DFS Football 101: By the Numbers - QBs

DFS Football 101: By the Numbers - QBs

This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.

With the NFL season just weeks away, I wanted to go back and look at the 2015 season by the numbers. If you have been following my work here on RotoWire you know that you get two things from me - analytics and game theory.

I'm going to break down each position by the numbers – the highs, lows, cash game, tournament, Vegas strategy etc. This week, we'll look at quarterback.

This is mostly geared toward new players and beginners so they get a feel for what to look at when selecting their quarterbacks, but some of the numbers should be useful for all players.

QUARTERBACK

Average Points - 17.2
Average Salary - $7,350
Salary Range - $4,800-$9,700
Average FanDuel X (Multiplier) - 2.34 (FD Pts / Salary *1000)
Standard Deviation - 7.76

High Score - Drew Brees, 47.5, Week 8 vs Giants
Low Score - Peyton Manning, -2.6 Week 10 vs Chiefs
Top Scorer - Cam Newton, 24.9
Low Scorer - Nick Foles, 9.6 (11 games)

Average Point Per Game

Home - 17.8
Road - 16.7
Home Favorite - 19.0
Road Favorite - 18.2
Home Dog - 15.4
Road Dog - 15.9

There is a clear edge taking quarterbacks who are favored.

Total Range

-7.5 or higher - 20.2
-3.5 to -7 - 18.5
0 to -3 - 18.3
+1 to +3 - 16.6
+3.5 to +7 - 15.9
+7.5 or higher - 13.4

The numbers here also show that quarterbacks with higher point spreads score more points.

Best Cash-Game Plays
(Average points over 17.2 and lowest standard deviation)

Standard deviation is important when determining cash-game players because you want results that are more consistent and predictable. You can calculate SD in Excel using the STD formula similar to SUM or AVG.

Jameis Winston -18.13 PPG/3.88 SD
Carson Palmer - 20.02/5.11
Andrew Luck - 20.41/5.51
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 19.20/6.66
Tyrod Taylor - 19.79/6.67

Best Passing Defenses to Target for Cash Games

Titans - 20.37 PPG/6.29 SD
Jaguars - 20.22/7.51
Bears - 19.83/7.42
Redskins - 18.85/7.20
Bucs - 18.84/7.31

Best Passing Defenses to Target for Tournaments

Saints - 24.53 PPG/7.93 SD
Giants - 21.27/10.07
Browns - 18.58/7.96
Eagles - 20.06/7.89
Ravens - 18.00/9.89

Worst Defenses to Target for Cash Games

Broncos - 13.19 PPG/6.21 SD
Bengals - 13.66/6.39
Cardinals - 14.35/5.68
Falcons - 15.08/5.90
Cowboys - 15.93/5.39

Worst Defenses to Target for Tournaments

Seahawks - 13.73 PPG/7.98 SD
Chiefs - 14.15/9.35
Panthers - 15.17/8.29
Patriots - 15.74/8.47
Texans - 16.30/8.43

Best Tournament Plays
(Average points over 17.2 and highest standard deviation)

Marcus Mariota - 18.37/10.84
Drew Brees - 21.09/9.78
Ben Roethlisberger - 19.58/9.58
Cam Newton - 24.94/8.80
Kirk Cousins - 18.14/8.56

Biggest Home/Road Splits
(QBs with the biggest edge at home)

Drew Brees - 26.30 vs. 15.14
Ben Roethlisberger - 24.65 vs. 15.36
Kirk Cousins - 21.76 vs. 14.02
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 21.33 vs. 16.36
Cam Newton - 26.99 vs. 22.89

Top 10 QB Performances

Only 3 quarterbacks were priced $9,000 or higher
7 quarterbacks were priced $6,700-$7,900
The highest favorite line was -5.5, and the total was 51.5
6 games were at home, 4 were on the road
7 of 10 games took place Week 8 or later
The Giants and Saints were the only defenses to show up more than once

Top 10 Best Value QB Performances

6 of the 10 also were on the Top 10 Performance list
Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota appear twice
7 of 10 games were at home
The salary range was $6,000-$7,900
Chicago is the only defense that appears more than once
The highest favorite was -4.0; and the highest dog was +6.5
The highest total was 51.5, the lowest was 41.5

The takeaway with quarterbacks in daily fantasy football is that you can find value in the lower-to-mid price range. Matchups and Vegas data can play a huge part in finding value for your weekly lineups.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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