NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 17 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 17 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 17 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 13 games. Only the Thursday Night Football (Jets-Browns), Saturday game (Lions-Cowboys) and Sunday Night Football (Packers-Vikings) participants play outside the Week 17 main slate. Yahoo will run plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 17, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 17 options include a QB looking to bounce back from a clunker, a bargain bin RB likely to start due to injuries, and a pricey TE that should be worth paying up for in a favorable matchup.

QUARTERBACK

Brock Purdy, SF at WAS ($32): Purdy's coming off his worst game of the season, as he was picked off four times in Monday's loss to the Ravens before exiting with a stinger in his non-throwing shoulder, but don't let his struggles against a tough defense scare you away from using him in this far more comfortable matchup. He didn't have any limitations in Wednesday's practice, so health isn't a concern, and coach Kyle Shanahan has a golden opportunity to rebuild his young QB's confidence with the playoffs around the corner. Purdy still ranks second in both passing yards (4,050) and passing TDs (29) heading into a matchup with a Washington defense that's allowing the most points (30.2) and second-most passing yards (261.6) per game. The Commanders have been even worse lately, surrendering 34.7 PPG during their current six-game losing streak.

Honorable Mentions:

Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. ARI ($40); C.J. Stroud, HOU vs. TEN ($31); Matthew Stafford, LAR at NYG ($31)

Against the Grainers:

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. MIA ($35); Jake Browning, CIN at KC ($28); Jarrett Stidham, DEN vs. LAC ($20)

RUNNING BACK

Travis Etienne, JAC vs. CAR ($26): Jacksonville has been unable to get the running game going in recent weeks, but Etienne continues to see a near-monopoly on backfield touches, and that volume should lead to substantial production against a Panthers defense that has surrendered the most rushing TDs (19) and fifth-most rushing yards (1,617) to RBs. Whether it's Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) or backup C.J. Beathard under center for Jacksonville, the Jaguars are likely to race out to a lead and take a run-heavy approach considering Carolina's 0-8 on the road. Etienne has a solid floor as both a rusher and a pass catcher, with at least 14 carries in 10 of 15 games and at least three receptions in all but two games.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC vs. CIN ($10): You'll be hard-pressed to find better bang for the buck than Edwards-Helaire at the minimum valuation, as Isiah Pacheco (concussion) seems to be heading toward his third absence in the last four games, and Jerick McKinnon (groin) is on IR. Edwards-Helaire has shown some nice receiving ability with KC's other RBs banged up recently, producing 135 yards and a touchdown through the air over the last three games. The former 800-yard rusher has a nice opportunity to pick up the pace on the ground here against a Bengals defense that's allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Cincinnati has been especially vulnerable on the ground since losing starting defensive tackle DJ Reader (quadriceps), as Ty Chandler and Najee Harris combined for 210 rushing yards and two rushing TDs against the Bengals over the past two weeks.

Honorable Mentions:

Christian McCaffrey, SF at WAS ($42); Kyren Williams, LAR at NYG ($36); D'Andre Swift, PHI vs. ARI ($23)

Against the Grainers:

Joe Mixon, CIN at KC ($28); James Conner, ARI at PHI ($22); Gus Edwards, BAL vs. MIA ($17)

WIDE RECEIVER

Brandon Aiyuk, SF at WAS ($28): Washington hasn't defended any position particularly well, but wide receivers have been especially effective against the Commanders. Washington's 2,870 receiving yards and 23 TDs allowed to WRs are both second-most in the league, behind the Buccaneers and Eagles, respectively. Aiyuk's a sensible option to pair with Purdy or use as a standalone play, as the 49ers will likely utilize his downfield skill set more than the YAC ability of Deebo Samuel, who's nursing a neck injury. The former is the better value in San Francisco's receiving corps at a $7 savings, and Aiyuk is one of only eight players with over 1,200 receiving yards entering Week 17.

Chris Olave, NO at TB ($24): The Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 2,923 receiving yards to WRs, while Olave has at least 94 receiving yards in four of his last five games played. The 2022 first-round draft pick and QB Derek Carr have shown better chemistry in recent weeks, and the ankle injury that kept Olave from playing Week 15 no longer seems to be much of a factor considering he bounced back with nine catches for 123 yards in Week 16. Look for Olave to see plenty of volume in a must-win game for the Saints' playoff hopes.

Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. LAC ($16): Jeudy's a low-risk, high-reward play in a Denver offense that could look substantially different against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards (2,667) and third-most TDs (19) to WRs. Top WR Courtland Sutton (concussion) is unlikely to play after exiting the team's previous game, while QB Russell Wilson has been benched, opening the door for Jarrett Stidham to take over the starting role. Jeudy set career highs with 972 yards and six TDs last season, but he has failed to rekindle the chemistry with Wilson in 2023, catching only one TD compared to Sutton's 10. As the likely top target for Stidham against a leaky secondary, the speedy Jeudy should break free for some big plays.

Honorable Mentions:

A.J. Brown, PHI at ARI ($29); Cooper Kupp, LAR at NYG ($28); Adam Thielen, CAR at JAC ($18)

Against the Grainers: 

Mike Evans, TB vs. NO ($30); Tee Higgins, CIN at KC ($26); Calvin Ridley, JAC vs. CAR ($20)

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce, KC vs. CIN ($26): Kelce has been a disappointment relative to his lofty preseason expectations, but he's still among the top performers at TE, ranking second in receiving yards (968) and third in catches (90), plus his five TDs are just one back of a five-way tie for second. He needs just 32 yards to reach 1,000 for the eighth consecutive season, and Kelce's likely to easily clear that mark against a Bengals defense that's been ravaged by tight ends. Cincinnati is the only team to have allowed over 1,000 yards to the position (1,023), and the Bengals have given up 98 catches and six TDs to TEs. In other words, generic TEs facing the Bengals this year have been slightly more productive than Kelce himself, so the league's best player at the position should be worth paying up for here.

Honorable Mentions:

Trey McBride, ARI at PHI ($21); Isaiah Likely, BAL vs. MIA ($16); Gerald Everett, LAC at DEN ($12)

Against the Grainers: 

Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. ARI ($16); Darren Waller, NYG vs. LAR ($16); Kyle Pitts, ATL at CHI ($15)

DEFENSE

Chicago Bears vs. ATL ($13): If you don't want to pay up for the 49ers or Bills in their favorable matchups, the Bears should provide nice value at a valuation that's $5 lower. This unit has quietly posted at least 14.0 fantasy points in three of its last four games, producing 12 sacks and nine interceptions over that span. The Bears are limiting RBs to 3.6 YPC this season, so Atlanta's run-heavy defense will likely have a hard time getting going, and the Falcons have struggled to score on the road all season, averaging just 13.6 PPG en route to a 2-5 road record. 

Honorable Mentions:

San Francisco 49ers at WAS ($18); Buffalo Bills vs. NE ($18); Denver Broncos vs. LAC ($15)

Against the Grainers: 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. ARI ($15); Los Angeles Chargers at DEN ($13); New England Patriots at BUF ($12)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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