Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown

Monday night's two games couldn't be any more different, as we start off with the Saints hosting the Texans in a game with a 52.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook (the Saints are 6.5-point favorites), while the Raiders are 2.5-point home underdogs to the Broncos in a game with a total of 42.5. Needless to say, many DFS lineups will be focusing on the first game.

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson, HOU at NO ($8,600 FD, $6,800 DK): The pricing for the two-game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings seem pretty soft for cash games, which shouldn't make it overly difficult to roster Watson, who has the highest floor and ceiling among the group of four quarterbacks. Given how low the total is in the late game, trusting Derek Carr ($5,400) or Joe Flacco ($5,100) seems like a giant leap of faith, while Brees is the signal caller for a team that's one of the best at getting production from their running backs. Brees' player props on FanDuel Sportsbook are more aggressive than Watson's, as his passing yards total is set at 285.5 versus 275.5, and he's -192 for over 1.5 touchdowns versus -152, though Watson's rushing yards prop is at 39.5. Both should be safe for cash games, but the upside seems to favor Watson slightly more, particularly because of the effectiveness of the Saints' running game.

For reference on the player props for Carr and Flacco, the Raiders' QB is set at 237.5 passing yards and -160 for under 1.5 touchdowns while the Broncos' QB is 251.5 and -124 for under 1.5, respectively.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara, NO v. HOU ($9,000 FD, $8,500 DK): Given Kamara's ridiculous production over the past few years, and the fact this game has one of the highest totals in all of Week 1, there's little doubt he'll be highly owned Monday. While this game has plenty of play makers, Kamara may be the most explosive, and the Saints certainly do their best to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. Given the expected ownership, it makes some sense from a leverage standpoint to fade Kamara in favor of Latavius Murray ($6,000 FD, $4,100 DK), who is playing the Mark Ingram role this season. In a best-case scenario, Kamara does okay (we can't really expect him to have a bad game) but it's Murray who gets the touches near the goal line and converts.

Duke Johnson, HOU at NO ($6,500 FD, $6,000 DK): Given Kamara's price, Johnson looks extremely affordable as a running back expected to get lots of touches in a game with a total over 50. Even if the Saints are able to get ahead, Johnson's history of receiving success should keep him in the game for all three downs, a tremendous opportunity for a player in his price range. Carlos Hyde ($5,800 FD, $3,900 DK) is technically around as an option to take touches away from Johnson, but there really doesn't seem to be enough to warrant consideration as a pivot.

Josh Jacobs, OAK v. DEN ($6,800 FD, $5,000 DK): The Denver backfield situation is pretty unclear, with Phillip Lindsay ($7,000 FD, $5,200 DK) and Royce Freeman ($5,900 FD, $4,300 DK) in enough of a split that they become fairly sketchy for cash games. FanDuel Sportsbook has Lindsay at over/under 13.5 rushing attempts versus 9.5 for Freeman, which is enough of a split to make many look away. That being said, Jacobs' expectation isn't all that much higher (14.5 rushing attempts is his over/under), but no player in the game has better anytime touchdown scorer odds than his +130. There is definitely some hesitation about Jacobs being able to play three downs because of Jalen Richard's ($5,100 FD, $3,100 DK) excellent pass-catching ability, but we still might see head coach Jon Gruden giving the rookie an extra-long leash in the home opener. Then again, if the Broncos are able to get ahead early and force the Raiders to throw, Richard's cheap price on both sites make him a worthy GPP consideration.

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas, NO v. HOU ($8,500 FD, $7,800 DK): We have two of the best wide receivers in the league playing in the early game, with Thomas likely to be heavily targeted by Brees and DeAndre Hopkins ($9,000 FD, $8,000 DK) by Watson. Both players have receptions props at 6.5, while Thomas' yardage number is 85.5 versus Hopkins' 92.5. There will definitely be lineups that jam both receivers in, though you'll need some very cheap options elsewhere if you're not fading Kamara, and those three players could certainly represent the three most-targeted players on the slate. Thomas' -110 odds to score are slightly better than Hopkins' +125, but it's not a sizable-enough difference to sway you on its own. If there's one thing that ever-so-slightly favors Thomas it's that we wouldn't necessarily be shocked if Watson threw three touchdowns and they ended up going to Will Fuller ($6,100 FD, $5,300 DK), Kenny Stills ($5,200 FD, $3,900 DK) and Johnson, whereas Brees throwing three and none going to Thomas would be ... not as shocking? It's a stretch, I know, but these two are basically a coin flip and Thomas called heads, so here we are.

Courtland Sutton, DEN at OAK ($5,900 FD, $4,500 DK): Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,700 FD, $5,500 DK) are the top two receiving options for a team that's expected to win but not score that many points, and their expectations based on the player props aren't that high either. Sanders makes more sense on DraftKings because of the full point per reception, but the $1,000 more in salary feels too much to justify him. With only a couple receptions likely separating them, Sutton felt like the more attractive option on FanDuel, though his anytime touchdown scorer odds of +260 trail Sanders' +165 by a decent margin. Rolling with either Broncos' wideout means you're putting your faith in Flacco, which is always a scary proposition, which could turn some to the Raiders' Tyrell Williams ($5,500 FD, $4,400 DK) now that he's their no. 1 wide receiver. Unfortunately, he's facing off against one of the best cornerbacks in the league and will surely be a focus of the Broncos' defense.

Ted Ginn, NO v. HOU ($5,000 FD, $4,100 DK): Ginn is the no. 2 wide receiver for a team that's a 6.5-point favorite in a game with a 52.5-point total and there are roughly 10 players at the position more expensive. Kamara's heavy usage in the passing game almost makes him a wide receiver, but Ginn provides plenty of upside potential with anytime touchdown scorer odds better than any Texan other than Hopkins and Johnson and any Saint other than Kamara, Thomas and Jared Cook. His ownership isn't likely to be that high, but if you're looking for even less, Tre'Quan Smith ($5,400 FD, $3,800 DK) could certainly play the part for GPPs.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller, OAK v. DEN ($5,400 FD, $3,400 DK): When Jared Cook ($6,500 FD, $4,900 DK) is the most expensive tight end on a slate, it feels like a pretty good time to pay down. The $1,500 difference between Waller and Cook on DraftKings is more significant than the $1,100 difference on FanDuel, but it's a very usable difference when we have other positions worth prioritizing. I'll at least point out that Cook's +170 anytime touchdown odds are the third-best for the Saints, and his 45.5 receiving yards prop is the same as Kamara's, but it still doesn't feel like enough to justify the price. Paying up for him in GPPs could be a somewhat contrarian move, but how much upside are you really expecting? And while Waller doesn't exactly have a ton of experience helping people win tournaments (or anything, for that matter), the Raiders got great production from Cook as their starting tight end last season and they need to find someone else to take the targets that would have gone to Antonio Brown.

Noah Fant, DEN at OAK ($5,100 FD, $3,000 DK): Fant provides even more salary relief than Waller, though that's really the brunt of his fantasy appeal. A 27.5-yard prop and +410 anytime touchdown scorer odds don't scream "pick me!" but again, we're at a position that isn't deep and isn't likely to have a slate-altering player in it. Jeff Heuerman ($4,200 FD, $2,700 DK) is a known commodity in that we know he's not all that interesting from a floor or ceiling perspective, and if you're looking in his salary range, you may as well throw a dart at Jordan Akins ($4,100 FD, $2,800 DK) since he seems more likely to be involved in that passing game than block-first Daniel Fells ($4,000 FD, $2,500 DK), even though the latter is technically at the top of the depth chart.

Defense/Special Teams

Oakland Raiders v. DEN ($3,800 FD, $2,300 DK): The cheapest defense on both sites, considering the Raiders comes down to wanting the extra salary and seeing a scenario where Joe Flacco struggles and turns the ball over. We always want to remember that the priority for picking defenses is turnovers and not points allowed, and while teams that are heavy underdogs may present more interception opportunities as they try to throw their way back into games -- making the Broncos ($4,800 FD, $3,500 DK) the obvious top pick, which is why they are the most expensive -- the extreme variance makes paying up tough to swallow.

Player Props