This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Week 6
The BetMGM bonus code features a great welcome offer for new customers. And as of Sept. 28, sports betting is live in Kentucky. Football fans in the bluegrass state can get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM Kentucky sports betting promo.
The Detroit Lions continued to add credibility to their status as contenders with a 42-24 win over the Panthers in Week 5. While a victory over a winless team normally wouldn't be anything for a would-be contender to hang its hat on, the fact it came without star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, explosive rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and disruptive rookie safety Brian Branch changes the context to an appreciable degree.
The Buccaneers were off in Week 5 after pushing their record to a surprising 3-1 with an impressive 26-9 road win over the Saints. Tampa Bay has gotten much better play than expected from Baker Mayfield, while the Bucs' defense has been impressive overall and is back to being a force against the run after some surprise regression a year ago.
Lions @ Buccaneers Betting Odds for Week 6
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Lions -160 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Buccaneers +140 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Lions -3 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Buccaneers +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 42 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Under 42.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Buccaneers have been underdogs for the entire history of this game's line, beginning with an opening number of +3.5. The number was whittled down to 2.5 following Tampa Bay's Week 4 win, but that number was eventually bet back up to 3.5 after Detroit's Week 5 win. That figure has come down a half-point going into the weekend, but the Lions remain solid road favorites.
The total has been a bit more consistent in its movement, which has consisted of a steady decline. The number was at a solid 45.5 after Week 4 results, but it was bet down to 43.5 early in the week. However, after a brief bump up to 44, it has notably been bet all the way down to 42 despite the news Friday that both St. Brown and Mike Evans have been cleared from their respective abdomen and hamstring injuries and will therefore suit up.
Lions @ Buccaneers Betting Picks This Week
The Lions have seemingly crossed that line from hopeful – which they qualified as last season after posting a solid 9-8 record – to contender. Detroit is now at a point where talk of being capable of beating anyone is commonplace, the type of talk that a victory over the defending Super Bowl champs to start the season tends to generate.
However, going into this tricky road matchup, there appears to be very good reason for such confidence. Jared Goff is now in complete mastery of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's offense, with the fact he still tossed for four touchdowns in Week 5 without St. Brown and Gibbs available serving as clear evidence of such. Goff now gets St. Brown back and should therefore have a full arsenal of weapons, as the calf injury rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is dealing with isn't expected to keep him sidelined.
On the other side, Baker Mayfield will also have his top target in Evans, as the star receiver was able to work back to a full practice Friday after a hamstring injury forced an early exit from the Week 4 win over the Saints. Meanwhile, Branch has been ruled out for a second straight game due to his ankle issue, while cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who'd just made his season debut in Week 5, tore his ACL for a second straight season.
The depleted defensive backfield should give Mayfield some opportunities for downfield plays, but a Detroit defense that's picked off five passes and recorded 14 sacks still has the potential to cause plenty of disruption. The chances of the Bucs running a balanced offense also appear somewhat slim, as the Lions are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (68.4) and a miserly 3.1 yards per carry to running backs.
Ultimately, I see enough points to be scored here for a surprisingly modest total to be exceeded, and with the Lions having just a bit more all-around talent on offense, I like their chances of winning as road favorites.
Lions at Buccaneers Best Bets: Same-Game Parlay- Lions moneyline and Over 42 points (+211 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
Lions 24, Buccaneers 21
This game has more offensive potential than the betting public seems to believe, especially with St. Brown and Evans back in the fold for their respective squads. Each team can rush the passer enough to disrupt the opposing quarterback and short-circuit some drives, so I don't expect a full offensive breakout. Nevertheless, a tightly contested game in which the slightly better offensive team prevails is very much within the range of outcomes, leading to my prediction.