This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Eagles were supposed to steamroll their way into the playoffs and maybe even the Super Bowl, challenged otherwise in the NFC by only the No. 1 seed 49ers, but an improbable and unforgettable second-half collapse somehow witnessed this juggernaut Animorphing into a helpless kitten, or at least a baby bird as it were. Injuries were partially to blame, and perhaps some bad luck was involved somewhere along the way, but the truth is the Eagles collapsed because of their own player, coach and management mistakes. Whether the Eagles descended far enough to be overtaken by the modest if not lowly Buccaneers is a different question, but one Monday's Wild-Card Round finale will answer conclusively for us. The Eagles are without WR1 A.J. Brown (knee), making the task more difficult yet for Jalen Hurts, who's playing through a middle finger injury on this throwing hand, but the Eagles are still favored by 2.5 points, even with the road game and all the injuries. The over/under is a modest 42.5.
QUARTERBACK
The fate of the slate is in the hands of Jalen Hurts ($11600 DK, $17000 FD), who would likely take care of Tampa with ease if displaying his early-season form. In the late-season form showed by Hurts and the Eagles, though, things were bad enough that they could seemingly lose to anyone – see the Giants – and the absence of encouraging details since the beginning of that late-season collapse makes it difficult to tell whether there's a
The Eagles were supposed to steamroll their way into the playoffs and maybe even the Super Bowl, challenged otherwise in the NFC by only the No. 1 seed 49ers, but an improbable and unforgettable second-half collapse somehow witnessed this juggernaut Animorphing into a helpless kitten, or at least a baby bird as it were. Injuries were partially to blame, and perhaps some bad luck was involved somewhere along the way, but the truth is the Eagles collapsed because of their own player, coach and management mistakes. Whether the Eagles descended far enough to be overtaken by the modest if not lowly Buccaneers is a different question, but one Monday's Wild-Card Round finale will answer conclusively for us. The Eagles are without WR1 A.J. Brown (knee), making the task more difficult yet for Jalen Hurts, who's playing through a middle finger injury on this throwing hand, but the Eagles are still favored by 2.5 points, even with the road game and all the injuries. The over/under is a modest 42.5.
QUARTERBACK
The fate of the slate is in the hands of Jalen Hurts ($11600 DK, $17000 FD), who would likely take care of Tampa with ease if displaying his early-season form. In the late-season form showed by Hurts and the Eagles, though, things were bad enough that they could seemingly lose to anyone – see the Giants – and the absence of encouraging details since the beginning of that late-season collapse makes it difficult to tell whether there's a light at the end of the tunnel. With that said, Hurts' fantasy production has been better than his real-life production at many points, so the Eagles losing wouldn't necessarily mean Hurts was a good fade in a showdown slate here. The Eagles can lose and Hurts could still be a major fantasy factor, if only because he's the only one who can carry the offense.
Baker Mayfield ($9800 DK, $14000 FD) is managing ankle and rib issues, which complicates his projection a bit against an otherwise vulnerable Philadelphia pass defense. Although it's been ugly at times, Mayfield has kept the Buccaneers competitive and has seemingly improved his chemistry with Chris Godwin over the year, after Mike Evans proved to be a natural fit out of the gates. If Evans and Godwin can both show up here then it would set up Mayfield for a big game. Although he was quiet the last time these teams played (146 yards, one touchdown and one interception), Mayfield should be a bit more lively in this one.
RUNNING BACK
Rachaad White ($10200 DK, $13500 FD) might struggle to generate ground yardage against the tough Eagles run defense, but he's a tough fade all the same because of his reliable workload and standout pass-catching production. While White is likely average or worse as a pure runner, as a pass catcher there's reason to think he has unique talent. Catches count for DFS points and carries don't, so White can gain ground in the fantasy scoring even when he's not running for much at all. Even if White finishes with something as little as 30 yards rushing, the possibility of six to eight receptions makes it easier to look past the concern. Chase Edmonds ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) gets all the scraps after White, though they tend to be meager.
D'Andre Swift ($7200 DK, $12500 FD) is still trying to shake the Fraud label and a timely strong showing in this game would go a long way toward accomplishing that. Swift had his second-biggest game of the entire season against Tampa Bay back in Week 3, and hasn't eclipsed 100 yards rushing since. Given the Eagles' offensive line personnel, that's pretty embarrassing. It sure seems like the Eagles hurt themselves and maybe even threw away their entire season in their refusal to use their best runner, Rashaad Penny, but the Eagles will be riding with Swift, Kenneth Gainwell ($4200 DK, $7500 FD) and to a lesser extent Boston Scott ($1800 DK, $6500 FD). Gainwell rarely produces despite extensive opportunity, while Scott rarely sees opportunity (but still more than Penny).
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
With A.J. Brown out DeVonta Smith ($8600 DK, $13000 FD) is an exceedingly difficult fade, even with the rain concerns. The Tampa corners can't cover him reliably in normal conditions, and the heightened target share projection arguably offsets whatever weather concern. Dallas Goedert ($6400 DK, $10000 FD) isn't an easy fade, either, and heads into this game heavily favored to be the second-leading target for Philadelphia. Goedert is capable of leading a receiving rotation, though, so it wouldn't be surprising if he led the Eagles in receiving stats. The good news is that he and Smith are fairly affordable as a tandem, making it easier than usual to stack the Hurts with his two leading receivers. Quez Watkins ($3000 DK, $7000 FD), Julio Jones ($3800 DK, $7500 FD) and Olamide Zaccheaus ($2000 DK, $7000 FD) are the next-up pass catchers, but it isn't clear how Philadelphia means to handle any of the three.
Mike Evans ($10600 DK, $15000 FD) has been somewhat quiet in the second half of the year, but that his cooling period coincided with a hot streak for Chris Godwin ($7800 DK, $11000 FD) gives reason to think Evans didn't start struggling as much as the Buccaneers adjusted to defenses selling out against Evans, clearing new room for Godwin to gallop through. The question is whether Baker Mayfield can pass effectively enough here for both star Buccaneers wideouts to get standout usage. It can and has happened, but it generally requires one of Mayfield's better showings to create volume up to the customary standards of Evans and Godwin. Cade Otton ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) has quietly played quality tight end all year, though his low depth of target makes it difficult for him to generate big plays. Rookie slot wideout Trey Palmer ($2800 DK, $8500 FD) has been a sinkhole all year but the Buccaneers keep playing him, for some reason.
KICKER
Rain might complicate things for either or both kickers, but there also exists the possibility of either offense sputtering on short fields, leading to field goal retreats if the teams can't close the deal in the red zone.
Jake Elliott ($5000 DK, $9500 FD) is a standout kicker to the point that he's arguably top-five league-wide, and if the Eagles move the ball consistently there could be some field goal opportunities for Elliott here. It's unlikely the Buccaneers pull away even if the Eagles continue to struggle on offense, so Elliott should have three-point opportunities into the late game. Elliott has six games in 2023 with double-digit fantasy points or more, including a 15.0-point effort against the Giants in Week 16.
Chase McLaughlin ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) might not be quite as good as Elliott, but it's also possible that McLaughlin turned a corner in 2023, going from 'decent' to quite strong in the process. Indeed, McLaughlin has made an exceptional 29 of 31 field goals this year, including 7 of 8 from 50 or more. McLaughlin has quietly displayed elite range each of the last two years, though he only has three double-digit fantasy outings to show for his otherwise elite work in 2023.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
With the potential for rain and both offenses capable of sloppiness even in perfect weather, this game might bring a considerable chance for turnovers or otherwise big plays from either defense.
No A.J. Brown or not, Jalen Hurts is a better quarterback than Baker Mayfield and that's the reason the Eagles ($3400 DK, $9000 FD) are favored despite their various issues as they head on the road. The Eagles pass defense has generally been poor this year, and receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can definitely give them trouble, but the Eagles still have a lively pass rush and Mayfield will always be turnover-prone.
With that said, the Eagles have been bad enough lately that one can't write off the Buccaneers ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) in this game, especially since Brown is out and Hurts' hand is a question mark. The Buccaneers defense, though generally disappointing in 2023, did have various injury excuses that they no longer need at this point. If improved health helps the Buccaneers defense hit its stride, then it could prolong the ongoing disaster the Eagles are experiencing as they head into this game.
