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, Roots for the 49ers.
