This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Before we get to individual player picks for Week 16, there are a few key injuries to keep an eye on leading up to Sunday's games:
Due to Indy's quarterback issues, the explosive T.Y. Hilton ($5,800) figures to fly under the radar in Week 16, despite drawing an elite matchup with the Dolphins' pathetic excuse for a secondary (apologies to Reshad Jones). In any case, Hilton already makes for a decent target, and he gets a boost if teammate Donte Moncrief (toe) can't play. That being said, I'll be surprised if Moncrief actually sits, as he went for 5-51-1 while playing through the same injury last week.
Danny Amendola (knee) and Brandon LaFell (foot) are both listed as questionable for a game against the Jets in which the Pats will likely do a ton of throwing. James White ($4,700) and Rob Gronkowski ($7,600) should already be busy, but they could challenge their career-high marks for targets if Amendola and/or LaFell is ruled out. Keshawn Martin ($3,000) is also in the discussion, but I can't recommend a player who I hold in such low regard. Will Martin even be in the NFL in 2016 or 2017?
The Saints offense is an absolute mess for Sunday's excellent home matchup against the Jaguars, with all of Drew Brees (foot), Ben Watson (knee) and Marques Colston (chest) listed as questionable. If Brees plays and the other two don't, Willie Snead ($4,500) becomes an A+, every-lineup play. Backup tight end Josh Hill ($2,500) would also be worth a look, at least in cheap-entry, large-field GPPs.
If Doug Baldwin (questionable-hamstring) can't play against the Rams, his anger might cause earthquakes from Seattle to Miami. After picking through the rubble, Seattle's explosive passing game would be left in the hands of Tyler Lockett ($4,500), Jermaine Kearse ($3,200) and tight end Luke Willson ($2,500). Already a good option, Lockett becomes an every-lineup stud if Baldwin can't suit up. The other two guys would also be strong plays, albeit to a lesser extent.
Quarterback
Cam Newton, CAR (at ATL), $7,500 – The quarterbacks on DraftKings finally seem to be accurately priced, with the exception of my beloved Tyrod Taylor, who may attempt fewer than 20 passes in what figures to be a run-heavy game against the Cowboys. There just isn't much merit in going cheap at quarterback, as all of the rosterable guys with good matchups cost at least $6,500. The cheap signal-callers with favorable matchups are Jameis Winston, Jay Cutler, Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Hasselbeck and Alex Smith; none of whom I have any interest in using. Newton doesn't actually have a good matchup, but he's the highest-scoring quarterback this season and has already topped 30 points on five separate occasions. While a repeat of last week is obviously asking too much, Cam shouldn't have any trouble getting to 20 points.
Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. STL), $7,200 – The St. Louis defense is no longer a unit to be feared on the whole, but All-World defensive tackle Aaron Donald should still make life tough for the injury-marred Seattle running game, which means Wilson could get back to the kind of ridiculous performances (32+ DK points) he had in Weeks 12-14. To be fair, he still put up 26.6 points last week against Cleveland, giving him five straight games with 25+. Even if Doug Baldwin (hamstring) sits, Wilson should have success throwing to the aforementioned trio of Lockett, Kearse and Willson, not to mention all the points he can add with his nimble feet.
Other options:Carson Palmer, ARI (vs. GB), $7,000; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (at BAL), $6,800; Drew Brees, NO (vs. JAX), $6,800; Blake Bortles, JAX (at NO), $6,500
Running Back
David Johnson, ARI (vs. GB), $5,800 – Taking price out of the equation, Johnson is the No. 1 running back in PPR (and arguably non-PPR) leagues this week, drawing consensus top-three rankings even with Andre Ellington (ankle) poised to return. Given that he's priced like a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2, Johnson is a runaway favorite to have the highest ownership percentage (by a wide margin) in all contests. No matter, I want him in pretty much every tournament lineup, as the expected return per dollar is easily the best you'll find at running back. Ellington, assuming he even plays, probably won't be anywhere near full strength and probably won't get more than a handful of touches
Denard Robinson, JAX (at NO), $5,400 – It feels a bit weird to pay more for T.J. Yeldon's (knee) backup than you'd pay for Yeldon himself, but given the matchup and expected workload, I have no problem doing just that. Shoelace played each and every one of Jacksonivlle's 62 offensive snaps in Week 15 against the Falcons, taking 14 carries for 41 yards and adding another 46 yards on eight receptions (16.7 DK points). He now gets to face a New Orleans defense that ranks dead last against running backs, following a week in which the previously dormant Detroit rushing "attack" erupted for 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. It shouldn't even matter that Robinson is a mediocre player, as he's a solid bet for 20+ touches against a dreadful defense.
Other options:Doug Martin, TB (vs. CHI), $6,600; DeAngelo Williams, PIT (at BAL), $6,500; Charcandrick West, KC (vs. CLE), $5,700; James White, NE (vs. NYJ), $4,700; Karlos Williams, BUF (vs. DAL), $4,500; Tim Hightower, NO (vs. JAX), $4,500; Frank Gore, IND (vs. MIA), $4,000;Rashad Jennings, NYG (at MIN), $3,500; Kendall Gaskins, SF (at DET), $3,000
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans, TB (vs. CHI), $7,300 – Whenever Vincent Jackson (knee) is sidelined, it seems that most of his targets just go directly to Evans' hands. Atypical as that may be, the Buccaneers don't actually have a whole lot of choice, as the supporting cast in the receiving corps is all but non-existent. With guys like Donteea Dye and Adam Humphries currently serving as the No. 2 and 3 wide receivers, it's no surprise that Evans has averaged 14.5 targets in the four games he has played without Jackson this season. Evans is the favorite to lead the NFL in Week 16 targets, yet he's only the eighth-most expensive wide receiver on the board.
Martavis Bryant, PIT (at BAL), $5,600 – Bryant and Antonio Brown are clearly both strong plays this week, but while one (A.B.) is priced right around where he should be, the other (Bryant) is at least $1,000 too cheap. And yet, there's no question whatsoever that Brown will be the more popular choice, in large part because many people will be scared not to use him. Brown is a phenomenal talent and should have a great game, but Bryant is still the better bet to provide a favorable return on his price. If Brown goes for something like 8-90-1, it would actually be disappointing at his $9,300 price tag. Even 9-120-1 isn't doing that much for you, especially when so many other people will have him in lineups. Bryant ranks sixth at the position in DK points per game (19.7), yet 23 wide receivers are more expensive – That's value.
Willie Snead, NO (vs. JAX), $4,500 – Good player. Great quarterback. Great matchup. Home game in a dome. Likely shootout. Minimal competition for targets. Underpriced by at least $500. And, if that's not enough, Snead's name is fun to say and his hair is pretty awesome. Arguably more important, he won't be nearly as popular of a selection as he should be, merely because of the lack of name recognition. Bonus advice: Draft Snead in your season-long PPR leagues next year.
Other options:Antonio Brown, PIT (at BAL), $9,300; Julio Jones, ATL (vs. CAR), $8,300; Allen Robinson, JAX (at NO), $7,500; Sammy Watkins, BUF (vs. DAL), $6,700; Jarvis Landry, MIA (vs. IND), $6,400; Jeremy Maclin, KC (vs. CLE), $6,000; Brandin Cooks, NO (vs. JAX), $5,900; T.Y. Hilton, IND (at MIA), $5,800; Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (vs. CIN), $5,800; Kamar Aiken, BAL (vs. PIT), $5,400; John Brown, ARI (vs. GB), $5,100; Tyler Lockett, SEA (vs. STL), $4,500; Anquan Boldin, SF (at DET), $3,700; Rueben Randle, NYG (at MIN), $3,500;
Tight End
Zach Miller, CHI (at TB), $4,000 – What's more fun than a Week 16 game between two non-contending teams with mediocre quarterbacks who only have one legitimate target to throw to? Yup, pretty much anything, but it just so happens that a lot of fun things require money, which you'll probably have more of if you roster Miller and Mike Evans this week. With Martellus Bennett (ribs) out for the season and Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) doubtful for Sunday, Miller is the last man standing for Sunday's matchup with the awful Tampa Bay pass defense. Double-digit targets wouldn't be surprising, and he's actually a pretty good player.
Other options:Rob Gronkowski, NE (at NYJ), $7,600; Greg Olsen, CAR (at ATL), $7,000; Julius Thomas, JAX (at NO), $5,100; Luke Willson, SEA (vs. STL), $2,500
Team Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans (vs. HOU), $2,000 – Sticking with the theme from last week, I'll happily roster a minimum-priced defense that gets to face a Houston team with serious issues on offense even if Brian Hoyer (concussion/ankle) is able to play. Of course, Hoyer doesn't seem especially likely to suit up, meaning the hideous Brandon Weeden will probably be under center. Don't be fooled by his competent cameo last week – Weeden is about as bad as it gets in the world of NFL quarterbacks. Also, the Tennessee defense isn't good, but it's also not as bad as your probably think it is.
Other options: Seattle Seahawks (vs. STL), $4,300; Denver Broncos (vs. CIN), $3,400; Pittsburgh Steelers (at BAL), $3,100; Houston Texans (at TEN), $2,800; Detroit Lions (vs. SF), $2,800; Indianapolis Colts (at MIA), $2,300
