Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks

Monday night's game between Detroit (-3.5) and Seattle could be a preview of the NFC playoffs, with the 2-1 Lions going into this year as a known Super Bowl contender and the Seahawks (3-0) threatening to join the list if they can keep up their winning ways. Unfortunately for the visiting team, their travels coincide with a long list of injuries in their defensive front seven, which up to this point had been an emphatic strength for Seattle. The Lions aren't perfectly healthy themselves – the absence of center Frank Ragnow might pose a challenge – but Seattle would probably love to trade places given that they'll be without Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe and Byron Murphy. The over/under is set at 46.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Jared Goff ($9400 DK, $12500 FD) has struggled through three games and might have seen another dangerous spot in this one, but the improbable hail of injuries in Seattle's front seven means that Goff should have plenty of time to set up in the pocket and observe the field. The Seahawks corners are generally good, but no defense is built to cover for as long as Seattle might need to in this one. If Goff stumbles here it would be disappointing, but it wouldn't doom Detroit to a loss given that the Lions run game also projects well in this setting. In fact, one way it could go badly for Goff's investors on this slate would be if the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs went bonkers on the ground, but the Seattle passing game should be formidable enough to answer when the Lions score, forcing Detroit to keep their foot on the gas pedal (knock on wood).

Geno Smith ($9000 DK, $13000 FD) is in a more dangerous spot here than Goff but is still playing at a high level, and it's important to keep in mind Seattle probably won't be able to run the ball much against a Detroit defense that effortlessly stalls even the best rushing attacks. If the Seahawks need to throw more then Smith just might be able to hold serve even so, especially since he has four good pass-catching options at his disposal. Heavy pressure and the threat of turnovers is certainly in play here, but if Smith has a high volume of pass attempts then the numbers will probably pile up eventually. If Smith struggles to post useful production in this game it might signal a blowout victory for the Lions.

RUNNING BACKS

David Montgomery ($8600 DK, $12000 FD) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($9600 DK, $14000 FD) are always difficult to call in a single-game slate, because both players are highly capable and both are regularly featured in the game plan, though Montgomery tends to gain in rush-heavy scripts and Gibbs tends to take up more room when the Lions air it out. Many times the correct answer with these two is Both, but that's of course difficult to afford in a game where there are many capable candidates to claim usage on both teams. Sione Vaki and Craig Reynolds are also hanging around at running back, but they tend to only play when a game is no longer competitive, combining for just 11 snaps through three games.

Kenneth Walker ($8400 DK, $11500 FD) is back and that's great news for Seattle, but be it him or Zach Charbonnet ($8000 DK, $8000 FD) it's difficult to imagine a Seattle running back doing much on the ground in this game. The Lions feature two nose-tackle types in their four-man front, with both Alim McNeill and D.J. Reader comfortable eating up double-teams. This makes it highly difficult for an offensive line to advance to the second level, and keeps the Detroit linebackers free to pursue. There's certainly a way to beat this Detroit run defense, but it probably requires a ridiculous amount of run-blocking talent that the Seahawks don't have.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

DK Metcalf ($10600 DK, $13500 FD) is a really tough fade on this slate, especially if you're projecting the Seahawks to be competitive. The Detroit run defense is suffocating to the point that it's difficult to imagine the Seattle run game taking off, in theory leaving more slack for the passing game. The passing game isn't guaranteed to thrive in this scenario, but if it does prove functional then the Seattle passing game could take a higher share of overall production than usual while maintaining a similar standard of overall production. Metcalf's size and speed is an extreme danger to a Detroit defensive scheme that asks its corners to play like bullies in man coverage. Tyler Lockett ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6600 DK, $10000 FD) are both dangerous themselves, of course, and post-hype tight end Noah Fant ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) still might pop up at some point. AJ Barner and Pharaoh Brown both play snaps at tight end but almost always stick to blocking. Depth wideout Jake Bobo might be the best candidate to see a target after Metcalf, Lockett, Smith-Njigba and Fant.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11200 DK, $15000 FD) is never to be doubted, and this game is no exception even though Devon Witherspoon might prove a challenging matchup at corner. The Seattle pass rush probably won't show up in this game due to their bad injury luck, and St. Brown might have all day to get open. If the Seattle pass rush is absent this could just as easily turn to the benefit of Jameson Williams ($6800 DK, $105000 FD) or Sam LaPorta ($7200 DK, $9500 FD), both of whom are in great spots here. Much of the slate will probably come down to how much those three produce, because it's not easy to afford all three plus Goff. Also, the Detroit run game could be lively in its own right in this one, potentially limiting the share percentage the Detroit passing game can claim in an otherwise highly favorable setting. This should prove to be a big pie, but there are many qualified candidates taking a stab at once. Kalif Raymond ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) can pop up at receiver, too, but Tim Patrick ($1600 DK, $7500 FD) might be pressing Raymond for his spot on the depth chart. Brock Wright is always a punt option at tight end as a high-snap, low-target tight end mostly focused on blocking.

KICKERS

Jake Bates ($4800 DK, $8500 FD) is the kicker for the favored team, and if the Lions take care of business here there very well could be some field-goal opportunities for Bates. Bates is not known for his accuracy but has a strong leg, so he might be able to knock down an attempt or two from further than 50 yards. If his kicking history otherwise is any indication, though, the accuracy probably can't be taken for granted.

Jason Myers ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) isn't exactly a Hall of Famer on the other side, but he has been a solid starting kicker for his 10 NFL seasons, with a couple truly excellent seasons sprinkled in there. There's a chance he could be active in this game – specifically the scenario where Seattle moves the ball consistently but stalls in scoring range – and if such an opportunity arises history says Myers will probably capitalize on it. The risk is that if the Seahawks by contrast struggle to get into scoring range, then their precious few trips might forego field goal attempts in pursuit of touchdowns.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Seahawks ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) defense normally looks formidable and Jared Goff has struggled through three weeks, but it's difficult to expect much of the Seattle defense while it's missing so many of its best players. If Goff turns the ball over in this game it would be a bad look for him, or a very good one for the Seahawks, depending on your viewpoint.

The Lions ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) defense doesn't project for an obviously great matchup here, but the group overall is quite good and could prove to be one of the better fantasy defenses of 2024. The run defense is smothering, and if Aidan Hutchinson can keep momentum the pass rush should provide sufficient support for an improved group of cornerbacks. The Seattle offensive line has had some trouble holding up to pass rush this year, and if the Lions really take Seattle by surprise then the Detroit defense could have something to do with it. The main danger is the explosive wideout trio of Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba, which could prove challenging even for Detroit's improved cornerback rotation.