Exploiting the Matchups: Rivers Awaits the Raiders

Two years ago in the introduction to this same article, I wrote before Week 5 about how coaches often break down the season into quarters, just like a game. I think it's good to take that perspective with the fantasy season as well. Whether you're 4-0 or 0-4 you want to re-evaluate what you have seen through a quarter of action and adjust accordingly to increase you're chances of success.

If you've taken injuries (and there've been an awful lot of them), you need to find someone with the ability to step in and produce. When the injury bug hits, volume is the name of the game, so think clear path to touches. That's what you want in your lineup. If you drafted talent that hasn't delivered yet, stay patient and carefully cherry-pick some advantageous matchups to sit that high pick (that's right, we're benching you too, Mr. Golden Tate). Whatever you do, don't throw in the towel just yet. The best of 'em can have bad quarters. By halftime they may have shaken off the rust and made some critical plays for you.

Of course, this week is a tough one to start the second quarter given some of the talent sitting out the first "drive" due to the bye schedule. Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Blake Bortles were all drafted to be starters, so depending on your record and your opponent's lineup, don't be afraid to take a chance with an ideal quarterback matchup if you own any of them. The same applies to the wide receiver position, which is hit hard this week with Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin and Jeremy Maclin all out. For me personally, I own Robinson and Cooks in a keeper league that finds my sad group of underachievers sitting at 1-3 and playing a roster loaded with Tom Brady, Ezekiel Elliott, A.J. Green and Jordy Nelson. With my squad looking very behind the eight ball, I'm rolling out my favorite upside receiver of the week (spoiler alert: you can find him below; his name may rhyme with "boats"). After all, there's nothing wrong with taking a well-timed shot downfield when you're behind big. Gotta kick-start that comeback somehow.

With at least nine weeks to go before hitting fantasy playoffs, there's still plenty of time to make things interesting if you're team had a rough first quarter. The key is to stay active and observant. In today's parity-filled NFL, tides can turn in a blink. We can point right to last year's Lions as a great example. They open the year 1-7, change offensive coordinators and ride high the rest of the year, going 6-2 with Matthew Stafford rocking an eye-popping 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. So maybe there's hope for Tate yet!

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

Quarterback

Carson Wentz, PHI at DET

The Lions have allowed every quarterback they've faced to throw for multiple TDs, and that includes Marcus Mariota (who hasn't thrown one since his game-winner in Detroit in Week 2) and Brian Hoyer in his first start with the Bears. Wentz is coming off a demolition of Pittsburgh, his first bye week and will welcome back arguably his best receiving weapon in Zach Ertz.

Philip Rivers, SD at OAK

It's old hat for Rivers to be producing with a ragtag group of weapons, so despite being without Keenan Allen (knee), Danny Woodhead (knee) and Antonio Gates (hamstring), he'll just keep on churning out 300-yard games. It helps, of course, to play defenses like the Saints and Raiders. This week should be no different than last, as Oakland has allowed a league-worst 325.5 passing yards per game.

Brian Hoyer, CHI at IND

Hoyer has now topped 300 yards and thrown two touchdowns in consecutive games, one of which he didn't even start. Jordan Howard provides a promising threat on the ground to keep Indy's back seven inching towards the line of scrimmage and with weapons like Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller, the well-traveled vet has the tools to make it three straight versus a Colts defense that is routinely overmatched.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ at PIT

Garbage yards do little to impact the outcome of actual football games, but they're gold in fantasy. And this week the much-scrutinized Fitzpatrick could be a beautiful source of them. Every quarterback to face the Steelers has thrown for at least 287 yards, and in the last two contests, Carson Wentz and Alex Smith have also found the end zone twice each. Even in an ugly loss to Seattle last week Fitz managed 261 yards. Here's saying he tops that in Pittsburgh.

Running Back

Terrance West, BAL vs. WAS

John Harbaugh can say all he wants that West has not ascended to a feature back role, but the proof is in the pudding, as they say. West rumbled for 113 yards and a score on 21 carries (5.4 YPC) while Justin Forsett was a healthy scratch before his subsequent release. Kenneth Dixon (knee) is not yet a threat to the job and Javorius Allen saw just three carries to West's 21. Expect another heavy workload against a Redskins defense that has allowed a league-high 532 rushing yards to opposing tailbacks.

Jerick McKinnon, MIN at HOU

The loss of J.J. Watt (back) for this Houston defense cannot be understated, and their struggles without his healthy presence have showed the last two weeks when physical backs LeGarrette Blount and DeMarco Murray wore them down and each hit paydirt twice. Though McKinnon lacks their size, he actually runs with deceptive strength. He showcased that, as well as excellent burst and good vision, versus a Giants defense that had previously held Ezekiel Elliott, Mark Ingram and Matt Jones to a combined 146 yards rushing. Now he'll show the Texans.

Bilal Powell, NYJ at PIT

The Steelers have given up more receiving yards to running backs (318) than any team in the league and are currently allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. While this may seem to favor Matt Forte, it's become apparent since the esteemed vet snagged five of his 11 receptions this year in Week 1 that Powell is the preferred option in obvious passing situations and hurry up. Facing a Steelers offense that can light up the scoreboard in a blink, that makes Powell -- who has at least 70 total yards and six catches in consecutive games -- a sneaky flex, particularly in PPR formats.

Fozzy Whittaker, CAR at TB

This is, more than anything, a PPR alert. Whittaker has piled up 279 scrimmage yards in the last three games as Jonathan Stewart has been sidelined by a hamstring injury, but more than half of those (151 to be exact) have come on 17 receptions. While Cameron Artis-Payne should still handle more of the rushing work, don't be surprised if it's Whittaker who thrives against a Buccaneers defense that's allowing 14.0 yards per catch to opposing tailbacks, good for worst in the league.

Wide Receiver

Sammie Coates, PIT vs. NYJ

Sometimes a matchup just makes too much obvious sense to not take advantage of it. This is definitely one of those times. The Jets have allowed an embarrassing seven receptions of more than 40 yards, including four of which that went for scores, and four that went to secondary receivers. Coates -- who is quietly averaging 70.5 yards per contest and reaping the benefits of playing opposite Antonio Brown and with Ben Roethlisberger -- has utilized his 4.4-speed and strength at the catch point to produce five grabs of more than 40 yards in four games. It's only a matter of time until one of those deep balls takes him into the end zone.

Danny Amendola, NE at CLE

We all know about Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett, but don't forget about Amendola. While the Browns have been awful slowing down tight ends, they've also been generally bad against quick slot weapons. Jordan Matthews and Jarvis Landry each torched them for over 100 yards and a score, and with Tom Brady and the Pats offense likely coming out swinging, Amendola could be one of the big sleepers of the week.

Davante Adams, GB vs. NYG

Adams has scored in two of three games this year and has seen at least seven targets in each of the Packers' two competitive contests. Now he faces a banged-up Giants secondary that has allowed at least 129 yards in consecutive weeks to non-number-one wideouts.

Kenny Stills, MIA vs. TEN

The Titans have allowed at least 80 yards to a wide receiver in every game and have particularly struggled against No. 2 wideouts. Right now, it's unclear who is the second fiddle to Jarvis Landry between Stills and DeVante Parker, but what is apparent is how Miami values Stills' speed. The deep threat has turned in at least 75 yards or a touchdown in three straight games and now gets to attack a Tennessee secondary that struggled with Will Fuller's 4.3 wheels last week.

Eddie Royal, CHI at IND

The Colts have actually been very stingy to wide receivers. The touchdowns the Allen brothers scored for Jacksonville are the first two Indy has given up to the position this year. On Hurns' score, their inability to tackle was clearly highlighted by the catch and weaving run that allowed him to hit paydirt from 40-plus. As it turns out, Royal specializes in the catch-and-run with his elite returner instincts in the open field kicking in. Moreover, targets should be bountiful with Kevin White (leg) headed to IR, and Indy's defense could be a step slow given that this is the first time a team coming off a London game is not following it up with a bye.

Tight End

Zach Ertz, PHI at DET

Four games. Six touchdowns. The Lions simply can't cover tight ends. They've allowed a score to the position in each game and five different tight ends have found the end zone versus their undisciplined back seven. Ertz is set to return after a rib injury cost him two games, and Wentz will be glad to have him. His top tight end saw seven targets in Week 1 and Ertz's replacements have piled up 18 since.

Martellus Bennett, NE at CLE

Bennett has been completely hot and cold without Brady under center. He's either topped 100 yards or failed to reach 15 in every other game so far, but the sheer fact that he hit triple digits once each with quarterbacks not named Brady simply reinforces his status as one of the most gifted athletes playing tight end. Now he gets to feast on a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-most yards in the league to the position (325). Expect the heat to reach a boiling point this week while Rob Gronkowski -- still nursing a hamstring injury -- plays the ultimate decoy.

C.J. Uzomah, CIN at DAL

Desperate times call for desperate measures. If you've relied on Travis Kelce or Jimmy Graham at the tight end position, or drafted Coby Fleener or Julius Thomas, you may be scrambling for a tight end fill-in this week. And, amazingly, Uzomah could solve your problem. He has games of 59 and 45 yards this season and in Tyler Eifert's absence he's third on the team with 22 targets. Against a Dallas defense that's allowed a tight end to reach 70 yards in three straight games, the 6-foot-6 Uzomah could be set up for his best day yet.

DOWNGRADE:

Quarterback

Matt Ryan, ATL at DEN

The true litmus test is here. The woefully-inexperienced Panthers corners are the polar opposites of the studs Denver will throw at the otherworldly Julio Jones. Considering Tevin Coleman may have to sit out because his sickle cell trait condition and the thin Denver air don't mix, that could mean Ryan -- the league's leading passer -- may have his top two receivers considerably limited. And then there's that whole Von Miller issue to deal with (you know, the guy that dominated Cam Newton in Super Bowl 50 and hasn't slowed down since).

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. PHI

Ex-Lions head coach Jim Schwartz must be licking his chops to take his top-ranked scoring defense to Detroit, especially since the Bears just gave him the perfect formula for shutting down a Jim Bob Cooter offense -- drop coverage and pressure with a four-man rush. And as it turns out, Fletcher Cox and friends are pretty darn good at applying the pressure. With Tate in a funk and no ground game, look for Stafford's struggles to continue.

Andrew Luck, IND vs. CHI

Poor Andrew Luck. He's constantly a sitting duck facing waves of pass rushers embarrassing his terrible offensive line while he continues to force the ball to T.Y. Hilton and what looks like the remnants of a CFL receiving corps. It took Luck pulling some rabbits out of his hat to post a respectable statline against Jacksonville, and the Bears -- even as beat up as they are defensively -- will create similar problems for the Colts' star. After all, the Jaguars had as many sacks of Luck (six) as they had in their previous three games.

Running Back

Lamar Miller, HOU vs. MIN

Miller has produced steady yardage each week due to volume, but he's failed to find the end zone despite those 106 touches and has yet to produce a single play of more than 15 yards. While you really can't sit someone that's seen at least 22 touches in every game, it feels like a safe bet that Miller doesn't break his scoring draught against the league's most physical defense.

Theo Riddick, DET vs. PHI

With Ameer Abdullah (foot) on IR, Riddick has had no less than 15 touches per game since Week 1. It hasn't translated to useful fantasy production, of course, as he's averaged a pitiful 2.4 YPC. For anyone out there with a fantasy backfield wrecked by injuries, this is a friendly PSA to remind you Riddick is not the place to turn to this weekend. An Eagles defense that has allowed just 31.3 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs will take away the one thing at which Riddick excels.

Matt Forte, NYJ at PIT

See Powell, Bilal. For the same reasons Powell deserves attention this week, you should be concerned about Forte. The veteran's understudy has stolen exactly 10 touches in consecutive weeks and has been much more involved in the passing game. Facing a Steelers defense that's allowing just 72 rushing yards per game to tailbacks, and with a strong potential for a game flow that dictates passing for the Jets, things are not adding up in Forte's favor this week.

Todd Gurley, LA vs. BUF

Obligatory Gurley downgrade here. The Bills are giving up an average of 3.6 YPC to opposing tailbacks and they've been doing that without the beefy Marcell Dareus, who returns from suspension this week. Gurley is down to 2.6 YPC on the year after a miserable 19-for-33 performance against the Cardinals, by the way.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins & Will Fuller, HOU vs. MIN

Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Victor Cruz, Kelvin Benjamin and Randall Cobb have combined for 145 yards facing the brutal Minnesota defense and none have topped 50 yards or scored. Beckham and Benjamin, the two stars of that group, posted a combined 23 yards on 10 targets. Hopkins has struggled in general the last two weeks and is losing considerable targets to Fuller, who, as a rookie, may be lost versus the confusing, hard-hitting Vikings secondary. This game could be a mess for a Texans offense that really is not very good -- only five offensive touchdowns in four games.

Stefon Diggs, MIN at HOU

A good chunk of the success Houston has had versus wide receivers can be attributed to the quarterbacks and wideouts they've faced, but it bears noting that they've allowed only one 100-yard day and one touchdown to the position this year. Moreover, the Vikings are getting their ground game going with Jerick McKinnon looking awfully sharp versus the Giants, they're involving playmakers Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson more in the pass game, and Jonathan Joseph is as underrated a lockdown corner as there is in football. Tack on a groin injury and it all adds up to Diggs taking his streak of games being held under 50 yards to three.

Julio Jones, ATL at DEN

Obviously, it's not smart to count out Julio Jones, so you're not benching him. One week he's only chipping in 16 yards versus a miserable Saints defense and its rookie corners. The next he's taking the Panthers' rookie corners to the woodshed for 300 yards and a score in a historic performance. The safe bet, however, is that the Broncos elite corners, playing in the thin Denver air, can hold this extraordinary talent to merely double-digit yardage. After all, they've done just that to Mike Evans, A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton in the last three weeks, each of whom is among the top-10 in receiving yards.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, MIN at HOU

Houston has held a plethora of the game's better tight ends to a combined 92 yards on 12 catches, with no touchdowns. Rudolph is riding a three-game scoring streak into the contest as one of Sam Bradford's best friends, but he may suffer the same fate that Zach Miller, Travis Kelce, Martellus Bennett and Delanie Walker did, none of whom topped 34 yards versus Houston.

Dennis Pitta, BAL vs. WAS

Since topping 100 yards in Week 2, Pitta has totaled just 59 yards the past two games on eight catches. The Redskins -- one of 10 defenses that have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end -- have not even allowed that many yards to a tight end in any game.