Exploiting the Matchups: Week 17 Start/Sit

Good luck this week to everyone with Super Bowl matchups! There's no shortage of injury and virus-related questions to sort through, but it does appear at least slightly less chaotic than last week, and the lack of a TNF game gives us more time before any lineup decisions need to be made.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

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Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts (at WAS)

56% started

Hurts had his third-best fantasy game of the season Week 15 against Washington, with 296 passing yards and two rushing TDs in a 27-17 win. He only has 10 rush attempts (including those two TDs) in his two games since returning from an ankle injury, but he'll be fine doing most of his damage through the air against a team that's dead last in fantasy points allowed to QBs. While the Eagles have relied on their rushing attack in the second half of the season, Hurts' right arm could be the key this week with Miles Sanders (hand) already ruled out and Jordan Howard (stinger) uncertain.

• Honorable Mentions: Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN; Taysom Hill, NO vs. CAR

Running Backs

Devin Singletary (vs. ATL)

51% started

Zack Moss rejoined the mix last week with four touches on 33 percent of snaps, but it didn't make much difference for Singletary, who finished with 12-39-1 rushing and 5-39-0 on six targets (68 percent snap share) in the 33-21 win over New England. It was Singletary's third straight game with more than 75 total yards and two-thirds of offensive snaps, and his PPR scores have bumped up each week from 14.9 to 16.6 to 18.8. While he won't necessarily continue that trend, he should at least reach double-digits again with the Bills favored by 14.5 over a Falcons team that's given up the ninth most fantasy points to RBs.

Boston Scott (at WAS)

4% started

Scott's landing spot in Week 17 rankings remains up in the air, to a degree, with Miles Sanders confirmed to be out but Jordan Howard (stinger) hoping to play. The good news is that Scott could still get around half of Philly's RB carries even if Howard suits up, as was the case Weeks 8-10 when Sanders was out with an ankle injury. During that stretch, Howard took  41 carries for 211 yards and three touchdowns, with Scott adding 33 for 181 yards and two TDs (plus two catches for 24 yards on three targets). Rookie Kenneth Gainwell should also have a role, especially on passing downs, but Scott looks like an RB2 if Howard is out, or a solid RB3/FLEX if his teammate plays.

• Honorable Mentions: Ronald Jones, TB at NYJ; Rashaad Penny, SEA vs. DET; Elijah Mitchell and/or Jeff Wilson, SF vs. HOU; Ameer Abdullah, CAR at NO

Wide Receivers

Jaylen Waddle (at TEN)

60% started

Waddle has three straight games with double-digit targets, nine or more catches and 90 or more yards, albeit with a bye and a COVID-19 absence mixed in during that stretch. He's also been remarkably consistent for a rookie, with Week 7 against Buffalo being the last time he fell shy of double-digit PPR points. Facing a Titans defense that's given up the second most points to wide receivers, Waddle is safely a top-20 play at the position this week, and arguably knocking on the top-10 door. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Allen Lazard (vs. MIN)

14% & 13% started

MVS has seen more targets when both he and Lazard have been available, though Valdes-Scantling's biggest game of the year came when Lazard was out for the Week 11 matchup with these very same Vikings (4-123-1 on 10 targets). No team has allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers this year, and volume shouldn't be a problem for the Green Bay passing game with Aaron Rodgers gunning for an MVP award. Davante Adams will of course account for a huge share of that volume, but with minimal talent at tight end and poor depth at wide receiver, there's still room for both MVS and Lazard to see a handful of targets or more. 

Note: Valdes-Scantling was activated from the COVID-19 list Wednesday and wasn't listed on Thursday's injury report. We'll still want to keep an eye out for any possible news about his stamina being affected or his role being scaled back. But it's a good sign he practiced fully Thursday and isn't listed on the injury report.

• Honorable Mentions: Antonio Brown, TB at NYJ; Odell Beckham & Van Jefferson, LAR at BAL; DeVonta Smith & Quez Watkins, PHI at WAS; Kendrick Bourne, NE vs. JAX

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee (at BAL)

44% started

It's been a long time since Higbee did much of anything, in part because he missed two games on the COVID-19 list (Weeks 14-15) and in part because he rarely sees more than 5-6 targets. He's nonetheless averaging a respectable 5.3 looks per game for the season, and a handful should be enough to get the job done this week against a Baltimore secondary that had trouble with tight ends even before the injury bug bit. The Ravens still have a solid front seven that at least gives them some hope (however slim) of slowing down the Rams, but all of the L.A. pass catchers should be able to get open if they have time to operate.

• Honorable Mentions: Hunter Henry, NE vs. JAX; Gerald Everett, SEA vs. DET; Foster Moreau, LV at IND; Mo Alie-Cox, IND vs. LV

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Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (at LAR)

40% started

It's been a few years since we listed Jackson in this article, as the running ability typically keeps him as a mid-range QB1 even in bottom-five matchups. The issue this week, more so than the matchup, is that Jackson will be far from 100 percent if he plays, and thus less likely to pile up rushing stats. The ankle injury may also impact his passing, a potential issue in the first place given Jackson's second-half slump combined with the matchup against a Rams defense that's allowing the seventh fewest points to QBs. It all makes Jackson more of a back-end QB1 or high-end QB2 if he suits up, which isn't too far ahead of where Tyler Huntley should be ranked if he gets the nod.

• Honorable Mentions: Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. MIA; Matt Ryan, ATL at BUF; Trevor Lawrence, JAX at NE: Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs. PHI

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley (at CHI)

79% started

I actually dropped Barkley in one league, figuring at least one of Darrel Williams, Boston Scott or Duke Johnson would end up being a better play. Truth is, I want absolutely nothing to do with the Giants offense, including Barkley now that he's closing out the season in a timeshare with Devontae Booker (less than 60 percent of snaps in three straight games). 

The Giants have an implied total of 15.5 this week, traveling to Chicago to face a Bears defense that'll be relatively healthy if Akiem Hicks makes it back from the reserve/COVID-19 list. Rashaad Penny got the best of the Bears last week, but they've generally played better defense since dealing with a rash of injuries midseason.

Cordarrelle Patterson (at BUF)

82% started

Patterson is another auto-start-in-question, going cold at the worst possible time and now facing one of his toughest matchups of the season. He's sitting on back-to-back games with single-digit PPR points and four in a row below 15, with the inconsistent volume catching up to him now that his efficiency has dipped and the Atlanta offense is slumping overall. Patterson does still get goal-line carries, but there probably won't be many this week given Atlanta's measly implied total of 14.75. It's now been nearly three months since C-Patt drew more than 5-6 targets in a game, and he has only 64 receiving yards total over the past six weeks.

• Honorable Mentions: James Conner, ARZ at DAL; Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NO; Mike Davis, ATL at BUF; Tevin Coleman, NYJ vs. TB

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown (vs. LAR)

56% started

It's hard to pull the trigger on benching Brown when he's still seeing plenty of targets each week and is less than two months removed from a stretch of big-time production. His recent receiving lines (5-44-0, 10-43-0, 5-41-0, 5-55-0, 8-51-0, 6-37-0) all would be fine if we added one long gain... but that big play hasn't happened even once since Week 7. Part of it seems to be opponents playing more off-coverage and yielding short areas to the undersized Brown, and part seems to be Baltimore's shift toward quicker/shorter passes (related to Jackson's injury). 

Whatever the case, Hollywood is 0-for-7 on targets 20-plus yards downfield over his past six games, after catching 5-of-20 (including four TDs) in his first eight, per PFF. A matchup with the Rams doesn't help, nor does the QB situation with either a limited Jackson or Tyler Huntley under center. Put it all together and Hollywood looks more WR3/4 than WR2 for fantasy Super Bowl week.

Mike Williams (vs. DEN)

28% started

Williams has been similar to Hollywood in a lot of ways, and with more of a volume drop-off as the season has progressed (but less of a decline in efficiency stats). This week, Williams is coming back from a missed game due to COVID-19 and likely will spend most of the afternoon lined up across from CBs Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby. Those two have helped Denver allow the eighth fewest points to wide receivers, including limiting Williams to a 4-39-0 receiving line Week 12.

• Honorable Mentions: Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. PHI; D.J. Moore, CAR at NO; Hunter Renfrow, LV at IND; Russell Gage, ATL at BUF; A.J. Green, ARZ at DAL

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki (at TEN)

46% started

Unlike Miami's wideouts (and the offense as a whole), Gesicki actually fared better with Jacoby Brissett under center, accounting for 19.9 percent of the backup's targets. That drops to 18.3 percent with Tua Tagovailoa, and Gesicki hasn't gone any higher than 50 yards since the Dolphins got their starting QB back in the lineup Week 11.

 Plus, while Tennessee's pass defense is beatable, most opponents find success throwing at the cornerbacks, rather than using tight ends to challenge the middle of the field where the Titans have safeties Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker. Only four teams have allowed fewer points to tight ends, with notable stat lines including 2-21-0 for George Kittle last week and 7-65-0 from Travis Kelce in Week 7. The yardage from Kelce was the most the Titans have allowed to any TE this year, and it took him 12 targets to get there. Don't be surprised if Sometimes-Killer Mike lays another egg this week.

• Honorable Mentions: Kyle Pitts, ATL at BUF; Evan Engram, NYG at CHI

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (40-66 percent rostered)

QB Taysom Hill (vs. CAR)

RB D'Onta Foreman (vs. MIA)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. JAX)

WR DeVante Parker (at TEN)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. MIN)

WR K.J. Osborn (at GB)

TE Pat Friermuth (vs. CLE0

K Robbie Gould (vs. HOU)

D/ST Chicago Bears (vs. NYG)

For Medium-depth Leagues (15-39 percent rostered)

QB Mac Jones (vs. JAX)

QB Trey Lance (vs. HOU)

RB Boston Scott (at WAS)

RB Jordan Howard (at WAS) - if he plays

RB Rex Burkhead (at SF)

WR Allen Lazard (vs. MIN)

WR Kendrick Bourne (vs. JAX)

WR Rashod Bateman (vs. LAR)

TE Cole Kmet (vs. NYG)

TE Foster Moreau (at IND)

K Mason Crosby (vs. MIN)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers (at CLE)

For Deep Leagues (under 15 percent rostered)

QB Tyler Huntley (vs. LAR)

QB Drew Lock (at LAC)

RB Ameer Abdullah (at NO)

RB D'Ernest Johnson (at PIT)

RB Kenneth Gainwell (at WAS) - if Howard is out

RB Derrick Gore (at CIN)

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (at PIT)

WR Tyler Johnson (at NYJ)

TE Mo Alie-Cox (vs. LV)

K Jason Sanders (at TEN)

D/ST Giants (at CHI)