This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Chicago Bears at 
Green Bay Packers: NFL Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 18
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Don't let anyone tell you covering OUR Chicago Bears isn't risky to your health. Last week, I was absent from this space because I had my shoulder repaired. "Experts" might say it was from three decades of lifting, a million Little League pitches, and countless football hits and repetitive golf swings, but I know the actual cause: throwing my hands up repeatedly during Bears games. It's OK, I'll let those "experts" have their day while we keep on trucking with the always unpredictable Week 18 finale. I will say, for once, I feel fortunate to cover the Bears as this week's game in Lambeau Field is one of the better and more meaningful games on the slate, where motivation should not be an issue. On that note, kudos to the NFL for filling Week 18's schedule with nothing but divisional games. The NFL schedule comes under fire often, but the good points deserve to be noted as well. Woah ... is this a kinder, gentler me in 2024? Nah...
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Betting Odds for Week 18
Packers -3 / Bears +3
Packers ML -160, Bears ML +140
Total OVER 45 / UNDER 45.5
I feel that this line is right on the money. Under current form, these teams are even in my eyes with a motivated Justin Fields and a vastly improved Chicago D (see: Montez Sweat) taking on a hot but still very young and inconsistent Green Bay team. The early release of this line on New Year's Eve was at 2.5, but within hours, it was up to 3.5. After the hangovers subsided the next morning, it moved back down to 3, where it has settled ever since. The total opened at 43.5 and has steadily risen to hover around 45, likely due to this game involving full motivation and the continued mild weather in the upper Midwest. A January game at Lambeau in above-freezing temps (game time forecast is 36 and partly sunny) is almost unheard of.
Bears at Packers Betting Picks This Week
As much as my inner snark wants to come out – I'm sure it will – this game warrants respect. Green Bay is going for its 10th straight win over its rivals, while the Bears would like nothing more than to end that streak, their season, and the Packers' season by dashing their playoff hopes with a win. Justin Fields is playing some of his best ball when it has mattered most, essentially playing for his job down the stretch as he makes his case as the franchise QB (Chicago holds the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft). From what I hear, the players love Fields and the current staff and a win here could go a long way toward maintaining the continuity they desire. The Packers know their objective: win and they are in. People love to quote Jordan Love's stats as validation that he's the man, but I still don't know if he's a good QB or not. It is weird to say this about Chicago, but the Bears might present the stiffest all-around test Green Bay has seen in months. Rivalry games can be tough to predict, but let's go out with a bang! My Best Bet is calling for the outright upset and taking the Bears ML at +140 and I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a 1/2 unit on the ML and a 1/2 unit on +3 to cover your bases. From a side perspective, I see this as two rivals slugging it out in the middle of the ring for most of the game, so a play on the under is a solid addition as well.
Bears at Packers Best Bet: Bears ML +140 (@ DraftKings)
Bears at Packers Prediction
I've said for years the Packers' best, most valuable weapon is Aaron Jones. When he is healthy and being featured, the Green Bay offense is at its best. After an injury-plagued season, Jones appears healthy now, but the Bears' No. 1 rush defense will be ready to shut him down and force Jordan Love to beat them. Can he do it in the biggest game of his young career? I see Matt LaFleur trying to set Love up for success with safe, short routes. On the other side, Chicago's No. 2 rushing offense will look to punish Green Bay's 28th-ranked rush defense and control the game and clock. As I said above, this game screams rivalry slugfest and something like a 10-3 score at half. With the game close, the game plans will remain conservative well into the third quarter, but with Chicago up 16-6 heading into the fourth, the Packers will be forced to open it up. The punishing pass rush from Chicago won't relent and will ultimately seal a 19-14 victory in Green Bay, snapping the losing streak and keeping the Packers home for the playoffs.
