Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns

Monday night's game between the Broncos and the visiting Cleveland Browns is not exactly one of the week's top matchups, but there's the potential for some entertainment anytime Jameis Winston is chucking the ball recklessly, and Bo Nix has quietly played very well for the Broncos the past two months. The absence of wideout Cedric Tillman (concussion) has the Browns offense in a pinched spot despite an impressive win over Pittsburgh last week, so the home-team Broncos and their top-shelf defense are favored by 6.0 points with the over/under at 42.0.

QUARTERBACK

Bo Nix ($10000 DK, $16500 FD) doesn't always play a spearheading role in the Denver offense, but his play in general has been quite good the last two months and at this point he's not an easy single-game slate fade. He has eight passing touchdowns in the past three weeks, and though he hasn't done it much lately Nix remains one of the league's most capable runners at quarterback. There's no obvious reason why Nix should disappoint here, unless the Browns get flattened so badly the Broncos barely attempt any passes.

Jameis Winston ($9600 DK, $15000 FD) has done a good job of limiting turnovers so far, throwing only four interceptions to seven touchdowns, but no one could really fault him if he struggled in this game. As much as Winston is a justifiable single-game pick due to his willingness to push the ball downfield, this Denver defense is one of the league's toughest and losing Cedric Tillman doesn't make anything easier. Winston seems like a player playing well but facing a difficult spot here – one or the other has to give and the question of which way could hold significant sway in the cashing formula Monday.

RUNNING BACK

Nick Chubb ($9400 DK, $13000 FD) is forever one of the league's best and most valiant players, but he's still probably well short of 100 percent back from his 2023 knee injury and the Browns offense is at risk of sputtering in this game. The Pittsburgh run defense might be a tad worse than Denver's, yet Chubb needed 20 carries to get to 59 yards against them. If Winston struggles as a passer then the defense will sell out to stop Chubb even more aggressively. It's never fully safe to bet against Chubb, but this looks like a difficult spot and at the very least if Chubb runs well here it would bode poorly for Denver's ability to see through their favored status. Jerome Ford ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) might be about as good of a play, especially if the Browns fall behind and start throwing the ball more.

The Denver backfield is almost impossible to approach in any informed way. Sean Payton will do what he will, and there will probably be no pattern or basis for any of it. With that said, if the Broncos play like the favorites they are then there might be at least one useful running back for cashing purposes between Javonte Williams ($6800 DK, $11500 FD), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4800 DK, $7000 FD) and Audric Estime ($4000 DK, $8000 FD). Williams is your heavy favorite to lead the team in snaps at running back, but only a slight favorite to lead them in production from scrimmage. Williams played 36 snaps last week yet somehow had just eight carries for minus-2 yards. Arbitrary opportunity and luck is what tends to determine the leading producer at running back for Denver in any given game, though at least Williams' higher playing time in theory gives him more chances to snag a decent opportunity.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Courtland Sutton ($10200 DK, $14000 FD) is rolling right now and he's a tough single-game fade even if he gets shadowed by standout corner Denzel Ward. Sutton can win jumpballs even when he's covered, and the rapport with Nix appears to be turning into something notable. Devaughn Vele ($6400 DK, $9000 FD) has emerged as the clear WR2 for Denver, slightly overtaking WR3/TE tweener Lil'Jordan Humphrey ($3200 DK, $6500 FD) for the second-most snaps behind Sutton. Humphrey should probably be thought of as a borderline punt play, but Vele is becoming a tough fade with his play lately. Troy Franklin ($3000 DK, $7500 FD) and Marvin Mims ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) fight for the scraps otherwise, though after a rough start to the year Mims has quietly picked up momentum the last few weeks. The Broncos very rarely use their tight ends as pass catchers, but your punt options as far as that goes are Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull and Nate Adkins.

Jerry Jeudy ($9000 DK, $11000 FD) might get shadowed by Patrick Surtain here and that would be bad, but Jeudy still isn't an easy fade at the moment. With Cedric Tillman out there's major target slack in the Browns offense, and Elijah Moore ($7800 DK, $10000 FD) can only pick up so much of it, even though Moore himself might be targeted a decent amount in this game. It might be David Njoku ($8400 DK, $12000 FD) who emerges as the leading pass catcher for the Browns, especially if Surtain is on Jeudy. Even if the Browns lose, Njoku could be one of the most productive players in this game. The remaining Browns pass catchers should be thought of as punt plays – tight end Jordan Akins ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) is steadily involved with a low ceiling, while at receiver the next man up appears to be Jamari Thrash ($1000 DK, $5500 FD). Thrash is assured nothing, but the rookie fifth-round pick has some promise as a prospect.

KICKER

Wil Lutz ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) isn't one of the league's top kickers but he's still rather good in his own right. His range is just good enough, and his accuracy from any point within that range is generally rock-solid – conversion percentages in the high 80s or low 90s. Playing at home as safe favorites means this game has a conventionally good setup for Lutz, who has five games this year with double-digit fantasy points, including 22.0 points last week.

Dustin Hopkins ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) has had a good career overall but it seems to be dwindling down, as his range is all but gone at this point (4 of 8 from beyond 50 yards). As the road underdog in addition to that, it's not easy to see how Hopkins has a good fantasy output here.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Browns ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) aren't a completely harmless defense as long as they have Myles Garrett, but they really don't have much else going for them. Garrett has zero help in the pass rush, and if the pass rush doesn't arrive then the otherwise good and expensive Browns corners become ineffective, too. That Nix is still a rookie and largely unproven means the opponent could be worse, but the Browns just don't look well-armed right now.

The Broncos ($5400 DK, $9500 FD) need to take the Browns seriously but if they do it would appear that the Denver defense has the advantage over the Cleveland offense. Denver's defense is one of the league's best by any measure, and although Winston has protected the ball reasonably well so far his interception tendencies will likely flare up at some eventual point.