Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Wild-Card Playoffs

I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.

Start/Upgrade 👍       

• QB Jalen Hurts (vs. SF)

Optimism about Saquon Barkley breaking out of his slump is justified, with RT Lane Johnson (foot) expected back at practice ahead of Monday's matchup against an injury-riddled 49ers defense. That's also good news for Hurts, who oddly had nine passing TDs and zero rushing scores over his final five games of the regular season. The 49ers are a perfect band-aid for ailing offenses, with LB Tatum Bethune (groin) being the latest starter banished to IR. Expect multiple trips to the red zone for Philadelphia, giving Hurts a chance to end his Tush-Push-TD drought.

QB Rankings for Wild-Card Round

1. Josh Allen (at JAX)
2. Drake Maye (vs. LAC)
3. Trevor Lawrence (vs. BUF)
4. Jalen Hurts (vs. SF)
5. Matthew Stafford (at CAR)
6. Justin Herbert (at NE)
7. Jordan Love (at CHI)
8. Caleb Williams (vs. GB)
9. Brock Purdy (at PHI)
10. C.J. Stroud (at PIT)
11. Aaron Rodgers (vs. HOU)
12. Bryce Young (vs. LAR)

• RB Saquon Barkley (vs. SF)  👍
• RB Travis Etienne (vs. BUF)  👍

No need to beat a dead horse when it comes to San Francisco's defense. If we go by statistics, however, it's Buffalo that has the worst run defense among playoff teams, allowing 2,315 yards (28th) and 5.1 YPC (30th) during the regular season. Jacksonville's late-season breakthrough was fueled by passing efficiency rather than the run game, but it seems to work out for Etienne in fantasy each week, one way or another. Expect Sean McDermott to maintain his usual focus on limiting big plays, which should open up space for Etienne as both a ballcarrier and short-pass catcher.

RB Rankings for Wild-Card Round

1. Christian McCaffrey (at PHI)
2. Saquon Barkley (vs. SF) 
3. James Cook (at JAX)
4. Travis Etienne (vs. BUF)
5. Josh Jacobs (at CHI)
6. Kyren Williams (at CAR)
7. D'Andre Swift (vs. GB)
8. TreVeyon Henderson (vs. LAC)
9. Omarion Hampton (at NE) - ankle
10. Kenneth Gainwell (vs. HOU)
11. Jaylen Warren (vs. HOU)
12. Woody Marks (at PIT)
13. Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. LAC)
14. Rico Dowdle (vs. LAR)
15. Blake Corum (at CAR)
16. Kyle Monangai (vs. GB)
17. Chuba Hubbard (vs. LAR)
18. Ty Johnson (at JAX) - ankle
19. Kimani Vidal (at NE) - moves up to 9-12 range if Hampton out
20. Emanuel Wilson (at CHI)
21. Bhayshul Tuten (vs. BUF)
22. LeQuint Allen (vs. BUF)
23. Ray Davis (at JAX) - moves up a few spots if Ty Johnson is out
24. Tank Bigsby (vs. SF)
25. Brian Robinson (at PHI)
26. Jawhar Jordan (at PIT) - ankle
27. Chris Brooks (at CHI)
28. Nick Chubb (at PIT)
29. Hassan Haskins (at NE)
30. Jaret Patterson (at NE)

• WR Davante Adams (at CAR)  👍
• WRs Tetairoa McMillan & Jalen Coker (vs. LAR)  👍

Adams scored 14 TDs in 14 games during the regular season, including a pair of scores in Week 13 when the Panthers handed Los Angeles a 31-28 loss. Matthew Stafford finished with just 28 pass attempts in a game where Carolina controlled possession, but the rematch should play out differently with the Rams back at full strength. 

On the other side, McMillan and Coker have the relative matchup advantage for Carolina's offense, facing a Rams defense that's solid in the front seven but shaky on the perimeter. There's also strong odds for a favorable game script in terms of passing volume, with the Rams potentially doing most of the throwing early on to build a lead. Catch-up mode should work well for McMillan and Coker, just as it did last week in the loss at Tampa Bay.

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WR Rankings for Wild-Card Round

1. Puka Nacua (at CAR)
2. Nico Collins (at PIT)
3. A.J. Brown (vs. SF)
4. Davante Adams (at CAR)
5. DeVonta Smith (vs. SF)
6. Stefon Diggs (vs. LAC)
7. Tetairoa McMillan (vs. LAR)
8. DK Metcalf (vs. HOU)
9. Parker Washington (vs. BUF)
10. Ladd McConkey (at NE)
11. Jakobi Meyers (vs. BUF)
12. Christian Watson (at CHI)
13. Khalil Shakir (vs. JAX)
14. Luther Burden (vs. GB)
15. Brian Thomas (vs. BUF)
16. Jayden Reed (at CHI)
17. Jalen Coker (vs. LAR)
18. Jauan Jennings (at PHI)
19. Quentin Johnston (at NE) 
20. DJ Moore (vs. GB)
21. Keenan Allen (at NE)
22. Jayden Higgins (at PIT)
23. Kayshon Boutte (vs. LAC) - hamstring
24. Rome Odunze (vs. GB) - heel
25. Ricky Pearsall (at PHI) - knee/ankle
26. Romeo Doubs (at CHI)
27. Calvin Austin (vs. HOU) 
28. Demarcus Robinson (at PHI)
29. Brandin Cooks (at JAX) 
30. Kendrick Bourne (at PHI)
31. DeMario Douglas (vs. LAC)
32. Xavier Legette (vs. LAR)
33. Tyrell Shavers (at JAX)
34. Dontayvion Wicks (at CHI) - concussion
35. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. HOU)
36. Adam Thielen (vs. HOU)
37. Xavier Hutchinson (vs. PIT)
38. Joshua Palmer (at JAX) - ankle
39. Tre' Harris (at NE)
40. Christian Kirk (at PIT)

• TE Colston Loveland (vs. GB) 👍

The Packers held Loveland to three catches for 30 yards just three weeks ago, before he put up 6-94-1 and 10-91-1 to close out the regular season. He was Chicago's most reliable pass catcher not only over the final few weeks but also throughout the second half of the season, with that aforementioned Green Bay matchup representing his second-worst fantasy total (6.0 PPR points) after Week 6. A Packers defense without Micah Parsons (knee) simply isn't scary, potentially setting up a nice day for Chicago's most consistent playmakers — Loveland and RB D'Andre Swift, with WR Luther Burden perhaps not far behind.

TE Rankings for Wild-Card Round

1. George Kittle (at PHI)
2. Colston Loveland (vs. GB)
3. Dallas Goedert (vs. SF)
4. Hunter Henry (vs. LAC)
5. Brenton Strange (vs. BUF)
6. Dalton Schultz (at PIT)
7. Oronde Gadsden (at NE)
8. Dalton Kincaid (at JAX)
9. Pat Freiermuth (vs. HOU)
10. Tyler Higbee (at CAR)
11. Colby Parkinson (at CAR)
12. Dawson Knox (at JAX)
13. Tommy Tremble (vs. LAR)
14. Luke Musgrave (at CHI)
15. Jonnu Smith (vs. HOU)
16. Cole Kmet (vs. GB)
17. Austin Hooper (vs. LAC)
18. Josh Whyle (at CHI)
19. Mitchell Evans (vs. LAR)
20. Cade Stover (at PIT)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

• QB Justin Herbert (at NE) 👎

New England's defense isn't dominant, but it doesn't need to be when facing one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. While C Bradley Bozeman (concussion) should be back this week, it's less clear if/when LT Jamaree Salyer (hamstring) will return. It's tempting to envision 40-plus attempts and big-time numbers for Herbert with RB Omarion Hampton (ankle) banged up, but the reality may just be a(nother) postseason face-plant for the Chargers' offense.

• RB Rico Dowdle (vs. LAR)

Chuba Hubbard got half of the snaps and touches after the first quarter of last Saturday's eventual loss to Tampa Bay. It's been a while since Dowdle handled a massive workload, in part because he's failing to make positive plays and help create down-and-distance situations that allow for more carries. Between the blowout risk and Hubbard's presence, there's an awful lot that can go wrong for Dowdle this week.

• WR Jauan Jennings (at PHI) 👎

It sounds like WR Ricky Pearsall (knee) may be out again, which means a boost for Jennings' target-share projection. The concern here is that his theoretically large slice will be coming from a very small/inefficient pie, with the Niners facing an elite defense on the road after taking a Week 18 beating from Seattle in the absence of LT Trent Williams (hamstring). Jennings' fantasy outlook admittedly improves if Williams ends up active while Pearsall is inactive. Still, the 49ers are more likely to find success going through Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.

• TE Oronde Gadsden (at NE)

Some tight ends take on extra target volume when their team's offensive line is struggling, with the QB forced to settle for short throws instead of pushing the ball downfield. Gadsden hasn't been that guy, which isn't surprising given that his emergence largely came from intermediate throws and big plays rather than dump-offs. Those dump-offs often go to WR Keenan Allen or RB Omarion Hampton, and we've also seen the Chargers sub out Gadsden for Will Dissly to get a better blocker on the field at times. I'm still a big believer in Gadsden, but he's in a tough situation until next season when the Chargers get Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back (hopefully).

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