Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Seahawks vs. 49ers

The 7-2 Seahawks head to San Francisco Santa Clara for a tough divisional matchup against the undefeated 49ers, with the home team a 6.0-point favorite in a game a solid 47.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook. Seattle's offense has been carrying them, for the most part, scoring at least 27 points in all but two games, and while the Niners' defense has been a big focus this season, holding opponents to 13 points or less six times in eight games, they haven't struggled putting points on the board themselves, dropping 24 in all but two games.

QUARTERBACKS

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson ($11,400 DK, $16,000 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites, if for no other reason than he leads the NFL with 22 passing touchdowns and just one interception, while his 2,505 passing yards are third overall, with league-leader Tom Brady already playing 10 games versus Wilson's nine. Additionally, Wilson is sixth in rushing yards among quarterbacks and only three have rushed for more touchdowns. While they have a solid running game, Wilson is the key to the offense and the easiest play for those who want exposure to the Seahawks. However, the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on FanDuel (tied with the Patriots for fewest per game), while New England is the only team to give up fewer points to quarterbacks on DraftKings.

Meanwhile, the 49ers don't rely on Jimmy Garoppolo ($11,000 DK, $15,000 FD) nearly as much, as they've attempted the fewest passes in the league while rushing the most number of times. That's not to say he can't have big games, as we have to look all the way back to last week when he completed 28 of 37 passes for 317 yards and four touchdowns at Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this season, so while we can get excited about Garoppolo's ability to put up fantasy points in that matchup, Monday will be tougher. Though, maybe not that much tougher, as the Seahawks have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on DraftKings and the 12th-most on FanDuel, and four of the five highest scores they've allowed were in their last four games, coming against the Browns, Ravens, Falcons and Buccaneers, respectively.

Wilson will certainly be owned and be a popular captain/MVP pick because he's the best player in the game, but the price certainly forces you away from some of the good plays on the favored team. Meanwhile, most likely won't see a big game for Garoppolo, but it's certainly within the realm of possibilities, and he's likely to be underutilized for the 1.5x multiplier.

RUNNING BACKS

The 49ers run the ball more than any team in the league, but they do so with a number of different running backs, making it hard to key on only one. Matt Breida ($6,200 DK, $9,000 FD) leads the backfield in cumulative stats over the course of the season, though Tevin Coleman ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD) has been getting more playing time of late, mostly because Breida has been banged up. Then again, Breida always seems to be a little banged up, even if he's not on the injury report this week. Additionally, Raheem Mostert ($4,000 DK, $5,500 FD), who is questionable because of a knee injury, and Jeff Wilson ($2,800 DK, $5,000 FD) are around to poach touches, though Wilson's usage has been really low lately, making his two touchdowns in each of the first two games of the season seem like distant memories. Here's a breakdown of their cumulative carries and then a week-by-week breakdown, which you can see for yourself on our team trends page (all columns are sortable):

As you can see, Coleman and Breida are dominating the carries, and it's also true among the targets thrown to running backs, though they still don't play a major role in that department, as we'll see later:

The good thing is that neither Coleman nor Breida are that expensive when you consider you're likely to get nearly all of the backfield touches for a team that loves to run the ball and is favored at home, so rostering both isn't a crazy idea. Coleman feels a little overpriced, probably because of his four-touchdown game against Carolina when he also rushed for 105 yards on only 11 carries. That was his only game this season with more than 16.0 fantasy points on DraftKings or FanDuel, a level Breida has reached twice, including 114 yards and a touchdown against the Browns in Week 5 on only 11 carries. Given the price savings, it wouldn't be surprising to see Breida more owned than Coleman, and he certainly makes for a solid captain/MVP pick against a Seahawks defense that allowed three rushing touchdowns and 12 running back receptions in the past two games, which came against the Falcons and Buccaneers, teams that don't really utilize their running backs nearly as much as the 49ers.

On the other than, the Seahawks' backfield is dominated by Chris Carson ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD), who has rushed 175 times for 764 yards and three touchdowns this season, which are 141, 599 and two more, respectively, than backup running back Rashaad Penny ($3,000 DK, $6,000 FD), who played 29 offensive snaps in the past two games, rushing 12 times for 67 yards while being targeted four times all season. Finally, third-stringer C.J. Prosise ($2,600 DK, $6,000 FD) has been a healthy scratch each of the past two games. Even if he's active Monday, there's little reason to think he'll get enough touches to justify his price, even though it's fairly low. The matchup against the 49ers isn't exactly one that should be targeted, as they've allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel. Then again, their two bad games against the run came in their past two games against the Panthers and Cardinals, respectively, so there's a glimmer of hope for Carson. He seems more likely to be a contrarian captain/MVP pick, but there will definitely be people who try it in bigger-field GPPs.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The likely absence of tight end George Kittle ($9,200 DK, $13,000 FD) can't be understated, as he leads San Francisco in targets (57), receptions (46), receiving yards (541), receiving touchdowns (two), air yards (359) and red zone targets (nine). It's certainly possible that the 49ers try to run even more than they normally do because they won't have Kittle to run routes, though he may not have been their best option Monday night anyway. That's because Emmanuel Sanders ($10,200 DK, $11,500 FD) has fit in perfectly since joining the team, and he's likely to be heavily targeted by those who want exposure to the 49ers' passing attack. He was unsurprisingly not that productive in his first game, catching four of five targets for 25 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 against the Panthers, but he exploded last week against Arizona, catching seven of nine targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. Additionally, he's had a target inside the five-yard line in both games, and while the sample size is obviously small, Kittle is the only player to be targeted more than Sanders in the past two games, while Deebo Samuel ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) is the only other wide receiver or tight end to be targeted more than four times.

Samuel could see an uptick in targets with Kittle sidelined, and he had a co-season-high seven just last week. The Seahawks have been up-and-down against opposing passing games this season, but it's tough to see any kind of breakout performance from Samuel as opposed to other players in the game, especially since the Seahawks allowed 23 receptions and over 280 yards to wide receivers in each of the past two games, but that came against the Falcons and Buccaneers, who throw the ball significantly more than San Francisco. I don't want to say the rest of the 49ers' pass catchers are just a bunch of guys, but it's just very difficult to project any of the others for a good-enough game because of the lack of consistency we see on their target trend:

Kendrick Bourne ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD) scored a touchdown on his only target last week, while Dante Pettis ($3,400 DK, $6,000 FD) did the same on the only ball thrown his way. Pettis has had multiple catches just twice this season, with more games with one or zero targets (three) than games with more than three (two). That similarly applies to Bourne, who has three games with one target and three others with two. If volume is what you're looking for, this isn't where to look. Then again, they've been more reliable than Richie James ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who has one target in his last five games because he does most of his work on special teams, and Marquise Goodwin ($4,400 DK, $6,000 FD), who was inactive the past two games. Goodwin was getting a few targets per game when he played, but Sanders' addition all but ruined his upside. The one guy many could be considering is tight end Ross Dwelley ($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD), who was targeted four times last week while playing 52 snaps when Kittle was banged up, catching all of them for 29 yards. He's expected to play pretty much all of Kittle's snaps Monday, and given the potential if he's even half as good as Kittle, there will definitely be people targeting him (he's much more attractive on FanDuel as a minimum-priced player).

Given the certainty with Sanders, and the potential for more given Kittle's likely absence, there will certainly be fantasy players putting him into their captain/MVP spots, with pretty much any other 49ers' pass catcher likely to be low owned and barely used in the captain/MVP spots, making them much more suited for those with lots of lineups.

The Seahawks situation isn't nearly as sketchy, with Tyler Lockett ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD) the clear no. 1. Long dogged by a lack of target volume, he was heavily used in last weekend's game against the Cardinals, catching 13 of 18 targets for 152 yards and two touchdowns, his second consecutive game with at least 100 receiving yards. Those targets were all well and good, but we can't ignore that he was targeted fewer than eight times in the previous five games, and he has just as many games with at least 12 targets (three) as games with four or fewer. No. 2 wideout DK Metcalf ($7,800 DK, $12,500 FD) also killed the Cardinals last week, catching six of nine targets for 123 yards and a touchdown, his third touchdown in the past two games. Metcalf's targets have been elevated a bit recently, but he still only had one game with more than 70 yards before last week's explosion, and that came back in Week 1.

The big question for Monday night is how much the Seahawks will use Josh Gordon ($5,400 DK, $7,000 FD). Gordon doesn't have an injury designation despite recently returning from injured reserve because of an ankle injury that eventually led to his release by the Patriots, and while he is expected to be used a decent amount at some point, there's plenty of unknown about Monday night specifically, especially since the team was initially coy about whether he'd even be active. He's definitely a risk worth taking for those who have multiple lineups, especially since he's pretty cheap, but there's significant trap risk. If anything, the more Gordon plays the less Jaron Brown ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD) will, and that's after he played only 17 offensive snaps in each of the past two games.

If anything, tight end Jacob Hollister ($4,600 DK, $8,500 FD) could be the differential from Lockett and Metcalf after he caught four of six targets for 37 yards and two touchdowns last week against Arizona, with both scores coming in the red zone (then again, which tight ends don't score against Arizona?). Starting in place of the injured Will Dissly (Achilles), Hollister played a season-high 60 offensive snaps last week and figures to once again be used in the passing game. Unfortunately, we don't get anything close to a significant discount on either site, though he is probably more reliable than Gordon in the short term.

David Moore ($1,200 DK, $5,500 FD), Malik Turner ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Luke Willson ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) round out the available pass catchers, but none of them are playing enough snaps to see them making any kind of meaningful impact Monday night, with Willson the only one to be targeted in the past two games, and he had three passes thrown his way. Ultimately, Lockett and Metcalf could get some captain/MVP consideration for those who think Wilson specifically keys on one of them, but neither seem overly necessary against the 49ers' excellent pass defense.

KICKERS

We have a bit of a tricky situation when it comes to kickers because 49ers starter Robbie Gould is doubtful to play because of a quad injury, which means Chase McLaughlin should step into his place. Priced at $3,600 on DraftKings (the same as Gould), McLaughlin is not in the player pool on FanDuel after joining the team last week. He played in four games for the Chargers earlier this season, hitting six of nine field goals and all seven of his PATs, though rarely do we think about how good a kicker actually is rather than just the opportunities he might get that day. Gould comes in with 10 PATs in the last two games, though he had just one field-goal attempt because the 49ers' offense was so effective at scoring touchdowns. With a Seahawks defense that's better than what they've faced in the past two, McLaughlin should get enough opportunities to make him cash-game viable, at least on DraftKings.

Seahawks kickers Jason Myers ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) has attempted multiple field goals in six straight games after getting just one total try in the first three, and while his accuracy hasn't been great, the team is at least letting him kick from longer distances. In a similar way as their opponent, the Seahawks are facing a much tougher defense this week than they have previously, so there is a pretty easy path to seeing Myers getting multiple opportunities yet again.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The 49ers' defense ($4,900) has been an elite unit all season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in four of seven games, including zero touchdowns since Week 1. They are very good at getting in the backfield and putting pressure on the quarterback, registering 17 sacks in the past four games, though they haven't been turning the ball over much, and if there is any quarterback in the league who is good at avoiding pressure, it's Wilson. This game could be a significant defensive battle despite the high-ish total, so there will definitely be people rostering the San Francisco defense, even if they may not force many turnovers from Wilson, who has thrown one interception on 293 pass attempts this season. If anything, they may be better off trying to strip Carson, who has lost four of five fumbles.

The Seahawks ($3,200) have scored double-digit fantasy points just twice this season, including one time with a touchdown against the Cardinals. The difficulty in relying on them is that the 49ers don't turn the ball over that much because Garoppolo doesn't throw a ton of passes. Yes, he had four interceptions and lost one of two fumbles in his first three games, but he's had just four turnovers in five games since then. The cheaper price could have people going to the Seahawks and hoping the game is low scoring, but there's not a ton to like in terms of upside if they can't turn the ball over and return it for a touchdown.