Job Battles: Rams Running Backs

This Job Battles post will look at the Rams backfield.

Rams Running Backs

Cam Akers (51.6 NFFC, 55.15 BB10)
Darrell Henderson (140.45 NFFC, 123.44 BB10)
Malcolm Brown (230.25 NFFC, 227.39 BB10)
John Kelly

Coach Sean McVay made waves earlier this week when he suggested that the Rams might use a committee of running backs in 2020, including not just Day 2 prospects Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson, but even deep bench runners Malcolm Brown and John Kelly. This was unwelcome news for Akers' investors especially, as he had risen from a mid sixth-round ADP to his current one in the early fifth round following the 2020 draft, where the Rams selected him 52nd overall. His buyers didn't have a four-runner workload split in mind when they paid that price, but it's probably best to not overreact.

There's a chance McVay was just using an inclusive definition of committee or was otherwise speaking in noncommittal generalities, but even if he specifically meant to predict a change in the Rams' backfield approach, and even if he was speaking honestly in that case, there's still room for the Rams to spread the carries more while preserving the fantasy viability of at least one and maybe two of the backs. The Rams running back usage previously channeled almost singularly through Gurley, so lowering the RB1 role to the 500-to-600 snap range should be enough for Akers to come through at his roughly RB24 price tag yet would clear up at least 200 additional snaps for a player like Henderson.

PLAYER BACKGROUNDS

It would be strange generally for McVay to use an interchangeable four-man split at running back, and it would be especially strange to adopt that strategy out of nowhere in his fourth year coaching Brown and third year coaching Kelly. Kelly in particular is difficult to take seriously if Brown is on the roster – if McVay is eager to get Kelly onto the field, then why has Kelly played just 54 snaps over the last two years? Even with Henderson struggling in his rookie year and Gurley playing on a decreased workload, Kelly was on the Rams practice squad from Nov. 20 to Christmas last year.

While Kelly can perhaps be disregarded as the team's RB4, Brown by contrast has shown the ability to earn meaningful reps in the Rams offense, because he already did at Henderson's expense in 2019. The Rams matched a restricted free agency offer sheet the Lions signed with Brown before last year, giving Brown a two-year deal and a bit of a raise before he took 69 carries for 255 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games. According to OverTheCap.com the Rams could save $1.263 million on the 2020 cap if they cut Brown, but they'd have to replace his annual 150 special teams snaps in addition to the offensive functions he served a year ago. Cutting Kelly would save the team $750,000, so whether they keep Brown or Kelly as the RB3 might come down to how badly the Rams want that $500,000 difference. Considering Brown largely worked as a passing-down and goal-line specialist for the Rams last year, there's a decent amount at stake.

Brown (5-11, 224) posted roughly average size-adjusted speed and explosiveness testing as an undrafted rookie out of Texas. According to Mockdraftable.com's figures, his 40 (4.62, 37th percentile) and broad jump (117 inches, 47th percentile) are somewhat forgivable at his 65th-percentile weight. Interestingly, Brown's agility testing was very good even without adjusting for weight, his 6.86-second three-cone drill and 4.15-second 20-yard shuttle both 80th percentile or better. Although he was undrafted, Brown was a five-star recruit for the Longhorns, and though less than dominant he was still a four-year starter. The Texas offense was in the midst of its Dark Ages at the time, so Brown's mediocre rushing production there (2,678 yards and 24 touchdowns at 4.3 YPC) can only be held against him so much. Replacement-level as he might be, Brown is trusted by the Rams and provides them a steadying option if either Akers or Henderson struggle.

Brown's disappointing college production is a curious dovetailing subject in the case of Akers, whose production was never great at Florida State despite arriving there as one of the most hyped running back recruits of recent memory and the clear No. 1 running back recruit in his 2017 class. Like Brown, Akers' numbers likely suffered from poor surroundings. Both players arrived to their respective powerhouse schools only to find them in a state of decline, Texas failing under Mack Brown (2011-2014) and Florida State collapsing under first Jimbo Fisher and then Willie Taggart in Akers' case (2017-2019). Yet whereas Brown left the NCAA to a cold reception from the NFL, Akers' better collegiate production (2,875 yards and 27 touchdowns at 4.9 YPC) and superior athleticism (4.47 40 at 5-10, 217) made him a coveted prospect at the pro level, with the Rams not only selecting him in the second round (52nd overall), but also ahead of the higher-ranked J.K. Dobbins (55th overall). At that high expense and following the release of Todd Gurley, many observers understandably took the development to mean the Rams planned to make Akers into their next workhorse running back.

Of course, none of this takes into account Henderson and what he might have to say following a disappointing rookie season as a third-round pick out of Memphis. Akers' draft capital as a second-round pick is substantial, but if so then Henderson's draft capital at only 18 slots later is also important to consider. Henderson's collegiate career took the route opposite that of Akers and Brown, heading to Memphis as a modest three-star recruit before emerging as an elite producer at a mid-major school. Henderson's raw running ability was on full display with the Tigers, for whom he ran for 3,545 yards and 36 touchdowns on an absurd 8.2 yards per carry. Keep in mind, Henderson started ahead of and easily outproduced all of Tony Pollard, Antonio Gibson, and Patrick Taylor at Memphis. At 5-8, 208 with a 4.49 40, Henderson probably has less long speed than Akers despite being the smaller back, but Henderson's acceleration is uniquely good.

SNAP/WORKLOAD SPLIT

In 2019 the Rams logged 1,055 snaps from scrimmage and split their running back snaps between Gurley (807), Brown (226), Henderson (95) and Kelly (4). The year before that, on 1,060 snaps, it went Gurley (825), Brown (123), C.J. Anderson (98), Kelly (50) and Justin Davis (5). The Rams' play count should stay stable if not grow as the defense likely regresses a bit, so the possibility of 1,100 snaps over a 16-game season would be within the realm of possibility.

If nothing changes, then something like 550 snaps for Akers, 350 for Henderson, and 175 for Brown would seem like a reasonable expectation for this backfield. The exact usage tendencies are less clear, especially when it comes to the question of passing downs. It might be a coincidence, but as Gurley's usage declined last year the Rams seemed to replace some of his pass-catching functions with pass-blocking reps. Gurley saw his targets per game average drop from 5.8 to 3.3 last year, and according to PFF his pass-blocking reps per game jumped from 4.8 to 7.7. With Gurley subtracted from the offense and Tyler Higbee potentially featured in a role that didn't exist in the offense until late 2019, there's a chance that McVay might continue using his running backs less as receivers than he did in 2017 and 2018, choosing to instead use them as an extra blocker. That would be less than ideal for Akers and Henderson investors.

Akers looks comfortable as a pass catcher on tape, though, and Henderson has flashed his own abilities as a receiver, including in last preseason. If the Rams look to get Akers or Henderson going as a pass catcher then they should provide useful returns. It's just that to win pass-catching functions they'll have to earn them at the expense of players like Gerald Everett and Van Jefferson, who the Rams generally seem fond of in the passing game. It's possible but can't be taken for granted.