This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday NFL Football, Week 18
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Week 18 and the 2023 NFL season come to a close with a prime-time AFC East divisional matchup between the Buffalo Bills (10-6) and the Miami Dolphins (11-5). The winner of this game will be the AFC East champion. The Dolphins are in the playoffs regardless, but the Bills will need help if they lose.
Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds for Week 18 Sunday NFL Football
Bills: Spread (+2.5) -120, Moneyline -155; Projected Score 25.3 points
Dolphins: Spread (-2.5) +100, Moneyline +130; Projected Score 22.8 points
Game Total: 48.0 points
Totaling bets thus far, 50 percent of the money and 59 percent of the bets are on the Dolphins. There is 52 percent of the money on the Bills' moneyline, which is 70 percent of the bets. There is 93 percent of the money and 95 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key situations to watch
Bills: QB Josh Allen is not listed on the injury report, but is dealing with a neck stinger which could limit his rushing attempts. This has been a huge factor in the Bills' success.
Dolphins: LB Bradley Chubb, CB Xavien Howard (OUT)
QUESTIONABLE: WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert
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Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Picks This Week
Bills vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Josh Allen OVER 0.5 interceptions (FanDuel -130) for 1 unit
Allen has thrown an interception in every game except for two. Ironically, he threw four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Dolphins at home in Week 4. That game was Allen's second-best game of the season besides the Eagles and I would expect him to come out firing again Sunday night.
As great of a player that Allen is, he still forces too much and is prone to mistakes. This Dolphins defense has averaged one interception per game at home vs. 0.6 on the road.
Bills vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Josh Allen OVER 0.5 touchdowns (DraftKings -125) for 1 unit
There is some concern that Allen will not run as much with a banged-up neck, but in the heat of the game I still think he will be running. He has rushed for two touchdowns in the last two games and has scored at least one in 12 out of 16 games.
Bills vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Dolphins +3 (DraftKings -127) for 1 unit
This was at -3.0, but moved to -2.5 and I expect a very close game, but would like the insurance of +3 vs. +2.5. The Dolphins are banged up on defense with Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard out, but the rest of the players that were limited in practice should be good to go. This line has been adjusted too much in favor of the Bills based on the "must-win" factor and the Bills' recent history against the Dolphins.
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
Bills - #3 overall DVOA, #4 DVOA offense, #12 DVOA defense
Dolphins - #5 overall DVOA, #3 DVOA offense, #19 DVOA defense
The Bills have owned the Dolphins winning nine out of the last 10 meetings and Josh Allen has a 31/5 TD:INT ratio against them in his career. This is a "must-win" game for Buffalo, but we do have a bit of an inflated line with the Bills as -2.5 road favorites. The Dolphins would usually be a -1.0 to -2.0 home favorite in a normal week.
Dolphins 24, Bills 23
