Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 10

I went 5-8 last week, but 2-1 on best bets. My idea for doing a separate best bet tally was to get a real sense of how I was doing and cut out a lot of the random nonsense you get when you're forced to pick games on which you'd never bet. But Week 9 was the first one where that actually cut in my favor. Overall, I'm 75-57, but only 12-11 on best bets. That means I've probably been on the lucky side as the games about which I've been most confident are barely over .500.

Looking ahead to Week 10, I despise this slate. That hasn't stopped me from getting lucky in slates past when I've said I had no feel. In fact, this year, I'm almost positive there's a inverse correlation between my confidence in a slate and my record. So this should bode well.

My best bets for this week are the Jets and Falcons, though I reserve the right to add or subtract in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Browns +6 at Bengals

I hate this game because I don't especially respect either team, but I could see a Browns collapse given they've played the Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs the last three weeks, and A.J. Green should be closer to 100 percent. Back Cincy.

Bengals 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Cowboys -6 vs. Jaguars (in London)

Is Tony Romo even playing? I have no idea what to do with this game. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the Cowboys, but I don't like it.

Cowboys 28 - 20

Dolphins +3 at Lions

I committed to the Dolphins at plus-two yesterday, so I have to stick with them at plus-three. Last week, after I made my picks with the premise that the Chargers were the better team, I noticed Massey-Peabody's model had the Dolphins as the much better team. I thought: "Here's where their model is flawed," and of course the Dolphins won 37-0. I almost wish I hadn't seen their ranking because it's just a model, not the reality, but I can't unring that bell, and besides, I've always despised Matt Stafford and Detroit. My two concerns are Calvin Johnson coming back - he's a huge difference maker and underappreciated by the oddsmakers - and the Dolphins so-so offensive line having to deal with Detroit's rested defensive front on the road off a bye. In any event, I'm sticking with the Dolphins getting the full three - Detroit barely beat Atlanta on a neutral field last time out. Back Miami.

Dolphins 23 - 17

Chiefs -2 at Bills

The Chiefs are the kings of dink and dunk, but the Bills have a good defense and are playing at home. I'll take the points.

Bills 20 - 17

49ers +4.5 at Saints

The Saints winning at Carolina and the Niners losing at home to the Rams screwed this up for me, and this has become a tough call. I like the Niners as a buy-low, but I don't want to mess with the Saints at home. I suppose I expect the Niners to show up at least. Back San Francisco.

Saints 27 - 24

Titans +9.5 at Ravens

The Ravens got destroyed in Pittsburgh, and they have injuries in their secondary, but I think they bounce back at home against the Titans who are a bad, poorly-coached team. Back Baltimore (though remember, whatever side I take in Titans games usually fails to cover.)

Ravens 31 - 13

Steelers -5 at Jets

The Steelers have looked great in recent weeks, but I have to take the Jets out of principle as a home dog and a buy-low. Moreover, Michael Vick was able to get the ball into the hands of the team's best offensive weapons last week, and the Steelers defense isn't especially good. Back NY.

Steelers 24 - 23

Falcons -1.5 at Buccaneers

The Falcons are awful, but they also beat the Bucs 56-14 six weeks ago. I realize that was in Atlanta, and the Falcons don't travel well, but I'll take them in what's nearly a pick 'em against arguably the worst team in the NFL. And no, as terrible as Mike Glennon is, I'm not sure Josh McCown's an upgrade.

Falcons 27 - 23

LATE GAMES

Broncos -11.5 at Raiders

The Broncos could win by 100, and it wouldn't surprise me, but I don't see taking them laying this kind of number on the road against a team that should be much more up for them than they are for it. Back Oakland.

Broncos 28 - 17

Rams +7 at Cardinals

The Rams just beat the 49ers and Seahawks in the last few weeks, and maybe they found their pass rush, though it came last week against a 49ers team starting a rookie center for the first time. I think I'll lay the points here - the Cardinals will force Austin Davis to throw, and they'll be some bad mistakes. Back Arizona.

Cardinals 30 - 17

Giants +9.5 at Seahawks

I picked the Giants on the TYT segment, and now I can't remember why. Something like buy-low and the Seahawks aren't the good this year, even at home. But the loss of Prince Amukamara is huge, though Seattle doesn't really have the personnel to exploit it. Take the points.

Seahawks 24 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bears +7.5 at Packers

I want to buy-low on the Bears, especially now that Brandon Marshall should be nearly 100 percent after the bye. Is the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler plus home field worth 7.5 points? Probably right around there. This is a coin flip. I'll take the Bears and probably regret it.

Packers 31 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Panthers +6 at Eagles

I've been wrong a lot on both of these teams. My inclination is to buy-low on the Panthers here as Cam Newton should play better, and while Chip Kelly's system might make a player out of Mark Sanchez, it's too soon to assume that. Back Carolina.

Eagles 27 - 23

I went 5-8 in Week 9 to put me at 75-57-2 on the season. Best bets are 12-11-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.