Exploiting the Matchups: Week 5 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on October 3, 2024

The end of Week 4 isn't technically the quarter mark of an NFL season now that teams play 17 games, but it's still the point at which I feel more confident in my reads on the ongoing campaign and am willing to park more weight behind thoughts/observations. In 2021, 2022 and 2023, it was clear to me by this point that I was going to have a good season with my various fantasy interests, and I felt similarly confident about the advice I'd been giving here on RotoWire.

This year has been a different story. I've still won more fantasy matchups than I've lost, but not by a wide margin, and it's clear some of my core strategies — like investing significant draft capital in TEs — are not going to work out. I also think there have been a few more misses than usual in Exploiting the Matchups, at least in terms of the players I list as starts/upgrades. That kind of makes sense within the context of WR and TE scoring being way down in general, but my job is to overcome those challenges, not complain about them.

It turns out a lot of the early concerns about poor offensive efficiency league-wide were either slightly misguided or exaggerated. Volume is down to 60.8 plays per team game after 15 straight years of 62.9 or higher, as offenses are running more often and throwing shorter passes, which means fewer clock-stopping incompletions. The drop in points, 21.6 per team

Teams are actually averaging more points per drive (1.97) than they did the past two years (1.92, 1.88), and the percentage of drives that end in a turnover (10.3 percent) is at an all-time low. The percentage of drives ending in a TD or FG is 37.9, which will be the second-highest mark ever if it holds. It's not that offenses are less efficient; it's that many are playing more of a possession game and taking fewer risks downfield.

There are exceptions, of course, with seven starting QBs sending at least 15 percent of their pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield (Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Jordan Love and Anthony Richardson). Purdy, Lawrence, Richardson and Love are also near the top of the league in rate of throws in the intermediate range, while Allen and Williams have mostly relied on short stuff when not chucking it deep (Murray falls somewhere in between).

It's interesting, and arguably even surprising, that TE production has dropped by so much more than WR production in a league where teams are throwing shorter passes and putting more emphasis on possession at the expense of generating big plays. A lot of this is in response to rates of zone coverage increasing, yet again, with defensive coordinators especially fond of coverages that take away the deep ball. One might theorize that tight ends could be an antidote, be it as seam-busters against split-safety zones or short-pass catchers in the flats.

It hasn't played out that way, and the only tight ends living up to ADP so far are the ones that were drafted outside the Top 100. There are some promising indicators for a few of the earlier draft picks to eventually put up ADP-justifying numbers — namely Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson and George Kittle — but it's clear that others like Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts were absolute wasted picks.

It's also clear WRs Malik Nabers and Nico Collins are two of this season's true difference-makers, a distinction that otherwise has mostly gone to running backs (unlike in the previous few seasons). Parsing out the rest of the WR position isn't easy, but we at least have a pretty good feel for roles and usage with four games in the books for each team, even if the sample is still small enough to be considerably distorted by flukes. I'll touch on some of that stuff below, highlighting players that not only have favorable matchups but also figure to generally average more points than they have through four weeks.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Brock Purdy (vs. ARZ) — 54% started

Start Over — Patrick Mahomes (vs. NO), Dak Prescott (at PIT), Jordan Love (at LAR)

Purdy is a prime candidate for positive TD regression, having thrown for scores on 4.1 percent of his pass attempts (compared to 7.6 in 2022 and 7.0 percent in 2023) despite leading the league in YPA again (9.3, with an upward trend each week). He also doesn't have any rushing scores, which should change fairly soon given that he's averaging 4.5 rush attempts for 18.8 yards, nearly doubling last year's production (2.4 carries for 9.0 yards).

The combination of increased scrambling and a deeper aDOT (11.2, up from 8.4 last year) is highly promising for Purdy's future fantasy production, as is a Week 5 home matchup with an Arizona defense that's allowing the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Cardinals have been especially vulnerable to intermediate passes, allowing 16 completions for 247 yards and two TDs on 19 pass attempts in the range of 10-19 yards downfield. They've been good at discouraging the deep ball but terrible at defending short and intermediate stuff, with only Washington sporting a worse EPA per dropback (0.44 vs. 0.41) on throws less than 20 yards downfield.

Other Good Matchups: Jordan Love (at LAR), Justin Fields (vs. DAL), Caleb Williams (vs. CAR), Kirk Cousins (vs. TB), Deshaun Watson (at WAS)

Running Backs 👍

Najee Harris (vs. DAL) — 67% started

Start Over — Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. MIA), Chuba Hubbard (at CHI), Travis Etienne (vs. IND)

Harris was in this same space last week and then got shut down by a less-than-stellar Colts defense, needing a 32-yard reception in the second half to squeak out double-digit PPR points. The good news is that he played 92 percent of snaps in the second half, rarely leaving the field once Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) joined Jaylen Warren (knee) on the medical list. Warren and Patterson both missed practice Wednesday, setting up Harris for a massive workload against a Dallas defense that's allowed the third most fantasy points to running backs and the second most EPA per carry (0.16). Only the Jets and Falcons have missed more tackles on run plays (31), and no team has allowed more rushing TDs (eight).

D'Andre Swift (vs. CAR) — 64% started

Start Over — Devin Singletary or Tyrone Tracy (at SEA), Zack Moss (vs. BAL), Rachaad White (at ATL)

Swift is always a risk to disappoint, but the ceiling we saw last week is in play this Sunday, with the Bears again favored by more than a field goal in a home game against a team that's allowed a ton of fantasy points to running backs. Only the Bills have been more friendly than the Panthers, whose greatest hits through four weeks include a 17-131-1 rushing line for J.K. Dobbins and 15-80-2 for Chase Brown. That's excellent news for Swift, who took 67 percent of snaps and 77 percent of the RB opportunities en route to 29.5 PPR points in last week's 24-18 win over the Rams.

Other Good Matchups: Jordan Mason (vs. ARZ), Josh Jacobs & Emanuel Wilson (at LAR), Joe Mixon or Cam Akers (vs. BUF), D'Andre Swift (vs. CAR), Trey Sermon (at JAX)

Wide Receivers 👍

Amari Cooper (at WAS) — 75% started

Start Over — Zay Flowers (at CIN), DJ Moore (vs. CAR), Brandon Aiyuk (vs. ARZ)

Cooper has been mega-frustrating for fantasy managers, scoring 64 percent of his points in one game despite drawing at least eight targets in each contest. Last week was especially frustrating, with an ugly drop that turned into an interception and then an 82-yard TD wiped out a questionable holding penalty. Drop statistics vary wildly from site to site, but profootballreference.com has Cooper with more drops in 2024 (eight) than he had in five of the previous six seasons. The good news this week is that he can probably afford to drop a pass or two and still put up a strong stat line, facing a Washington defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and the second most to quarterbacks.

Christian Kirk (vs. IND) — 47% started

Start Over — Rashid Shaheed (at KC), Xavier Worthy (vs. NO), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. NYG)

Kirk saw just seven targets over the first two weeks and dropped two of them, but he's since rebounded strong while re-asserting himself ahead of Gabe Davis, recording double-digit targets and 15-plus PPR points in back-to-back games. Kirk now leads the Jaguars in target share (24 percent) and air yard share (30 percent), ahead of both Brian Thomas (21% TS, 27% AYS) and Davis (18% TS, 24% AYS). The Colts, meanwhile, have given up the seventh most fantasy points to wide receivers, and it looks like they may be without standout slot man Kenny Moore (hip) for a second straight week. That's especially good news for Kirk, whose 135 slot snaps are second most in the league and account for 76 percent of his playing time overall. Thomas is also a solid WR3 start this week, while Davis looks like more of a WR4/5 with his volume trending in the wrong direction.

Other Good Matchups: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk & Jauan Jennings (vs. ARZ), Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks & Romeo Doubs (at LAR), George Pickens (vs. DAL), Michael Pittman & Josh Downs (at JAX), Brian Thomas (vs. IND), Courtland Sutton (vs. LV), Jerry Jeudy (at WAS), Jordan Whittington & Tutu Atwell (vs. GB), Darnell Mooney (vs. TB)

Lots of WRs <25% started on Yahoo that I wouldn't mind starting this week
IND Josh Downs (if Flacco starts)
LAR Whittington & Atwell
NYG Wan'Dale
TB Mooney
CLE Jeudy
GB Doubs
BUF Coleman (if Shakir out)
Also don't mind Tucker, Wilson, Gabe Davis, Dortch, Bateman
— jerry donabedian (@Rotocats) October 3, 2024

Tight Ends 👍

Pat Freiermuth (vs. DAL) — 43% started

Start Over — Mark Andrews (at CIN), Kyle Pitts (vs. TB), Cole Kmet (vs. CAR)

Freiermuth is the only tight end with at least four targets every week this season, although Jake Ferguson and George Kittle have done it in each game they've played (and are two of the only TEs I'd start over Mooth this week). Freiermuth is fifth at the position in PPR points, eighth in targets (20) and fifth in team target share (19.4 percent), having rapidly emerged as the No. 2 pass-game option for Arthur Smith and Justin Fields. This should be another good week for Fields and his receivers, as the Cowboys lost their top two pass rushers to major injuries during last week's win over the Giants.... and that's after top backup Sam Williams suffered an ACL tear last summer. The Steelers, meanwhile, look to be without their Nos. 2 and 3 RBs, which means the offense could be heavily concentrated toward Harris, Freiermuth and George Pickens.

Other Good Matchups: Cole Kmet (vs. CAR), Tucker Kraft (at LAR), Cade Otton (at ATL), Colby Parkinson (vs. GB)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Patrick Mahomes (vs. NO) — 84% started

Start Instead — Joe Burrow (vs. BAL), Jayden Daniels (vs. CLE), Jordan Love (at LAR)

Mahomes is always capable of individual brilliance but should nonetheless be ranked as a back-end QB1 this week. He won't have his top receiver, Rashee Rice, who accounted for 34.5 percent of Kansas City's targets and 43.7 percent of the receiving yards prior to Week 4. The Saints defense may also be missing some key players, namely LB Demario Davis (hamstring) and S Tyrann Mathieu (calf), but they've continued to play well amid injuries this year, yielding just one combined touchdown to Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins the past three weeks.

Other Tough Matchups: Kyler Murray (at SF), Dak Prescott (at PIT), Derek Carr (at KC), Sam Darnold (vs. NYJ), Andy Dalton (at CHI), Gardner Minshew (at DEN)

Running Backs 👎

Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. MIA) — 72% started

Start Instead — D'Andre Swift (vs. CAR), Chuba Hubbard (at CHI), Zack Moss (vs. BAL)

Miami has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to running backs, but that's a product of touchdowns and negative game script rather than poor work at preventing yardage. The Dolphins are 11th in YPC allowed (4.1) and seventh in EPA per carry (-0.14), and they shouldn't get blown out of the water in this Week 5 matchup with the equally struggling Patriots. There's also some concern about Stevenson's role after he fumbled in each of New England's first four games, with coach Jerod Mayo acknowledging Wednesday that he's thinking about starting Antonio Gibson instead of Stevenson this week.

Kareem Hunt (vs. NO) — 40% started

Start Instead — Javonte Williams (vs. LV), Jerome Ford (at WAS), Trey Sermon (at JAX)

Hunt's Week 4 role/usage was similar to Carson Steele's in the previous game — a bit worse, actually, as Hunt barely got more snaps (43%) than Samaje Perine (41%) — and now we have a potential return for Clyde Edwards-Helaire further complicating the Kansas City backfield. Hunt is certainly the favorite to take the most carries this week, but that might only amount to 8-12 totes, and likely without much playing time on passing downs while facing a solid New Orleans defense.

Other Tough Matchups: Breece Hall & Braelon Allen (at MIN), Rico Dowdle (at PIT), Zamir White & Alexander Mattison (at DEN), Zack Moss & Chase Brown (vs. BAL)

Wide Receivers 👎

Tank Dell (vs. BUF) — 22% started

Start Instead — Courtland Sutton (vs. LV), Dontayvion Wicks (at LAR), Jordan Addison (vs. NYJ)

Dell returned to practice Wednesday and should play Sunday after missing one game with bruised ribs, but he'll be facing a strong secondary and is clearly just Option C in Houston's passing attack. He's been targeted on 16.5 percent of routes this season, down from 24.5 percent last year, and his aDOT is also down a good bit, from 14.3 to 11.2. Dell will improve his current mark of 5.8 YPT as the season progresses, but even when that happens he might only average 40-50 yards per game due to a lack of volume. For the immediate future, it doesn't help that his Week 5 opponent has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including just two performances of double-digit PPR points and none above 15.9 (Kirk in Week 3).

Jakobi Meyers (at DEN) — 21% started

Start Instead — Josh Downs (at JAX), Wan'Dale Robinson (at SEA), Jerry Jeudy (at WAS)

I'm generally optimistic about Meyers' fantasy prospects with Davante Adams injured and then possibly traded, but this Sunday it could mean shadow coverage from CB Patrick Surtain in a game with the lowest over/under (35.5) of Week 5. The Broncos have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to WRs, in large part because Surtain helped limit DK Metcalf to 3-20-0, George Pickens to 2-29-0, Mike Evans to 2-17-0 and Garrett Wilson to 5-41-0. Second-year cornerback Riley Moss is also playing well for the Broncos, so it's not like Meyers will have a cupcake individual matchup even if he avoids the Surtain shadow treatment.

Other Tough Matchups: Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed (at KC), Diontae Johnson & Xavier Legette (at CHI), Jordan Addison (vs. NYJ), Jakobi Meyers & Tre Tucker (at DEN)

Tight Ends 👎

Mark Andrews (at CIN) — 59% started

Start Instead — Cole Kmet (vs. CAR), Tucker Kraft (at LAR), Dalton Schultz (vs. BUF)

Andrews will eventually have a get-right/squeaky-wheel game in which the Ravens draw up a bunch of plays to feed him a handful of targets and get his first touchdowns. It isn't likely to be this week, however, as the Bengals have mostly struggled on defense but done a nice job protecting the middle of the field, thanks to rangy linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt (and to a lesser extent, veteran safeties Geno Smith and Vonn Bell). Cincinnati has allowed only 119 yards on passes to the middle third of the field, facing the second fewest attempts (25) while yielding a league-low 4.8 yards per attempt. Andrews has bigger problems, of course, coming off back-to-back games in which he saw exactly one target and fell below 50 percent for both snap share and route share. I even dropped him in a 10-team league this week, picking up Freiermuth instead.