This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Bengals are already in a tailspin, their misfortune likely due to the calf injury that Joe Burrow suffered in training camp and has attempted to play through in the first two weeks. Burrow and the Bengals offense had some sputters in the past, but not like this. Particularly against the Ravens' injury-battered secondary, Burrow clearly was not himself. The hope is that the calf will make progress by this kickoff, but it's not clear how much of that is hope and how much is belief. The Rams are not an easy opponent for a struggling team, but at least they have home field working for them. The over/under is 43.5 and the Bengals are favored by 2.0 as of press time.
QUARTERBACKS
The story of this game centers entirely on Joe Burrow ($11400 DK, $15000 FD). If his calf is cooperating, the Bengals should win and maybe by a lot. If his calf is still a problem then Burrow is no longer Burrow, and everything we assume about the Bengals no longer applies. We simply cannot know which way this is headed from outside the team. The Rams corners unequivocally can't match up with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, though.
Matthew Stafford ($10200 DK, $13500 FD) doesn't have the same concerns as Burrow, though there are ongoing concerns about the Rams offensive line, which could face a difficult test here. The Bengals also have good corner personnel in a well-coached scheme. Stafford has been very good in
The Bengals are already in a tailspin, their misfortune likely due to the calf injury that Joe Burrow suffered in training camp and has attempted to play through in the first two weeks. Burrow and the Bengals offense had some sputters in the past, but not like this. Particularly against the Ravens' injury-battered secondary, Burrow clearly was not himself. The hope is that the calf will make progress by this kickoff, but it's not clear how much of that is hope and how much is belief. The Rams are not an easy opponent for a struggling team, but at least they have home field working for them. The over/under is 43.5 and the Bengals are favored by 2.0 as of press time.
QUARTERBACKS
The story of this game centers entirely on Joe Burrow ($11400 DK, $15000 FD). If his calf is cooperating, the Bengals should win and maybe by a lot. If his calf is still a problem then Burrow is no longer Burrow, and everything we assume about the Bengals no longer applies. We simply cannot know which way this is headed from outside the team. The Rams corners unequivocally can't match up with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, though.
Matthew Stafford ($10200 DK, $13500 FD) doesn't have the same concerns as Burrow, though there are ongoing concerns about the Rams offensive line, which could face a difficult test here. The Bengals also have good corner personnel in a well-coached scheme. Stafford has been very good in the first two weeks – better than his numbers appear at a glance – and the Bengals need to take him seriously. Stafford is probably a top-10 NFL quarterback at the moment.
RUNNING BACKS
Kyren Williams ($9000 DK, $10500 FD) literally took almost everything the Rams backfield produced in Week 2, logging 75 snaps while Ronnie Rivers ($2400 DK, $5000 FD) was in second with three snaps. Williams is small and slow, raising concerns about his ability to accumulate yardage, but his workload appears entirely secure. Rivers is the same type of player as Williams, and the Week 2 usage implies Rivers will simply have no purpose as long as Williams is upright. The Bengals defense isn't exactly inviting, but if the Rams are moving the ball then it almost necessarily means Williams had something to do with it.
Joe Mixon ($8400 DK, $11000 FD) takes almost all of the usage for the Cincinnati backfield, but in the first two weeks the Bengals have been catching up so early that Mixon doesn't have many carries to show for it. He has 13 carries in each game, resulting in 56 yards for one and 59 in the other. With seven catches over that span he has remained active in the passing game, even when his rushing count lags. In this game Mixon should have a better shot at carry volume. The efficiency isn't guaranteed, but the usage should be there. Chris Evans ($200 DK, $7000 FD) is an interesting consideration on DraftKings especially.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Ja'Marr Chase ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) and Tee Higgins ($8600 DK, $125000 FD) cannot be covered by these Rams corners. There's no need to equivocate. But the issues with Joe Burrow's calf casts everything else into question. Tyler Boyd ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) is probably overqualified as Cincinnati's WR3, so he too could factor in if Burrow's calf cooperates. Trenton Irwin ($200 DK, $6500 FD) figures to log snaps as the fourth receiver. With Irv Smith out the Bengals will likely use Drew Sample ($200 DK, $6500 FD) as a three-down player, making him one of the interesting punt plays of the slate.
Puka Nacua ($10000 DK, $14000 FD) once again raked in Week 2, making it difficult to bet against him even in a challenging matchup against the Bengals. Nacua's target rate is unreal – 35 targets on 127 snaps – so clearly he is the centerpiece of the Rams offense as long as Cooper Kupp is out. Tutu Atwell ($7000 DK, $10000 FD) has also raked in Kupp's absence, making him a candidate to produce in this setting as well. Van Jefferson ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) has somehow gone from the elder statesman of this wideout crew to a forgotten man, but he remains heavily involved with 137 snaps over the first two weeks. Tyler Higbee ($6200 DK, $8000 FD) has also remained heavily involved, logging 70-plus snaps in both of the first two weeks. He has 10 targets over the two contests, making him a main consideration for the Rams in this one.
KICKERS
Evan McPherson ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) is one of the league's best kickers, especially from long range. He missed his one attempt from 50-plus in 2023, but over his career McPherson has made 14 of 17 kicks from 50 or more. The Bengals just need to get him to the 40 yard line in Rams territory.
Brett Maher ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) historically struggled from less than 50 yards, but he's made all five kicks from that territory to begin 2023. Maher has a strong leg matched by very few kickers, so he too has the ability to knock down multiple kicks from beyond 50 yards.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Both of these defenses have something going for them in this game, especially if Burrow's calf remains an issue. The Rams DST ($3400 DK, $9000 FD) probably isn't very good, despite some good showings to start the year. They're short on talent aside from Aaron Donald, so even if Donald is worth four defenders (he is) then the Rams should have trouble matching up with receivers like Chase and Higgins. With that said, if Burrow isn't himself then all bets are off.
The Bengals DST ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) projects better than the Rams defense, both because Cincinnati has the home field and because the Cincinnati defense has a lot more talent than the Rams do. The Bengals have varied personnel capable of both stopping the run and rushing the passer in the front seven, while their secondary has better personnel at cornerback in particular. Though the Bengals are still trying to replace star safety Jessie Bates, the hope is that 2022 first-round pick Dax Hill will eventually get to the same level.
