This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Buffalo Bills 
-6.5
This is such a homer pick but historically (like the last three seasons) I've been able to read the Bills pretty well. I don't think Ben Roethlisberger has much left in the tank and the pictures of him looking like a mummy this preseason all bandaged up with ice suggests that's true. Having fans back in the stadium improves Buffalo's home advantage and I can see a double-digit win here.
Washington Football Team 
-1.5
This seems like a sucker bet to take the Chargers on the against a very good defense and more specifically, a strong defensive line. Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than anyone Washington put under center they signed some key wide receivers in the offseason and Antonio Gibson's peak years are still in front of him.
L.A. Rams/Chicago Bears Under 46.5 Points
It's tough to see Andy Dalton putting up a bunch of points in this game against an elite defense despite the weapons he has at his disposal. I feel like stand-alone games like this beg the average bettor to take the Over but this game seems to have something like a 28-10 feel to it. Look for Matthew Stafford to have a big game with his new team; he's going to love working with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee.
Player Props
Tyler Boyd Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
Boyd seems to be an afterthought for the Bengals with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins lining up alongside him. However, Boyd is only 26 years old and Joe Burrow, despite some preseason woes, should be ready to take another step forward this season. Boyd has averaged 64.8 receiving yards per game over the last three seasons - even with suspect quarterbacking last season - which points to him hitting the over here. Having Chase and Higgins will help draw away some attention from him.
Trevor Lawrence over 246.5 Passing Yards
I think the Jacksonville wide receivers are extremely underrated. Lawrence looks ready for his first professional start and the Texans had a very bad secondary last season (they did add Terrance Mitchell in the offseason, to be fair). Lawrence had a touchdown to interception ratio of 90:17 in three years at Clemson, which are pretty good numbers.
Raheem Mostert Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
Mostert is an injury risk playing only eight and nine games in two of the last three seasons but when he's healthy and on the field he's production. The 49ers should be a run-heavy offense as they been in the past under Kyle Shanahan and Mostert has averaged over five yards per carry for his career. It helps that the Lions appear they'll be a dumpster fire this season and they allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (134.9) last season.
Player Touchdowns
Elijah Moore +200, Terrace Marshall +250
I think we are going to see some good rookie performances and both of these players stand to make an immediate impact. I like taking both as only one of them needs to score to pay this off. I'd wait as long as possible as Moore's number should only improve as kickoff gets closer. I think this could be a sneaky game fantasy-wise with both players playing with quarterbacks who have upside (Sam Darnold is free of Adam Gase and everyone including Tony Romo loves Zach Wilson). With Jamison Crowder out, I'd check back and see if a yardage prop shows up on Moore and take the over on whatever it is. Also, Marshall's over/under for receiving yards is 36.5, a number he could easily eclipse on one big play.
Jonnu Smith +225, Hunter Henry +230
Even though they're on the same team, I like taking both and only need one of them to score to get a slightly better value than +100. It would make sense to think Xavien Howard will be matched up with Jakobi Meyers and even if isn't, he can't cover both players. Rookie quarterbacks tend to lean on their tight ends and both players are big targets in the red zone. Both players are also capable of making a big play so their value isn't directly linked to getting red-zone targets.
