Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit

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Published on October 28, 2021

Byenado, Byemageddon, or whatever else you want to call it... bye, bye. There are only two teams off the schedule in Week 8, and the six teams coming back from byes all appear reasonably healthy. Skill-position depth charts in Washington and New York are still a mess, but we're essentially looking at a full range of options for Week 8, raising out Start/Sit standards compared to the mess that was Week 7.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Thursday morning.

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Quarterback

Joe Burrow (at NYJ)

56% started

Burrow has thrown multiple TD passes each week this year, and he's coming off back-to-back games with a new season high for fantasy scoring. And while he hasn't quite hit the Brady/Stafford level of efficiency where the total lack of rushing stats is almost a non-concern, Burrow's upward trend suggests he just might get there by the end of the season.

For now, he'll take on a Jets defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass (28.1%) and 22nd in NY/A allowed (6.9). Gang Green hasn't allowed many fantasy points to QBs, but that's mostly on account of giving up rushing TDs (11) rather than passing scores (seven), not actually playing good defense. The Jets are the only team in the league without an interception, and they've given up the eighth most passing yards per game

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Thursday morning.

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Quarterback

Joe Burrow (at NYJ)

56% started

Honorable Mentions: Jalen Hurts, PHI at DET; Teddy Bridgewater, DEN vs. WAS; Sam Darnold, CAR at ATL; Geno Smith, SEA vs. JAX

Running Backs

Darrel Williams (vs. NYG)

67% started

Williams' two starts have come in an 18-point win and a 24-point loss. In the first game, against Washington, he finished with 21-62-2 rushing and 3-27-0 receiving on 72 percent of snaps. In the second, against Tennessee, he put up 5-20-0 and 3-30-0 on 64 percent. That's actually a better workload than what Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) was getting, especially if we consider that Williams played 79% and 75% of snaps prior to the fourth quarter the past two weeks (with Jerick McKinnon and Derrick Gore picking up some touches in garbage time).

Williams should get back to double-digit carries with the Chiefs favored by 10 points this week, and he could even push for 20-plus touches again if KC runs away with it or bad weather leads to more rush attempts (the forecast doesn't look terrible, but it'll be cold and possibly rainy). Plus, the Giants have been subpar defending the run this year, ranking 22nd in DVOA, 20th in YPC (4.4) and 24th in yards per game (125.6).

Zack Moss (vs. MIA)

28% started

Between the pass-heavy offense and Devin Singletary's presence, Moss still doesn't offer much of a volume ceiling, with 16 touches representing his career high in 18 regular-season appearances. However, he does tend to get a little more work when the Bills win by a lot, not to mention the increased odds for a TD (or two) when the opponent is overmatched. That was the recipe back in Week 2, when Moss scored two TDs against the Dolphins despite being limited to 28 percent snap share in his first game of the season. He's played at least 55 percent in the four games since then, averaging 11.5 carries for 45.5 yards and 2.0 catches for 25.3 yards with a pair of touchdowns.

Honorable Mentions: Damien Harris, NE at LAC; James Conner, ARZ vs. GB; Alex Collins, SEA vs. JAX; Devin Singletary, BUF vs. MIA; Samaje Perine, CIN at NYJ

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton (vs. WAS)

68% started

Between the mediocre fantasy line (5-68-0) on national television last week and Jerry Jeudy's likely return this week, Sutton seems to be falling out of favor with some of his fantasy managers, despite giving them three huge games through the first seven weeks of the season (coming off an ACL tear, no less). That's not to say we should start players out of gratitude, but rather that we should start them against Washington's secondary until we see evidence of competence.

While WFT has the advantage up front, Sutton and Jeudy should run circles around a porous secondary, one that holds PFF's second-worst grade for pass coverage. It's embarrassing to have that defensive line and rank 24th in NY/A (7.2) and 29th in pass-defense DVOA (29.2%). Washington defensive backs William Jackson (knee), Landon Collins and Bobby McCain aren't exactly youngbloods, but it's a little surprising to see all three looking totally washed up all of a sudden. Jack Del Rio is lucky Ron Rivera's so loyal.

Cole Beasley (at MIA)

18% started

Beasley's playing time (and target volume) has been inconsistent this year, with some of his 2020 snaps going to TE Dawson Knox and H-Back Reggie Gilliam (it also doesn't help that Emmanuel Sanders has been healthy, while John Brown was oft-injured last year). The Bills aren't wrong for taking Beasley off the field in favor of some heavier formations, but it shouldn't happen as often this week with Knox ruled out due to a hand injury. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll figures to rely on three- and four-wide formations with Tommy Sweeney filling in at tight end.

Honorable Mentions: Michael Pittman & Zach Pascal, IND vs. TEN; Tee Higgins & Tyler Boyd, CIN at NYJ; DeVonta Smith & Quez Watkins, PHI at DET; Emmanuel Sanders, BUF vs. MIA; Sterling Shepard, NYG at KC; Robby Anderson, CAR at ATL; Tyler Johnson, TB at NO; Equanimeous St. Brown, GB at ARZ

Tight End

Dan Arnold (at SEA)

4% started

The ownership percentage might suggest this is only a deep-league play, but that's not really the case after Arnold saw 13 targets over the last two games before a Week 7 bye, playing 73 and 62 percent of Jacksonville's offensive snaps. That's the same number of targets as Laviska Shenault over the two-game stretch, and just three fewer than No. 1 receiver Marvin Jones. The tight end should stay busy this Sunday against a Seattle defense that ranks 23rd in NY/A (7.0) and 25th in DVOA against the pass (19.0%). It may be an ugly game, but the defenses aren't that much better than the offenses.

Honorable Mentions: Hunter Henry, NE at LAC; Dallas Goedert, PHI at DET; Gerald Everett, SEA vs. JAX

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Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa (at BUF)

14% started

Tagovailoa has returned to the lineup with back-to-back outings above 20 fantasy points, but that was against the Jaguars and Falcons, while Week 8 brings a visit to Buffalo. The Dolphins, of course, are still a complete mess, with their coaching staff seemingly on the hot seat and their wideout group still banged up.

There is a shot for DeVante Parker (hamstring) to return this week, but Will Fuller (IR/finger) isn't expected back, and Miami's banged-up defense may have trouble getting off the field. As of Thursday, the Dolphins are 14-point underdogs and sport the third worst implied total (17.25) of the week. Tua is only worth starting in two-QB or superflex, and even then it shouldn't necessarily be automatic if you have a third option.

Honorable Mentions: Aaron Rodgers, GB at ARZ; Dak Prescott, DAL at MIN; Mac Jones, NE at LAC

Running Backs

Javonte Williams (vs. WAS)

45% started

Williams finished with his best fantasy line of the year in last Thursday's loss to the Browns, thanks to six catches for 32 yards and a touchdown. His role, however, was no larger than usual, as Melvin Gordon had a 58/42 advantage in snap share and took eight carries to Williams' four. Even the receiving production was a bit fluky, as Gordon was actually on the field for four more pass snaps, while Williams got his seven targets on only 15 routes.

It's tempting to think the success will continue with Denver hosting a lousy Washington team, but one of the few things WTF has done right this year is defending the run (8th in DVOA, 6th in YPC), and it's not like the Broncos don't have huge issues of their own. We can't count on positive game script, nor can we count on Williams to see more work than Gordon.

David Johnson (vs. LAR)

9% started

Johnson is getting a bit more attention this week, coming off one of his better games and now seeing Mark Ingram traded to the Saints. The problem is that "one of his better games" worked out to 5.2 standard points and 10.2 PPR points, with Johnson failing to find the end zone for a sixth straight week. Phillip Lindsay is a better bet than Johnson to take over most of Ingram's carries on early downs, and both of them will have to contend with the Rams defense this week. Any optimism should be put on the shelf until the Week 9 matchup with Miami.

Honorable Mentions: Myles Gaskin & Salvon Ahmed, MIA at BUF; Tony Pollard, DAL at MIN; D'Ernest Johnson, CLE vs. PIT; Phillip Lindsay, HOU vs. LAR

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks (vs. LAR)

54% started

Ultimately, Cooks should land somewhere between his red-hot September (107.6 YPG, 10.1 YPT and ice-cold October (45.0 YPG, 5.6 YPT), though an honest assessment of the Houston offense suggests it'll probably be closer to the latter. That's especially true this week, even if QB Tyrod Taylor returns from injured reserve, with Houston facing a Rams defense that ranks ninth in NY/A (6.0) and fourth in DVOA against the pass (11.1%). There's also some chance of a Jalen Ramsey shadow, especially after Ramsey spent more time on the perimeter last week.

Randall Cobb (at ARZ)

19% started

The volume potential makes Cobb startable, but even with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, expectations for efficiency should be modest. For starters, the Cardinals typically use their best cornerback, Byron Murphy, as the slot man in nickel formations. Then there's the impact of facing a defense that doesn't have to worry about Davante Adams (or Allen Lazard... or Marquez Valdes-Scantling). Sure, Cobb will see targets, but they'll be coming against a top-10 defense that can crowd the middle of the field given Green Bay's lack of perimeter weapons this week.

Honorable Mentions: Mike Evans, TB at NO; Jaylen Waddle & DeVante Parker, MIA at BUF; Corey Davis & Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. CIN

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski (at NO)

25% started

Gronk appears ready to return after missing four games, but there's no guarantee of a full workload, and the matchup certainly won't do him any favors. The Saints defense has been strong overall this year, and it's been especially effective at guarding tight ends, allowing just 5.4 YPT and zero TDs on 44 targets. If possible, wait until after the Week 9 bye to re-insert Gronkowski into lineups.