Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys

The season is over for the 3-6 Cowboys now that Dak Prescott is out for the year, but they might be able to play a slight spoiler against the in-state Texans on Monday as the 6-4 Houston team tries to keep its slippery grip on the AFC South title. The 5-6 Colts are uncomfortably close after winning against the Jets on Sunday, so Houston needs to take this game seriously even though Dallas has had just about every tooth knocked out by this point. The Texans are favored by 7.5 points and the over/under is at 41.5.

QUARTERBACK

Cooper Rush ($8000 DK, $12000 FD) might or might not finish the game over Trey Lance, but even if that happens it's unlikely to result in especially good play. Given his own lack of ability and the bad roster around him, it would be unfair to expect Rush to produce outside of garbage-time scenarios.

C.J. Stroud ($9800 DK, $13000 FD) has had a brutal season due to the collapse of the offense around him, and even in this game there's a substantial danger from Micah Parsons in particular to cause problems for Houston's struggling offensive line. In general, though, this seems like a decent bounce-back spot for Stroud. The Cowboys will likely be giving up short fields, keeping Stroud in scoring range more than most other games this year, and the return of Nico Collins is a total game changer.

RUNNING BACK

Rico Dowdle ($9000 DK, $11500 FD) is clearly the main running back for Dallas at this point, and despite the tough matchup he might be productive here if only because Dallas will probably stick with him through garbage time, determined to justify their hype of Dowdle and marginalization of Ezekiel Elliott ($2600 DK, $8000 FD), who the Dallas coaching staff clearly resents. Houston's run defense is really tough, but maybe it won't look as tough if Dowdle gets looks at their backups.

Joe Mixon ($11000 DK, $16500 FD) should be productive in this game. The Texans can't screw around and lose this game, so hammering Dallas' weak run defense is a no-brainer, especially since Mixon has never looked as good as an NFL running back as he has this year. Dare Ogunbowale ($3000 DK, $6000 FD) might be the first runner off the bench, particularly in passing situations, but Dameon Pierce ($2400 DK, $7500 FD) is back from injury and is generally expected to take back over as the clear backup to Mixon. If so, Pierce could very well be busy in the second half of this game.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Nico Collins ($10400 DK, $15000 FD) is off the injury report and with that it's difficult to fade him on a single-game slate, even in his first game back from injury and even against a Dallas team that might not be able to make this a competitive game. Sometimes teams use cupcake matchups to reestablish rhythm and confidence for an otherwise struggling group, and it would be understandable if the Texans felt the need to kick around Dallas well into the second half just to get that Winning feeling back after a mostly difficult season. Tank Dell ($9400 DK, $10500 FD) is among the Texans who have really struggled in 2024 despite going into the year with high expectations. Perhaps those expectations were too high and Dell is basically not good enough to meet them, but if he's the real deal then Dell ought to be able to rapidly reestablish momentum now that Collins is back to dilute defensive attention. The third pass catcher call is difficult with Houston. Tight end Dalton Schultz ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) was probably the candidate the Texans had in mind going into this year, but he's been truly awful. Perhaps he can look better this one game, against his former team. Wideouts John Metchie ($4000 DK, $7000 FD), Xavier Hutchinson ($3400 DK, $7500 FD), Robert Woods ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) are all candidates to pop up otherwise, but guessing which or when/why is difficult. Metchie seems to have the most momentum of the group, and he might be the winner because he's a slot guy for Houston while Collins/Dell more so play on the boundary. Cade Stover ($1600 DK, $6000 FD) hasn't seen many targets but is playing a good snap count, making him a justifiable punt play.

CeeDee Lamb ($10800 DK, $13500 FD) is expected to play, but between the quarterback/offensive line circumstances and the back injury he's playing through it's difficult to tell what Lamb might be capable of here. Lamb's talent is substantial and so should be his usage in this setting, so he's certainly a justifiable pick, just not one that will provide much sense of security going into kickoff. Jake Ferguson ($5800 DK, $10000 FD) is stuck in mostly the same boat, though at least he has the benefit of being injury-free at the moment. Ferguson could inherit garbage-time usage even if Dallas gets blanked, but it figures to be somewhat challenging in general for Ferguson and the remaining wideout troupe of Jalen Tolbert ($4600 DK, $9500 FD), Jalen Brooks ($2000 DK, $6500 FD), KaVontae Turpin, Ryan Flournoy and Jalen Moreno-Cropper. Tolbert and Brooks were the top three with Lamb last week, but Brooks in particular has never been a productive player.

KICKER

Brandon Aubrey ($5200 DK, $9000 FD) might already be the best kicker of all time, and it feels dangerous to suggest fading him on a single-game slate, but Dallas' destroyed offense is going to eventually put harsh opportunity limits on Aubrey's field goal kicking. After double-digit fantasy points in the first six games, Aubrey has stayed in single digits in the three games since.

Ka'imi Fairbairn ($5400 DK, $9000 FD) is an excellent kicker in his own right, and it would appear that in this game he has the clearly preferable game script compared to Aubrey. The Texans offense deserves very little benefit of the doubt at the moment, but the same is true of the Dallas defense and the Texans should quite simply be able to move the ball better in this game.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Dallas ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) is likely overmatched in this game, but the Texans offense still has a lot to prove and their offensive line doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt against Micah Parsons. Dallas is basically in a bad spot, but there's a very narrow possibility that Parson does enough damage on his own to make the Dallas defense cash-viable (VERY NARROW).

Houston ($6200 DK, $9500 FD) has obvious defensive appeal as the Texans take on Cooper Rush or/and Trey Lance. Even without two defensive line starters (including star pass rusher Will Anderson), the Texans appear poised to give the Dallas offense some rough treatment.