This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 18
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
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This is the most difficult week to handicap in the NFL as you have teams fighting for playoff spots, teams with playoff spots/seeds locked up and will rest players, and teams that have nothing left to play for. Lines are often adjusted even more in favor of the "must-win" teams, which is something to take into consideration. Injuries are also a key factor especially when there are clusters.
NFL Week 18 Odds
Week 18 Schedule
Saturday, Jan. 6
Pittsburgh Steelers -4.0 at Baltimore Ravens O/U 37.5 OPENED RAVENS -3.5, 39.0
*Ravens have the No. 1 seed locked up and nothing to play for. Steelers need a win plus a Jaguars loss, or Bills loss, or Jaguars loss plus Broncos win. A Ravens loss would do a lot of damage to the Bills playoff chances.
1/3 - STEELERS NOW -3.5 AS WORD OF RAVENS STILL LOOKING TO PLAY COMPETITIVE DESPITE BENCHING MOST OF THE STARTERS. THE TOTAL HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO 36.0.
1/4 - Ravens announced Tyler Huntley is starting at quarterback. Total has now dropped to 35.0.
1/5 - Weather reports showing 99 percent rain starting in the AM and throughout the game along with 15-20 mph winds, 2nd half gusts up to 40 mph. Total down to 34.5 and I can see it dropping even more. Steelers now an even -3.0.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts -1.0 O/U 47.5 OPENED COLTS -1.5, 46.0
*Texans clinch playoff berth with a win. Texans win AFC South with a win plus Jaguars loss. Colts clinch playoff berth with a win; Colts win AFC South with win plus Jaguars loss.
1/3 - MONEY HAS COME POURING IN ON THE TEXANS PUSHING THEM TO -1.0 to -1.5.
Sunday, Jan. 7, 1p.m. EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 at Carolina Panthers O/U 37.5 OPENED PANTHERS -2.5, 37.0
*Bucs clinch NFC South with a win.
1/3 - AMAZINGLY MONEY COMING IN ON THE PANTHERS; BUCS DOWN TO -4.5. A lot of injury concerns for QB Baker Mayfield.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -5.0 O/U 38.5 OPENED BENGALS -4.0, 46.0
*Browns have clinched playoff berth; Bengals have nothing to play for.
1/3 - Browns ANNOUNCED Jeff Driskel AS STARTING QB. BENGALS ARE NOW -7.0. Total has dropped to 37.
1/5 - Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins did not practice on Thursday
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions -5.5 O/U 46.0 OPENED LIONS -2.5, 50.5
*Vikings need to win plus Packers, Seahawks and Bucs losses, OR win plus Packers/Seahawks/Saints losses. Lions have clinched division.
1/3 - HEAVY MONEY COMING IN ON THE VIKINGS AS THE LIONS ARE DOWN TO -3.5.
New York Jets at New England Patriots -2.5 O/U 30.5 OPENED JETS -1.0, 37.0
*Neither team has anything to play for.
1/3 - PATS DOWN TO -1.5. WEATHER SITUATION LOOKS VERY BAD WITH HEAVY WIND AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -3.5 O/U 41.5 OPENED SAINTS -2.5, 43.5
*Falcons win NFC South with a win and Bucs loss. Saints win NFC South with a win and Bucs loss. Saints clinch playoff berth with win plus Packers and Seahawks losses.
1/3 - MONEY COMING IN ON THE FALCONS; SAINTS DOWN TO -3.0
Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 at Tennessee Titans O/U 39.5 OPENED JAGUARS -2.5, 41.0
*Jaguars clinch AFC South with a win; Jaguars clinch playoff berth with Steelers and Broncos losses.
1/3 - TITANS AS HOME DOGS THAT LOOK TO BE MOTIVATED IN WHAT COULD BE VRABEL LAST GAME AND THEY COULD PLAY THE SPOILER ROLE AS HOME DOGS. THIS LINE COULD BE MOVING DOWN QUICKLY. Growing concern about the health of Trevor Lawrence.
1/4 - Jaguars down to -4.5 and we could be headed to a -3.0 to -3.5.
1/5 - As expected Jags now down to -3.5 with the total up to 41-42.
Sunday, Jan. 7, 4:25 p.m. EST
Seattle Seahawks -3.0 at Arizona Cardinals O/U 48.0 OPENED SEAHAWKS -4.5, 47.0
*Seahawks clinch playoff berth with a win plus Packers loss
1/3 - SEATTLE NOW -2.5 IN SOME SPOTS AS THE CARDINALS AS LIVE HOME DOGS
1/5 - Seahawks back up to a full -3.0.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -3.0 O/U 44.0 OPENED PACKERS -2.0, 44.0
*Packers clinch playoff berth with a win; OR Vikings + Seahawks + Bucs/Saints loss.
1/3 - A LOT OF TALK ABOUT THE BEARS WANTING TO SPOIL THE PACKERS SEASON.
1/5 - Total up to 45 as the Packers look to be getting healthier at WR.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers -2.0 O/U 36.0 OPENED CHIEFS -2.0, 35.5
*Chiefs are locked into No. 3 seed and have nothing to play for.
1/3 - Blaine Gabbert IS STARTING AT QUARTERBACK FOR THE CHIEFS. CHARGERS NOW UP TO -3.5 OR -4.0. Total has dropped to 35.0.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 O/U 38.0 OPENED BRONCOS -1.0, 38.0
*Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Raiders could have motivation for interim head coach Antonio Pierce, whereas the Broncos could mail it in after their head coach threw players under the bus again. Starting to see some Raiders -3.
Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 at New York Giants O/U 41.5 OPENED EAGLES -2.5, 48.5
*The Eagles have put themselves in a very tough spot. They need to win and have the Cowboys lose to win the NFC East; they have clinched a playoff berth.
1/3 - EAGLES DOWN TO -4.5 IN SOME SPOTS AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO FALL AMIDST THE AJ BROWN NEWS AND LOCKER ROOM ISSUES. Rumors that Eagles are going to rest a lot of players starting to come out.
1/5 - Now looking like another East Coast game with heavy wings which is contributing to the total dropping. Also Tyrod Taylor popped up on the injury report which will impact the side and total if he is not able to go. You could see a situation where the Eagles rest starters if they see the Cowboys have a big lead against the Commanders.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers -3.5 O/U 42.5 OPENED 49ERS -6.0, 44.0
*The 49ers have everything locked up and nothing to play for. The Rams have also clinched, but would be playing for seeding.
1/3 - RAMS ANNOUNCED Carson Wentz STARTING FOR MATTHEW STAFFORD. RAMS ARE MOTIVATED TO GET THE 6 SEED AND FACE THE LIONS VS. THE 7 SEED AND FACE THE COWBOYS.
1/4 - Sam Darnold is starting at quarterback for the 49ers. Rams are now said to be resting most starters and do not care about the 6 vs. 7 seed opponents.
1/5 - Lots of chatter about the 49ers 1st half OVER team total being a very heavily bet side by sharp bettors.
Dallas Cowboys -13.0 at Washington Commanders O/U 44.0 OPENED COWBOYS -3.0, 49.0
*The Cowboys control their own destiny with a win for the NFC East or an Eagles loss.
1/3 - THE TOTAL HAS JUMPED FROM 44 UP TO 46.5
1/5 - Total now up to 47.5 as heavy money is coming in on the Cowboys team total, especially the 1st half OVER.
Sunday, Jan. 7, 8:20pm EST
Buffalo Bills -3.0 at Miami Dolphins O/U 49.5 OPENED DOLPHINS -1.5, 48.5
*The Bills can potentially win the AFC East or be completely eliminated from the playoffs. The Dolphins have clinched a playoff berth and have significant injuries.
1/3 - TONS OF INJURIES ON BOTH SIDES AND NO CLARITY AS OF YET.
1/5 - Bills down to -2.5 as it looks like Tua is a go.
Odds to make the playoffs (DraftKings)
AFC
Bills -900 (1/3 -700)
Jaguars -300
Colts -130 (1/3 -115, 1/4 -105)
Texans +100 (1/3 -120)
Steelers +130 (1/5 +125)
_________________
NFC
Buccaneers -250
Packers -190
Seahawks +230 (1/3 +300)
Saints +250
Falcons +700
Vikings +2500 (1/4 +2200)
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Week 18 Key Injury News
Dolphins - DE Bradley Chubb, DB Xavien Howard, WR Jaylen Waddle, QB Tua Tagovailoa
49ers - RB Christian McCaffrey
Cowboys - OL Tyler Smith
Eagles - WR DeVonta Smith
Rams - TE Tyler Higbee
Packers - WR Christian Watson, WR Jayden Reed, RB AJ Dillon
Saints - RB Alvin Kamara
Lions - WR Jameson Williams
Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Christian Kirk
Falcons - QB Taylor Heinicke
Buccaneers - QB Baker Mayfield
Steelers - QB Kenny Pickett
Seahawks - RB Kenneth Walker
Bengals - WR Tee Higgins
Ravens - DB Kyle Hamilton, DB Marlon Humphrey, OL Kevin Zeitler
Titans - QB Will Levis
Week 18 observations
Highest point spread – Cowboys/Commanders -13.5
Lowest point spread – Chiefs/Chargers, Texans/Colts -1.0
Highest total – Bills/Dolphins 50.0
Lowest total – Jets/Patriots 31.0
Three games with totals over 46.5 - Texans/Colts, Seahawks/Cardinals, Bills/Dolphins
Five games with totals of 38 or less – Chiefs/Chargers, Jets/Patriots, Steelers/Ravens, Bucs/Panthers, Broncos/Raiders
One game with lines at least -7.0 or higher – Cowboys/Commanders
NFL Week 18 Line Movement: Pittsburgh Steelers 
at Baltimore Ravens 
The Ravens have everything locked up and nothing to play for whereas the Steelers need a win plus a lot of help but it is within reach. This is a prime example of knowing what the line would be in this game if this were Week 17. It would have been Ravens favored by at least 7 and less than 10.
The game originally opened Ravens -3.5 (Week 18 odds get pulled once the season starts) and was Ravens -1.0 on Dec. 31. It moved to Steelers -3.5 then -4.0 once it was known the Ravens would be resting their key players. The total has moved down from 39.0 to 37.0.
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NFL Week 18 Line Movement: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
at Carolina Panthers 
The "must win" tax is in play on the Bucs, who opened as +2.5 road dogs, but reopened at -6.0 road favorites as the Panthers have nothing to play for and were shut out against the Jaguars Sunday. The line has actually moved slightly down to Bucs -5.5, so people felt like +6.0 was enough to make a play on the Panthers.
There will not be much of a home crowd in Carolina, especially after another fallout from their owners' actions at the Jaguars game.
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NFL Week 18 Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys 
at Washington Commanders 
One of the biggest line moves of the season has the Cowboys now -13.0 or -13.5 after opening -3.0 in May. This is another "must-win" game with at least 3 points of tax on the line. The Cowboys would probably have been -9 or -10 in a normal week, but the Commanders gave the 49ers a run before losing 27-10. The total has crashed going from the opening number of 49.0 to 44.0.
Call me crazy, but the Cowboys have struggled on the road and this is a historical rivalry. The Commanders have nothing to play for and their coach is probably fired on Black Monday, but laying this huge number on the road in a divisional game feels very risky.
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NFL Week 18 Line Movement: Buffalo Bills 
at Miami Dolphins 
One of the biggest games of the season is also the last game of the regular season on Sunday Night Football, with the winner taking the AFC East. In a "normal" week, the Dolphins are a -3.0 home favorite, but they are ravaged with injuries and have already clinched a playoff berth. The Bills need to win in order to guarantee a playoff berth. They can get in if they lose, but would need a lot of help.
The original line opened at Dolphins -1.5, but has moved to Bills -3.0. The total is the highest of the week at 49.5, but with all of the injuries for the Dolphins it would not surprise me if this game went under the total.
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