This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football, Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
The Indianapolis Colts' unusual season continued in Week 8 with a loss to the Texans, and it could prove a season-altering one considering it led to the benching of Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco. That decision has already had an impact on the betting lines, and in a real-world football sense, it arguably leaves Shane Steichen's club in a better position to compete in this challenging inter conference clash.
On the other side, the Vikings have seen a 5-0 start turn into 5-2, but they enter this game with a rest and home field advantage, not to mention a key offensive piece that's set to make his season debut. With plenty of moving parts, let's take a closer look at odds and best bets.
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Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Colts +205 (Caesars)/ Vikings -218 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Colts +5.5 (FanDuel)/ Vikings -5.5 (-105 Bet MGM)
Totals: 46.5 points (Bet MGM)
The spread for this game has seen some interesting movement over the last few days, with the announcement of Flacco as the Colts' starting quarterback, leading some bettors to put some money towards Indianapolis. The number sat at Vikings -7 before Indianapolis' Week 8 loss, but Anthony Richardson's benching spurred a narrowing of that figure to as low -5 at some sportsbooks entering the weekend.
The total has had a tighter range of movement. It sat at 46 points before the Colts' Week 8 contest and got as low as 45 points in the early-to-middle part of the week before bumping back up to 46.5 heading into the weekend.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Betting Picks
Steichen's decision to pull the lever on a quarterback change is significant, considering Richardson's pedigree and the promise he holds. Nevertheless, the Colts' passing game simply isn't functional with the second-year signal-caller leading it at this point.
The timing of the change is interesting for a couple of seemingly contrasting reasons. On the one hand, Flacco could have trouble handling the aggressive pass rush that defensive coordinator Brian Flores frequently dials up. Alternatively, without a viable passing game, it's almost certain Indianapolis would have failed to keep up with a Vikings team at home and with a rest advantage after having played Thursday night in Week 8.
Another reason why the Vikings likely put up even more points than usual is the season debut of T.J. Hockenson, who returns from MCL and ACL tears on Christmas Eve last year Hockenson has practiced throughout most of October and logged a trio of full sessions this week, lending credence to the notion he could be explosive and effective right out of the gate. At minimum, his presence opens up the field further for Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and even the struggling Jordan Addison.
The Colts' numbers against the pass have been solid overall, but Indy has struggled mightily against the run, especially on the road. Indianapolis surrenders an AFC-high 157.3 rushing yards per road game, and although the recent return of DeForest Buckner does help. The Vikings' Aaron Jones-led ground attack averages 134.3 rushing yards per home game. Therefore, a balanced attack that eventually wears Indy down looks in play here.
While Indy will remain competitive with Flacco, I see Minnesota snapping its losing streak with a touchdown victory. Meanwhile, a same-game parlay that backs a somewhat high-scoring game that includes Jones clearing a very reachable threshold is also worth considering.
Best Bets
- Vikings -5 (-110 on DraftKings)
- SGP: Over Alt Total 43.5 points and Aaron Jones 50+ rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
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Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Prediction
Vikings 27, Colts 20
The Colts consistently play better with Flacco at the helm, as he literally boosts the outlook for all of Indianapolis' skill-position players. Nevertheless, Flores has had extra time to game plan and his defense is out for atonement after a rough last two weeks. Meanwhile, the addition of Hockenson to an already potent Vikings offense makes them that much more effective against a defense that struggles at times to stop the run, leading to a Minnesota win.
