Exploiting the Matchups: Week 10 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

I expected the player pool to look thinner this week with three of the league's top offenses (PHI, MIA, KC) and Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all going on bye. But it doesn't feel that bad, perhaps in part because the Chiefs offense hasn't actually been that good this season (23.1 ppg, 12th) and three of the teams coming back from byes (DET, JAX, SF) arguably have provided us with more fantasy value.

It also looks like we have two starting RBs coming back from long-term absences, with Detroit's David Montgomery (ribs) a full practice participant Wednesday and Arizona's James Conner (knee) designated to return from injured reserve. A matchup with the lousy Chargers defense allows us to start both Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs with a reasonable degree of confidence, and Conner's likely return coinciding with Kyler Murray's helps the chances for an immediate return to productivity.

The flip side of the coin is that we're likely to see some ugly QB play, yet again. The Week 10 slate features battles between Aidan O'Connell and Zach Wilson, Tyson Bagent and Bryce Young, Jordan Love and Kenny Pickett, Gardner Minshew and Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield and Will Levis, Derek Carr and Joshua Dobbs, etc. Six of 14 games have over/unders below 40, which isn't exactly rare these days but was extremely rare as recently as last September.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Geno Smith (vs. WAS) — 36% started

Start Over — Sam Howell (at SEA), Derek Carr (at MIN), Joshua Dobbs (vs. NO)

Smith has just one game of 17-plus fantasy points this year, falling somewhere between the guy we saw last year and the scrub who struggled for the Jets a decade ago. Nearly all his rate stats are down besides sacks (6.6 percent), but he should find his groove for at least one week against a Commanders defense that's given up the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and just traded away its two best edge rushers last week. Of all teams, Washington is among the least-equipped to take advantage of a struggling Seattle offensive line.

• Other Good Matchups: Justin Herbert (vs. DET), Jared Goff (at LAC), Taylor Heinicke (at ARI), Tyson Bagent (vs. CAR)

Running Backs 👍

• Chuba Hubbard (at CHI) — 44% started

Start Over — Jerome Ford or Kareem Hunt (at BAL), Jaylen Warren (vs. GB), Brian Robinson (at SEA)

The Bears surprisingly have allowed a league-low 3.3 YPC, but no team has allowed more receiving yards (578), TD catches (five) or YPT (8.3) to running backs. The more important point, perhaps, is that Hubbard is coming off three straight games with at least 17 touches and 65 percent snap share and now has one of his better chances to be in a game where the Panthers aren't getting their butts kicked. There is always the chance of Miles Sanders being reintroduced at some point, though he hasn't done much to earn at and saw less than half of Hubbard's snap/touch counts the past two weeks.

• Zach Charbonnet — 7% started

Start Over — AJ Dillon (at PIT), Justice Hill (vs. CLE), Antonio Gibson (at SEA)

Charbonnet has a few different paths to a useful stat line this week, though it'd be his first so far in the NFL. The first and most obvious route is if Kenneth Walker (chest) ends up inactive due to the injury that held him out of Wednesday's practice. The second is if Charbonnet takes over the lead role, or at least a much larger share of the workload, after taking more snaps than Walker in both of the past two games. 

Last (and perhaps least) is the possibility of Charbonnet putting up numbers in a secondary role, combining his passing-down role with some carries to give Walker a breather and perhaps some extra touches if the Seahawks jump out to a big lead. The Commanders have a sketchy defense with minimal talent on the edges post-trade-deadline, and their pass-heavy offense can lead to some high-volume games on both sides when Sam Howell throws a lot of incompletions and/or commits turnovers. If nothing else, Charbonnet needs to be rostered in every format, even if Walker's injury turns out to extremely minor. The rookie's increased playing time of late — albeit mostly on pass plays — suggests there's at least some level of frustration/dissatisfaction with the slumping Walker.

• Other Good Matchups: Tony Pollard (vs. NYG), Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (at ARI), Khalil Herbert & D'Onta Foreman (vs. CAR), Latavius Murray (vs. DEN)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Tank Dell (at CIN) — 33% started

Start Over — Michael Thomas (at MIN), Jahan Dotson (at SEA), Zay Flowers (vs. CLE)

Dell won't sneak up on anyone after what happened last week, but that doesn't mean the Bengals will be able to slow him down, as their solid DvP stats against wide receivers are mostly based on a lack of touchdowns (five) rather than strong play from the defensive backs. None of Cincy's secondary starters hold a top-50 PFF grade at his position, and only six teams have allowed more yards per target (8.66) on passes intended for wide receivers. Dell led the Texans with 84 percent route share last week and tied for the team lead in targets (11) en route to a 6-114-2 with a game-winning touchdown, and he could be headed for a similar workload with Robert Woods (foot) still not practicing and Nico Collins (calf) now on the injury report as well.

• Khalil Shakir (vs. DEN) — 7% started

Start Over — Elijah Moore (at BAL), Romeo Doubs (at PIT), Rashid Shaheed (at MIN)

This admittedly is more of a deep-league play, with Shakir still available on waivers in most shallow/medium formats. I'm not sure he should be available, however, after catching 10 passes for 149 yards the past two weeks. He only saw 10 targets, to be fair, but the efficiency might eventually lead to him being more emphasized in the offense, with Shakir now having caught 16 consecutive targets dating back to Week 5. He should see a handful of looks this weekend, as he's been running routes on around three-fourths of dropbacks since TE Dawson Knox (wrist) went on injured reserve and the Bills drastically increased their usage of 11 personnel. There's also the Patrick Surtain factor, with Denver's top corner likely to shadow Stefon Diggs for a chunk of the game and leave Shakir and Gabe Davis with the relative matchup advantage.

• Other Good Matchups: Tee Higgins (vs. HOU), Amon-Ra St. Brown & Josh Reynolds (at LAC), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. TB), Adam Thielen (at CHI), DK Metcalf (vs. WAS), Mike Evans (vs. TEN), Demario Douglas (vs. IND)

Tight Ends 👍

• Sam LaPorta (at LAC) — 58% started

Start Over — Dalton Kincaid (vs. DEN), George Kittle (at JAX)

LaPorta is a true rarity, quickly emerging as not only one of the most productive tight ends in the league but also one of the most consistent. He's registered at least three passes and 36 yards in every game, and he averaged 13.6 PPR points in five October appearances despite dealing with a calf injury for most of the month. LaPorta is off the injury report after a bye week and set to face a Chargers defense that's allowed the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends while playing in a game with the largest over/under (48.5) on the slate. With Travis Kelce on bye and T.J. Hockenson (rib) banged up, there's an argument for putting LaPorta as high as TE2 overall this week. Even if you rank him somewhat lower, this is the perfect week to FLEX him and start two tight ends.

• Other Good Matchups: Dalton Schultz (at CIN), Jake Ferguson (vs. NYG), Hunter Henry (vs. IND)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Brock Purdy (at JAX) — 35% started

Start Instead — Geno Smith (vs. WAS), Jared Goff (at LAC)

Purdy threw five interceptions in his final three games before the Week 9 bye, all losses, and now heads on the road to face one of four defenses in the league that has more takeaways than touchdowns allowed. Getting Deebo Samuel (shoulder) back in the lineup obviously helps, but LT Trent Williams (ankle) arguably was the bigger loss and still wasn't practicing as of Wednesday. 

The Jaguars, meanwhile, had all 11 defensive starters present for Wednesday's practice, albeit with CB Tyson Campbell and S Andre Cisco limited by hamstring injuries. Don't assume the Niners will have everything figured out after their bye; the Jaguars also are coming off a rest week, and in their case it was preceded by a five-game winning streak.

• Other Tough Matchups: Kyler Murray (vs. ATL), Deshaun Watson (at BAL), Jordan Love (at PIT), Aidan O'Connell (vs. NYJ), Joshua Dobbs (vs. NO)

Running Backs 👎

• Gus Edwards (vs. CLE) — 55% started

Start Instead — Alexander Mattison (vs. NO), Chuba Hubbard (at CHI)

I discussed the Ravens backfield earlier this week in Box Score Breakdown and Backfield Breakdown. The short version is that we don't really know how work will be split, with Edwards having dropped off a cliff to 19 percent snap share last week after seven straight games at 43 percent or higher. He also had a season-low five carries, albeit for 55 yards and two touchdowns, while Justice Hill easily played the most snaps (64 percent) and Keaton Mitchell had by far the most rushing yards (9-138-1). 

It's even weirder because garbage time in a blowout win didn't really impact things; Hill got the most snaps through three quarters (54 percent) and then also took 90 percent in the fourth. We're left with near-impossible workload projections for each of Baltimore's three RBs, and the cumulative production figures to dip considerably against one of the few defenses that has a claim on being as good as the Ravens'.

• Zack Moss (at NE) — 26% started

Start Instead — Tyler Allgeier (at ARI), Antonio Gibson (at SEA), D'Onta Foreman (vs. CAR)

A road matchup with the Patriots, while still not great, is far from the scary proposition it might've been a few years ago. The bigger issue here is that Moss dropped to 21 percent snap share and seven touches in Sunday's win over the Panthers, after taking at least 12 touches for 59 yards in each of his previous seven games this year. Jonathan Taylor's return to a workhorse role means Moss can only be started in the deepest of leagues, and even there he's a shaky proposition against a Patriots team that at least still does one thing well (opponent YPC of 3.5, second best in the league).

• Other Tough Matchups: Saquon Barkley (at DAL), Derrick Henry (at TB), Alvin Kamara (at MIN), Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (at BAL)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Jordan Addison (vs. NO) — 65% started

Start Instead — Diontae Johnson (vs. GB), Calvin Ridley (vs. SF)

While Addison's recent volume and performance dictate starting him in deep/medium leagues, he can be benched this week in shallow formats or on teams that are stacked at wide receiver. New Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs is no gunslinger; he ranks 30th out of 32 qualified passers in yards per attempt (5.8) and 29th in yards per completion (9.2), with his limited success this season mostly due to accurate short passing and rushing contributions.

There are worse backups to be stuck with, for sure, but Dobbs isn't likely to repeat last week's success against a Saints defense that ranks fifth in NY/A (5.4) and has as many interceptions (12) as TD passes allowed (12). It's also a tough individual matchup for Addison, considering he's been playing about three-fourth of his snaps on the perimeter where the Saints have CBs Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo playing at a high level. The Saints rank fourth in YPT allowed to wide receivers (6.95) and seventh in completion rate allowed (59.5 percent).

• Jakobi Meyers (vs. NYJ) — 50% started

Start Instead — Tank Dell (at CIN), Christian Kirk (vs. SF) 

The Jets sport arguably the best CB group in the league and have allowed fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team. No defense has faced fewer targets to WRs (19), and only two have better marks for YPT allowed (6.82). That spells trouble for Meyers, who saw just six targets the past two games and only put up a decent stat line last week with the help of a 17-yard rushing TD. This Jets-Raiders game figures to be low-scoring and feature heavy doses of Josh Jacobs and Breece Hall.

• Other Tough Matchups: Davante Adams (vs. NYJ), Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore & Cedric Tillman (at BAL), Terry McLaurin & Jahan Dotson (at SEA)

Tight Ends 👎 

• David Njoku (at BAL) — 49% started

Start Instead — Cole Kmet (vs. CAR), Trey McBride (vs. ATL), Jonnu Smith (at ARI)

Even if the knee injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday turns out to be nothing, Njoku isn't in a good spot to continue his three-game streak with double-digit PPR points or two-game streak scoring a touchdown. The Ravens have an elite defense by any measure, arguably the best in the league, and they're especially formidable over the middle thanks to LBs Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen and safeties Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams. 

Only three teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to TEs, and that's after Trey McBride threw up a garbage-time-fueled 10-95-1 receiving line a couple weeks ago. No other TE has scored against the Ravens this year, and LaPorta is the only other to reach 50 yards. Baltimore, San Francisco and Cleveland are the three teams that have held opposing TEs to under 6.0 YPT.

• Other Tough Matchups: Evan Engram (vs. SF), Luke Musgrave (at PIT)

Week 6 Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Baker Mayfield (vs. TEN)

RB Devin Singletary (at CIN)

RB Zach Charbonnet (vs. WAS)

RB D'Onta Foreman (vs. CAR)

WR Demario Douglas (vs. IND)

WR Rashid Shaheed (at MIN)

TE Trey McBride (vs. ATL)

TE Jonnu Smith (at ARI)

K Riley Patterson (at LAC)

D/ST Seattle Seahawks (vs. WAS)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Taylor Heinicke (at ARI)

RB Justice Hill (vs. CLE)

RB Jaleel McLaughlin (at BUF)

WR Josh Reynolds (at LAC)

WR Odell Beckham (vs. CLE)

TE Luke Musgrave (at PIT)

TE Cade Otton (vs. TEN)

K Blake Grupe (at MIN)

D/ST Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. TEN)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Tyson Bagent (vs. CAR)

RB Latavius Murray (vs. DEN)

RB Rico Dowdle (vs NYG)

WR Khalil Shakir (vs. DEN)

WR Darnell Mooney (vs. CAR)

WR Noah Brown (at CIN)

WR Jonathan Mingo (at CHI)

WR Brandon Powell (vs. NO)

TE Juwan Johnson (at MIN)

TE Mike Gesicki (vs. IND)

K Greg Joseph (vs. NO)

D/ST Tennessee Titans (at TB)