Beating the Book: Divisional Round ATS Picks + Final Score Predictions For All Four Games

Welcome to a Divisional Round edition of Beating the Book!

We emerged from Super Wild Card Weekend in decent shape, going 3-3 ATS after taking losses on the Bengals, Bills and, somehow, Chargers. Cincinnati and Buffalo were lucky to escape against vastly inferior quarterbacks, while the Chargers found a way to blow a game that looked like it might've been sewn up by the end of the first quarter.

Looking ahead to Divisional Weekend, we're presented with a four pack of fun matchups with high totals. Jacksonville-Kansas City, the early game on Saturday, currently sits at 53.0 – the highest total of the year for the Jaguars and the second-highest for the Chiefs. After KC opened as a 9.5-point favorite, the number currently sits at a very tease-able 8.5 – one point higher than the spread in Philly, where the Eagles are 7.5-point favorites over the Giants.

On Sunday, we get a do-over on the Week 17 Bengals-Bills matchup that was ultimately canceled following the Damar Hamlin injury. After somewhat-shaky wins by both teams in the Wild Card round, Buffalo sits as a 5.0-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 3.5-point dogs at San Francisco on Sunday night.

Before we fully dive in on the Divisional Round slate, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Super Wild Card Weekend picks.

Last week: 3-3 ATS; 4-2 straight up; best bet won (49ers -9.5)

On the season: 129-141-7 ATS; 178-97-2 straight up; 8-11 best bets

Best calls of Super Wild Card Weekend: 

• Make no mistake: this Cowboys team is vulnerable and could absolutely get tripped up – envisioning the narrative is almost too easy. But as long as Prescott avoids a complete meltdown game, I don't trust Tampa Bay to keep up against one of the NFL's best pass defenses.
• As the postseason wears on, the 49ers will be forced to rely more on Purdy's arm, but in this matchup, against one of the league's most vulnerable run defenses, San Francisco should be able to ride its top-ranked ground game to a double-digit win.

Worst calls of Super Wild Card Weekend:

• At times, Buffalo has a tendency to play with its food in games like this, but as the Bills demonstrated last week – they trailed New England midway through the third quarter – they're capable of flipping the switch and piling up points in a hurry. Give me the Bills to win and cover.
• If Cincy can just score in the mid-to-high-20s, it's hard to imagine the Tyler Huntley-Sammy Watkins-Demarcus Robinson three-headed monster keeping up.

As has been the case all season, we'll go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via the DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Wednesday at Noon ET. If you don't have a BetMGM account yet, you can use this BetMGM bonus code for a generous welcome bonus.

Saturday Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Look at us. Who would've thought we'd be sitting here in mid-January writing about the Jaguars' chances to advance to the AFC Championship Game. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Jacksonville has to be the only team in NFL history to win a playoff game after losing to Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson in the same regular season.

From start to finish, this has been a strange year for the Jags, who we weren't sure even had a franchise quarterback as recently as mid-November. They've now won six games in a row dating back to Week 14, despite trailing by double digits in four of those wins. After needing a fortuitous call to vanquish Josh Dobbs' Tennessee Titans in Week 18, the Jaguars set a new standard for heroics this past Saturday, crawling back from one of the most disastrous first quarters in NFL history to methodically erase a 27-0 deficit.

I'm considering purchasing a second TV for my office exclusively dedicated to re-running this incredible 4th down call on an infinite loop.

If you're reading this, you know the story, so we don't need to rehash the specifics, but Trevor Lawrence's mid-game metamorphosis from long-haired Nathan Peterman to peak Tom Brady will go down as one of the all-time turnarounds. With that said, Lawrence has looked shaky for roughly five-and-a-half of the Jags' last eight quarters – not exactly encouraging heading into Arrowhead to face Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes off a bye. It goes without saying that the Chiefs will ensure they make the Jaguars pay for another slow start in a way that the Chargers couldn't.

This will be the fourth rematch in a row for the Jags, who faced off against the Chiefs in Kansas City back in Week 10. You may remember that as the game Jacksonville started off with an onside kick, recovered said onside kick, and still ended up punting from the KC 39-yard-line. Jacksonville won the turnover battle 3-0 – well, 4-0 if you count the onside kick – but still managed only 17 points in a 27-17 final. There's an argument to be made that this is a different Jaguars team, and while that's true, it's difficult to lay out a logical path to Jacksonville winning this game.

Could the Jags cover? Absolutely. I'm not picking them to do so, personally, but 8.5 is a big number for a red-hot team with an aggressive coach and a defense capable of creating turnovers. Plus, the Chiefs have struggled in these situations of late. Patrick Mahomes is just 11-18 ATS as a favorite of 7.0 or more in his career, including 3-6 ATS this season.

The best argument I can come up with in favor of the Jags is they can't possibly get off to as poor of a start as they did last week. Even against Tennessee in Week 18, Jacksonville struggled to gain control early on, running only 19 total plays in the first half.

The problem with facing Kansas City is the Jags could play a very good game and still lose by double-digits. They'll need to play legitimately great, and also require Kansas City to not play great, in order to have any chance – particularly on the road. I expect Jacksonville to embrace the challenge and show up more prepared on offense. But they've been playing with fire the last two weeks, and I can't help but think the Chiefs are the team that finally makes them pay for it.

Going up against a quarterback who's 9-1 career off of a bye, and a coach who's a borderline-laughable 28-5 in those situations, I can't back off of Kansas City in this spot. Jacksonville shows up and makes it a game, but the Chiefs win and get the narrow cover.

The pick: Chiefs 33 – Jaguars 24

New York Giants (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

I'm trying to be careful and not overreact to the Giants' win at Minnesota on Sunday. Statistically, the Vikings are perhaps the most fraudulent team in NFL history, but it was nonetheless an impressive showing by a Giants team that out-gained Minnesota by 100 yards, ran 12 more plays, did not commit a turnover and held the Vikings to just 61 rushing yards.

Given the stakes, it was probably the best game of Daniel Jones' career. Jones completed 24-of-35 passes for 301 yards and two scores in addition to pacing the Giants with 78 rushing yards on 17 carries. For the season, Jones is up to 786 yards on the ground – four more than Josh Allen in the same number of games. 

The emergence of Jones as a true dual-threat weapon – coupled with a healthy Saquon Barkley – make this a much more compelling matchup than the first time these two teams squared off back in Week 14. That was a 48-22 beatdown by Philly, which jumped out to a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter. At that point, New York was banged up all over the roster, while the Eagles were reaching their apex.

In the roughly six weeks since, the Eagles have struggled to regain that form – due in large part, of course, to Jalen Hurts' shoulder injury, which kept him out of Weeks 16 and 17. Hurts was back for Philly's Week 18 rematch against the Giants – New York rested as many starters as possible – and although the Eagles prevailed 22-16, they managed only one touchdown against mostly second-stringers.

With a week off, Hurts' shoulder should be as healthy as it's been since that initial Giants blowout. If he looks like himself and can run the ball confidently, the Eagles should be in a great spot to defeat their NFC East rivals for the third time in 41 days. With that said, Hurts' injury enabled some lingering doubts to creep in, and the Eagles ran out of time to put together a we're officially back statement game before the postseason.

For what it's worth, I felt the same way about how Dallas ended its regular season, and clearly the Cowboys' extended swoon did not carry over to Monday night's eradication of the Buccaneers.

With a healthy Hurts, the Eagles have been the wire-to-wire best team in the NFC. I'm not jumping off of them, but I expect the Giants to give the Eagles a run for their money. I'll take Philly to win outright but New York to cover.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Giants 21

Sunday Games

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.0) at Buffalo Bills

After opening at Bills -3.5 late Sunday night, this line is up to 5.0 at DraftKings, though it's hanging around at 4.5 at a few other shops. Either way, momentum continues to build for Buffalo, despite a rather uninspiring home win over a team quarterbacked by one of those guys we'll look back on in 10 years and say Dude, do you remember when Skylar Thompson almost beat the Bills? That was wild. 

Buffalo hasn't lost a game since Nov. 13, so I'm always hesitant to criticize what may very well be the best team in the NFL. But Bills have a troubling tendency to play a sloppy, at times reckless brand of football. Against the Dolphins or the Bears or the Patriots, the Bills can get away with careless turnovers or untimely 3-and-outs, but as the level of competition increases, Josh Allen will need to prove he can avoid throwing away possessions.

With both teams at full strength, I view the Bills and Bengals as near equals. We never got to see this matchup play out two weeks ago, but it's worth something that the Bengals received the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a touchdown.

However, part of the reason this line is moving away from Cincy is the Bengals issues on the offensive line. After left tackle Jonah Williams suffered a dislocated knee cap (no thank you) against Baltimore on Sunday, there's a good chance the Bengals will be down three starting linemen against the league's fourth-ranked defense by DVOA. Obviously, running the ball is always a significant challenge against Buffalo – Cincy ran for only 106 total yards over the last two games against Baltimore – but whether or not the Bengals are able to protect Joe Burrow is what will ultimately decide this game.

With a healthy offensive line, I would take the Bengals straight up. I really would. As much as I love watching Josh Allen, I can't help but think the ball security issues are bound to catch up to him at some point. I no longer think it happens this week, but I still like the Bengals to make this an entertaining shootout on the road.

Give me Cincy to cover but Buffalo to pull ahead late and set up a Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game at Alge Crumpler Memorial Stadium in Atlanta.

The pick: Bills 33 – Bengals 30

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

We were all over the Cowboys to finally put the Bucs out of their misery last week, but I never expected it to be that convincing. Despite Brett Maher going off for four missed extra points, the Cowboys controlled the game from start to finish, though an uncharacteristic Tom Brady endzone interception was an early backbreaker.

After ending the regular season with a handful of relatively underwhelming performances, the Cowboys reverted back to the team that averaged nearly 32 points per game from Weeks 8 through 16. More importantly, Dallas did not commit a single turnover – something it had done only once (Week 11 at MIN) in its previous 12 games. All things considered, Monday night may have been Dak Prescott's best game of the season, but he'll need to do it again if the Cowboys plan to knock off the NFL's hottest team (excluding the Jaguars).

After waking up in the second half to blow out Seattle, the Niners' win streak sits at 11 games heading into Sunday. During that run, they've scored at least 31 points eight times, including in six of the last seven. Since Week 7, San Francisco has committed only five total turnovers while forcing opponents into 23. While it's true the Niners have taken advantage of one of the NFL's softest schedules, the level of dominance over the last two months is remarkable.

Of course, if we're talking Niners, we have to mention Brock Purdy. The rookie was going through it during the first half against Seattle before playing a much better final two quarters. The questions about Purdy aren't going to subside unless he wins the Super Bowl, but there's been no appreciable drop-off from Jimmy Garoppolo to Purdy.

While the Cowboys made a statement Monday night and have the skill pieces to run with San Francisco, I side with the Niners' defense to turn up the pressure and prevent Prescott from having another outstanding night. Dallas should be able to give Purdy some issues, as well, so I don't think we get a blowout, by any means. I'll take the home team to win outright and cover.

The pick: 49ers 31 – Cowboys 27