Exploiting the Matchups: Week 9 Start/Sit

With a six-team bye on tap, it's that point of the year when the holiday season is a perfect analogy for our fantasy football decisions – will we get a "trick" or a "treat" with our replacement calls?



In a year that's causing us to roll the dice with some wildly unpredictable names due to injuries (Raheem Mostert, anyone?), it's more likely the treats will have come from actual trick-or-treating, not mining the waiver wire.



But we still must dig deep into that candy dish to look for the best one, the tastiest treat we can get our hands on. Fortunately, the holidays, like any good sugar rush, come and go quickly. So, enjoy the high of watching those dice rolls after kickoff and cross your fingers they come up "treat." 



After all, there's really no way to accurately predict who will trick us (thanks, Belichick). When you roll the dice the house almost always wins (not sure how I went from Halloween to a casino, but stay with me here). Just like in seeking your number on a craps table or your favorite treat in a Halloween dish, the move is to boost your odds. Bet the statistically best numbers, pick as many pieces of candy as your hand can hold and opt for the players you know will have a role. After all, no touches, no treat.

It's still tough to discern a role sometimes with these fringe options, but I always try to marry the clearest path to the field with the weakest opponent. Obviously, that didn't work with Mostert or Kenjon Barner last week, but all you can do sometimes is follow that logic and hope for the best.



Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier – or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.


Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.


UPGRADE



QUARTERBACK


Dak Prescott, DAL vs. TEN


The Titans are a bad pass defense in disguise. Statistically, they're seventh in yards and are tied for the second-fewest passing touchdowns allowed (just nine in seven games). Those numbers, though, are buoyed by their schedule. So, far they've faced Blake Bortles, Josh Allen and Joe Flacco (the latter while getting blown out) and limited that uninspiring trio to just 485 yards and one score. When they've faced a competent passer, however, they've been exposed. Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Philip Rivers each topped 300 yards with two TDs. Prescott is not someone who usually gets confused with a competent passer, but he's been just that in recent weeks. In his last four games he's thrown for at least 273 yards or multiple touchdowns three times while averaging 7.8 YPA. Given that those three performances came against three defenses ranked among the top 13 in passing yards allowed, it stands to reason his success will continue versus the phonies from Tennessee. That he's coming out of the bye week, just added Amari Cooper and has finally been doing damage with his legs (115 and two scores rushing last two games) are nice bonuses.



Alex Smith, WAS vs. ATL


The Redskins don't want to throw the ball. And why would they? They have a major shortage of able-bodied wide receivers and Adrian Peterson is running the ball like Wolverine. As a result, only four teams have attempted fewer passes than Washington. Of course, this doesn't exactly help the argument for Smith this week. That said, it's certainly not as if Smith's talent is in question. He did after all lead the league in passer rating in 2017. And although he's a low-floor, low-ceiling player with a far weaker supporting cast in his new home, against an Atlanta defense that's allowed five quarterbacks to throw for at least 250 yards and three touchdowns, with three guys reaching 395 yards (Eli Manning even hit 399 against them!), Smith is a high-end bye-week replacement or superflex option for the first time since September.



Derek Carr, OAK at SF


In the battle of the bay on Thursday night, Carr will continue his quest to keep the Raiders from positioning for a quarterback atop the 2019 draft by taking advantage of a 49ers defense with an 18-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio (good for second worst in the league). In one of his better performances of the season, Carr completed 75 percent of his throws for 244 yards and three scores, while adding one on the ground. And he did this damage without targeting Martavis Bryant once and Jordy Nelson contributing just one reception. It seems shedding the dead weight of Amari Cooper on the field did wonders for a Raiders aerial attack that was inconsistent at best before the team's bye. Carr will now look to keep things humming against a Niners defense that allowed Josh Rosen to reach 250 yards and multiple touchdowns, both firsts for the rookie QB.


Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. KC


Seemingly a weekly upgrade, Mayfield will look to take advantage of a plus matchup for the third consecutive game. Having limited the turnovers the last two weeks with only one interception, he's boosted his floor. Although some of the production has come in garbage time, he's managed two touchdown passes in each contest as well. The reason he's yet to take full advantage is due largely to a porous offensive line and butterfingers group of targets preventing anything from coming easy. It's resulted in just 395 yards passing in the last two games, but with a new coaching staff calling the shots and a near certainty for garbage time numbers against a Chiefs defense that's allowed the second most passing yards in the league, Mayfield should put a more complete game together for the first time.



RUNNING BACK


Isaiah Crowell, NYJ at MIA


It's hard to trust a guy who's generated almost exactly a third of his rushing production (66.3 percent) in just two of eight games played, but if ever you were going to give Crowell another shot, this would be it. After three consecutive weeks of 40 or fewer yards on the ground at a 2.5 YPC clip, "The Crow" will finally take flight again in South Florida. Less than a month removed from a 219-yard shredding of the Broncos, Crowell is poised to get back on track against a Dolphins defense that's allowed at least 133 yards to the last two No. 1 rushers it's faced – Lamar Miller and Kerryon Johnson – with the pair each ripping off runs of more than 55 yards and averaging at least 7.4 YPC. Heck, even LeGarrette Blount gouged them for a 10/50/1 line two weeks ago.



Jordan Howard, CHI at BUF


It's not hard to see that the Matt Nagy offense is less than ideal for Howard. He has just one carry of more than 20 yards in 112 attempts and he's topped 15 carries or 4.0 YPC in a game only twice. With a hard-earned 81 yards and a score last week, he's coming off his most productive ground game of the season and is set up beautifully for an encore. The Bills allow 4.4 YPC to running backs and the 10 total touchdowns they've given up to the position trail only the Cardinals, Bucs and Giants. Beyond the numbers, however, is the expected game flow that should favor another heavy workload for Howard. With Nathan Peterman likely to draw the start under center for Buffalo, the Bears are not going to be challenged in this one.



Peyton Barber, TB at CAR


Barber has gotten a jolt of energy in recent weeks, likely motivated by the threat of Ronald Jones stealing some of his workload. Taking advantage of some plus matchups, Barber has registered at least 85 yards and a score in two of the last three games. Now, with Jones sidelined by a hamstring injury, the gritty runner will try making it three of four while squaring off with a Carolina defense allowing 4.6 YPC to opposing tailbacks. Since the Panthers have given up at least 97 yards or a touchdown to a running back in all but one game, it feels like a good bet Barber keeps the good times rolling.



Kapri Bibbs, WAS vs. ATL


In the last game Chris Thompson sat out versus the Cowboys, Bibbs totaled 56 yards and a score on six touches, including 4-43-1 as a receiver, which led the team. The best receiving threat out of the backfield besides Thompson, Bibbs also had two games last December in which he tallied at least 100 scrimmage yards or a score, including 12 catches between those two games. With Thompson suffering further damage to his already ailing ribs, the door is likely open for Bibbs to get involved again versus a Falcons defense that happens to lead the league in receptions allowed to tailbacks (62) despite having already had their bye week. One thing to watch out for will be Bibbs' own health, after separating a shoulder last Sunday, but he's already practiced in a limited fashion this week and will almost certainly tough it out if given an opportunity to see the field more in Thompson's more likely absence.



Duke Johnson, CLE vs. KC


Risky? Sure. Without question. It's awfully hard to have faith in a running back with no more than six touches in a single game midway through the season. But it proved true last week that sometimes a coaching change can make all the difference for an underproducing player with a history of production. Changing offensive coordinators in Arizona saw David Johnson turn 20 touches into 100 scrimmage yards while Larry Fitzgerald, ice cold through seven games, heated up with an 8-102-1 line. Cleveland's Johnson had more than 1,000 scrimmage yards and seven scores last season, has still produced a 100-yard scrimmage game this year despite his limited touches, is averaging 4.9 YPC and is one of a very short list of trustworthy playmakers for a Browns offense desperate for them. In an ideal matchup with a Chiefs defense that's allowed a league-high 551 receiving yards to tailbacks, gives up the most YPC (5.4), likely will be missing top inside linebacker Anthony Hitchens (ribs) AND just let Devontae Booker total 101 scrimmage yards on 13 touches, it's Johnson's time to shine.



WIDE RECEIVER


D.J. Moore, CAR vs. TB.


An average of two wide receivers per game have posted at least 115 yards or a touchdown against the Buccaneers. That's 14 players producing at least flex worthy numbers, with five different wideouts that managed at least 88 yards and a score. Finally being utilized for his ability to find soft spots in coverage and run like the Tasmanian Devil after the catch, Moore is fresh off a breakthrough performance in which he piled up 129 scrimmage yards on seven touches against the Ravens' second-ranked pass defense. The first receiver selected in the 2018 draft has got to be licking his chops to face this miserable Tampa defense.



David Moore, SEA vs. LAC


In the Chargers' last four games a non-primary target has registered at least 82 yards or a score against them, with the likes of Tajae Sharpe, Martavis Bryant and Damion Ratley reaching that yardage mark. Moore only has 11 catches this season, but it's time to take the second-year, seventh-round draft pick seriously given that four of his catches have gone for touchdowns. In the last four games he's tallied a catch of at least 28 yards and he's scored those four TDs in just the last three outings. Coming off a team-high 97 yards against the Lions, the unknown Seahawks wideout is going to make sure to keep demanding attention.



Chris Godwin, TB at CAR


Godwin caught a touchdown in all three of the games Ryan Fitzpatrick started and finished and even snagged the game-tying two-point conversion once "FitzMagic" took over in the second half last week. Although the Panthers are tied for the fewest touchdown passes allowed to wide receivers (five), that's a mirage that's about to change this week. The Panthers have already had their bye week (so they've played one fewer than the teams they're tied with) and they've had the benefit of facing teams with no receiver talent (Cowboys and Redskins) or very thin wide receiver trees (Eagles, Giants and Bengals). 



DeVante Parker, Danny Amendola, MIA vs. NYJ


Even if Kenny Stills suits up with a groin injury that kept him sidelined in Week 8, the passing attack figures to run through Parker and Amendola for the foreseeable future. The latter has been steady with at least five catches in three consecutive games and the former finally was healthy and productive with a career-high 134 yards last week on a team-high nine targets. Facing a Jets defense that's allowed the most catches (129) and third most receiving yards to wideouts (1,535) in the league, this very poor man's Batman and Robin duo should remain productive for at least one more game.



Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB at NE


Sure, the Packers have Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb back in the fold. And yes, that did reduce Valdes-Scantling's snaps from more than 60 the previous two games to just 31 versus the Rams. But his opportunities didn't take much of a hit. Valdes-Scantling still saw five targets and was trusted by Aaron Rodgers to haul in the Packers' final touchdown on a 40-yard go route. That catch gave him his third grab of at least 38 yards in his last four outings and gave him at least 100 yards or a score in his last three. Considering that the Patriots have allowed 300-plus yards passing to their last four opponents – including the lowly Bills last week – it seems likely the 6-foot-4 rookie who blazes a sub-4.4 40-yard dash is going to maintain a role even with the Packers fully stocked at receiver. If that continues paying dividends, no one should be surprised.



TIGHT END


Cameron Brate, TB at CAR


If bye-week desperation leads to scrambling at the tight end position, don't overlook Brate. Sure, he's been quiet the last two games with O.J. Howard back in the lineup, but facing a good Carolina offense in what could easily become a shootout, it's all hands on deck for the Buccaneers' pass catches. Considering the Panthers have allowed the third-most catches, fourth-most yards and are tied for the most touchdowns to tight ends, Brate could get back on the track that saw him go on a three-game scoring streak in the games that bridged Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston starts.



Chris Herndon, NYJ at MIA


If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Gang Green's rookie tight end has found the end zone in three straight games and is arguably Sam Darnold's best option within striking distance. Given the sad state of the Jets' receiving corps, expect Herndon to continue getting premium looks versus a Miami defense that's tied for the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends.



DOWNGRADE



QUARTERBACK


Philip Rivers, LAC at SEA 


Rivers has been a model of consistency this year with at least 200 yards and multiple touchdown passes in every game so far. He's also been hyper efficient, completing 69.1 percent of his throws for a very healthy 9.1 YPA. This week will be where the rubber meets the road, so to speak. Seattle is still among the hardest stadiums to play in due to the crowd noise, particularly for quarterbacks, and while they're no longer "The Legion of Boom," the new wave of Seahawks defenders allows the fewest fantasy points to signal callers. In their only two home games they held Jared Goff and Dak Prescott to just one touchdown apiece while picking them off twice each. Facing a defense that's top five in YPA (7.0), passing yards per game (219.0) and passing touchdowns (10) allowed, Rivers could go off course for the first time this year in Seattle.



Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at BAL


The second-stingiest pass defense in the league, the Ravens are coming off two of their worst performances of the season in which they allowed Cam Newton and Drew Brees to each complete better than 70.0 percent of their passes for more than 200 yards and two touchdowns. Not coincidentally, the Ravens lost both games. With a mediocre offense, their hallmark remains a stifling defense. That's how they win ball games. And with their arch rival coming to their house, there's a great deal of pressure for their banged up secondary to regroup, step up and redeem themselves. It's a must for the sake of their season, and with their familiarity with Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense coupled with the confidence gained from having limited "Big Ben" to less than 300 yards and only one score in his house in September, here's betting Baltimore puts the purple into the "black and blue" AFC North. 



Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at BUF


Few quarterbacks have been as productive in their last four games as Trubisky, who's racked up 14 total touchdowns in that span and rushed for 232 yards. It has not been all glamorous, however, as the raw second-year signal caller had piled up the fantasy points the last two Sundays despite some otherwise ugly numbers as a passer. Versus the Patriots and Jets at home he completed just 53.2 percent of his throws and managed 7.0 YPA, which was dragged up significantly by a 70-yard screen pass on a busted coverage and a 54-yard Hail Mary that nearly tied the Pats at the end of regulation. Visiting a Buffalo defense that's limited Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins to a combined three touchdown passes may very well expose Trubisky's flaws even further.



RUNNING BACK


Tevin Coleman, ATL at WAS

With at least 77 scrimmage yards or a score in all but one appearance this year, Coleman has established himself as a high-floor guy. With only one game of more than 100 yards, however, he's also a low-ceiling option. This week when he faces a rising Redskins defense – led by recent first-round defensive lineman picks Da'Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen – that has held the likes of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and David Johnson to less than 40 yards rushing apiece, Coleman's floor could be in the basement.



James Conner, PIT at BAL


In his best six games Conner has piled up a whopping 878 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns. In his previous meeting with Baltimore he managed just 44 yards. It's no coincidence that the Ravens have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tailbacks. But then again, it's also no coincidence that Conner's level of play has risen with each week since that lowly performance as the day Le'Veon Bell shows up grows theoretically closer. So, while you're not about to bench the guy that's rumbled for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns in three consecutive games, it is best to prepare for the worst by swinging for the fences with another starting decision or two.



Melvin Gordon, LAC at SEA


In their last four games, the Seahawks stuffed the run as well as anyone. In that span they've held David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Marshawn Lynch and Kerryon Johnson to a combined 215 rushing yards, with none of them topping Gurley's 77 or churning out the yards at better than 3.5 YPC. Sure, Gurley got his with three scores, and yes, Gordon is on a career-high touchdown pace, too. But Gordon is unlikely to be 100 percent healthy as he's battled a hamstring issue the last two weeks. If he's active, he's in your lineup. The tough defensive opponent coupled with the injury risk, however, gives Gordon a much more mortal floor than the Avenger's-like floor he displayed pre-injury. Like with Conner, adjust lineups accordingly.



WIDE RECEIVER


JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT at BAL


It's nerve-wrecking timing for Smith-Schuster owners to see the burgeoning star have to visit the Ravens' tough secondary. After a scintillating start to the season with at least 115 yards in the first three contests, Smith-Schuster hit the break pedal in Pittsburgh's first meeting with Baltimore when he generated only 60 yards despite seeing 11 targets. In the last four outings, including that one, he's topped the century mark once and caught exactly four balls in three of those, with two netting below 35 yards. With Antonio Brown and James Conner as the focal points of the offense, it will remain difficult for the second-year wideout to produce versus arguably the best defense he'll see this season.



Tyreek Hill, KC at CLE


It's awfully hard to bench the most explosive player in the league in the most explosive offense in the league, but if Hill's groin injury is significant enough to force him to miss any practice time this week, it may be too risky to use him if he suits up on Sunday. Sure, he's scored eight touchdowns in eight games with a couple week-winning monster efforts included, but he's also been quiet a few times. And facing the stellar coverage of rookie first-round pick Denzel Ward, who's twice held Antonio Brown less than 100 yards, it's possible Hill underwhelms if he fights through the injury. It's one of those scenarios where if he plays, you play him, but it's not a bad idea to aim for as much upside as possible with other starting decisions.



Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. DET


Diggs is coming off his second-best performance of the season, but it included his first touchdown since Week 2 and was on the heels of consecutive games with just 33 yards. And one of those disappointing outings came despite a whopping 15 targets against the porous Jets' secondary. The Lions did get shredded last week versus Russell Wilson, but he's been on fire lately and even after giving up a couple scores to wide receivers in that loss, Detroit remains one of the best defenses against the position. In fact, they've allowed the fewest receptions and second fewest yards to wideouts. With 2017 All-Pro cornerback Darius Slay likely to square off with Diggs the majority of the game, it could be back to the quiet days while Adam Thielen dominates out of the slot.