This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Betting Trends and Best Bets for Week 3
Through 2 weeks of NFL action, home teams have taken it on the chin going just 13-19 straight-up (SU) and 11-19-2 ATS for 37% winning bets including a neutral 17-15 Over-Under record. Home dogs are 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS record while seeing the Under go 6-7. Home favorites have been significant money-burners posting a 9-10 record, 5-13-1 ATS for 28% winning tickets, and 11-8 Over-Under.
In games that were priced at 45.5 or more points, the Over has produced a 14-8 for 64% winning bets. However, games with a posted total so 45.5 points exact have been a perfect 6-0, so this trend is essentially not meaningful, and would expect future games with totals of 45.5 points to see more Under than Over results.
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Expert Best Bet for Week 3 NFL Sunday
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM EST
Jaguars -9 | Total: 44-points as offered by betMGM
The following is a highly profitable betting algorithm that supports the contrarian bet on the Texans getting the nine points the market is currently offering. The requirements from this algorithm are to bet on road underdogs of between 3.5 to 9.5 points and are averaging 28 or more points per game on the season. This set of parameters has posted a 42-76 SU record (36%), but as highly profitable 77-39-3 ATS mark good for 66.4% winning bets since the start of the 2015 season.
Drilling further into the data and adding the situation that our dog had gotten 26% or more quarterback pressures of all plays run by the opponent's offensive in the previous game improves the record to 8-12 SU and 13-6-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2015.
Good Luck in Week 3 NFL action and "Bet With Your Heads and Not Over It and May All the Wins be Yours"
