Backfield Breakdown: Week 2 RB Usage Report + Week 3 Waivers Prep

Week 2 showed us why wide receivers increasingly are the popular fantasy picks within the first few rounds of fantasy drafts. In terms of per-game projections, Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley were two of the safest players on boards this summer, and both with appealing ceilings to boot. They're two of the larger RBs in the league, at least 220 pounds, and both were coming off healthy seasons with large-but-not-outrageous workloads.

The unfortunate truth is that in any given week the NFL players most likely to be injured are the running backs projected for large workloads. And for guys that take 15-plus touches per game year-after-year, a catastrophic knee/Achilles/ankle injury is a matter of 'when' not 'if'. It's not necessarily about durability; a lot just comes down to repeatedly being put in the high-injury-risk situation of carrying a football on an NFL field and eventually succumbing to poor luck the way Chubb did Monday night.

With Chubb out for the year and Barkley the next few weeks, Christian McCaffrey doesn't have much competition for the fantasy RB1 crown, apart from maybe Bijan Robinson and of course the aforementioned difficulty of staying healthy while getting tackled 20 times every week. McCaffrey was one of four RBs above 90 percent snap share Week 2, forming an eclectic group with Barkley, Zack Moss and Kyren Williams.

That's two superstars plus two of the week's top waiver adds, and we're set up for another interesting waiver run (recommendations found below) after four starting RBs got injured Week 2 (the same number that missed Week 2 after Week 1 injuries). Two of the eight starters lost to injuries so far are done for the year, Chubb and J.K. Dobbins, and three more look unlikely for Week 3 after suffering injuries Sunday/Monday (see below). The one potential bit of good news is that the guys who missed Week 2 after Week 1 injuries seemingly have a chance to return for Week 3, though in Kenneth Gainwell's case it may not be to the same role he had in the opener.

We'll start by taking a quick look at injuries and unsettled backfields, before getting to Week 3 waiver recommendations and advanced stat tables for the first two weeks of the season.

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• Nick Chubb (knee / out for season)
• Saquon Barkley (ankle / week-to-week)
• David Montgomery (thigh / week-to-week)
• Jamaal Williams (hamstring / no update yet)

• Boston Scott (concussion / day-to-day)
• Salvon Ahmed (groin / week-to-week)

Montgomery said he'll probably need a couple weeks to recover from his thigh injury, while coach Dan Campbell deemed the running back day-to-day. Jahmyr Gibbs took 65 percent of snaps after the third quarter in Sunday's overtime loss to Seattle, with Craig Reynolds getting the other 35 percent and taking four touches for five yards. Gibbs led the team with nine targets, though he still ran only the fifth most routes (21) -- a number that should rise if Montgomery (11 routes) misses Week 3 against Atlanta. Just don't expect Gibbs to get 20-plus carries; he's not a big back, and the Lions have a decent No. 3 in "Netflix" Reynolds.

Reynolds is available in nearly all fantasy leagues, by the way, as is Saints RB Tony Jones, who finished Monday's win over the Panthers with two TDs and 52 percent snap share. Jamaal Williams left early in the second quarter after injuring his hamstring, and Alvin Kamara still has another game left on his suspension. It'll likely be Jones and/or Kendre Miller (hamstring) leading the way Week 3 at Green Bay, which might also mean a few more carries for Taysom Hill.

Missed Week 2

• Aaron Jones (hamstring, day-to-day)
• Austin Ekeler (ankle, day-to-day)
• Kenneth Gainwell (ribs / day-to-day)

• Chris Evans (hamstring / day-to-day, LP)
• Kendre Miller (hamstring / day-to-day, LP) 
• Chase Edmonds (MCL / likely out a while)

Ian Rapoport suggested Ekeler could return Week 2. Chargers coach Brandon Staley didn't shut down the possibility but did say "no timeline" when asked about the running back. Neither Ekeler nor Jones practiced at all last week, so don't be surprised if one or both miss another game or two. Gainwell is probably the best bet among key Week 2 absentees to return Week 3, just perhaps as a backup to D'Andre Swift rather than in his lead role from the opener. Swift rumbled for 175 yards in Gainwell's absence and sits third in the league for rushing despite getting just one carry Week 1.

The other backs filling in for injured starters Week 2 were far less successful than Swift, with Joshua Kelley and AJ Dillon both busts while Justice Hill and Gus Edwards worked in a near-50/50 split for Baltimore (slight advantage to Hill, though Gus the Bus scored a TD).

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's intentions. As noted last week, we're excluding the Broncos and Jets, as it's only a matter of time before Javonte Williams and Breece Hall ascend to lead roles so long as they stay healthy.

Messy Backfields

1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. New Orleans Saints

The Giants, as discussed above, likely will deploy multiple backs in Barkley's absence and haven't really shown signs of being confident in any of them. QB Daniel Jones is the favorite to lead the team in rushing Thursday night in San Francisco.

The Eagles have to figure out what to do if Kenneth Gainwell (ribs) returns healthy before D'Andre Swift gets hurt. Swift is quicker and more elusive, but even in his huge TNF performance there were hints of the downside when he missed a block and gave up a sack. It was at least a matter of timing/strength rather than Swift flat-out missing an assignment or read.

The Ravens figure to give both Hill and Edwards a bunch of work Week 3 against the Colts, given that both had solid games in the win over Cincinnati. But eventually one could emerge over the other, and I prefer Hill as an upside play given that the Ravens like him on passing downs and intend to throw more passes and use more spread looks this year. Edwards certainly was a much better fit in the old Greg Roman offense, and he's one of the longer-tenured players on the team and among the more popular guys in the organization. I'll also note that Edwards still has some juice, which I wasn't so sure about heading into the season. Still, Hill is faster and much more comfortable catching passes.

On the Brink

1. Minnesota Vikings 
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New York Jets

Alexander Mattison isn't a quality starter and isn't playing well so far, but he might be a good bit better than the other options behind him in Minnesota. Expect him to get at least a few more weeks as the lead back in what should continue to be a pass-heavy offense for a variety of reasons. They'll make a change eventually, though, if Mattison continues making mistakes and having no luck whatsoever gaining yards on the ground.

The Colts are listed here because of Jonathan Taylor's possible return as soon as Week 5. Zack presumably has at least two more busy games after his Week 2 success in an every-down role, and it could be more than that if Taylor isn't ready to play or the Colts end up trading him.

The Bucs are kind of like the Vikings. Rachaad White isn't it, but he knows the offense and is decent in the passing game. That's more than the other backs can say, and it's not clear any of them is a considerably better runner than White. Undrafted rookie Sean Tucker merits watching, despite his lack of success off the bench so far. Note that Chase Edmonds is likely out for a month or two with an MCL sprain suffered this past Sunday.

With the Jets, I still figure it's a matter of time before Breece Hall asserts himself and pushes Cook to the side, but there's at least a bit of concern about the timing after the second-year pro showed no signs of role growth Week 2. There's also a lot of concern about the overall quality of the offense and how that impacts projections for the RBs.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than half of Yahoo leagues.

Top Adds for Week 3

• Jerome Ford - 18% 
• Justice Hill - 44%
• Roschon Johnson - 38%
• Tony Jones - 1% 
• Matt Breida - 2% 
• Jaylen Warren - 40%
• Craig Reynolds - 0%
• Chuba Hubbard - 20%
• Kendre Miller - 13%
• Eric Gray - 0%

Ford is the top add wherever available and 100 percent a good use of waiver priority even if you don't really need a running back. If you do need a running back and play in a FAAB league, I recommend bidding aggressively. There are never any guarantees when an inexperienced backup steps in for an injured starter, but we at least have strong signals that the Browns like Ford and will give him a lot of playing time.

For starters, they let Kareem Hunt walk in the offseason and didn't bring in a veteran replacement despite having cap space for one. Their only move of note was a late-August exchange of a late-round pick for Pierre Strong, who strictly played special teams Week 1 and took only 13 snaps on offense after Chubb's injury.

Strong did score a TD on one of his two carries, but it was a classic vulture situation with Ford coming out of the game after his 69-yard run set up the short score. Ford ultimately played 3.3 times as many snaps as Strong (49-13) after handling 41 percent snap share as Chubb's backup Week 1.

If you can't get Ford, backup options for improving the backfield include attempting to decipher what the Saints and Giants will do Week 3. With the Giants that sounds especially unappealing given the upcoming Thursday game in San Francisco and the likelihood of a timeshare between Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell and/or Eric Gray. 

The Giants mostly use Mr. Brightwell on special teams and in two-back formations, and Gray (a rookie fifth-round pick) has been the team's return specialist so far. Breida is the favorite to start and get the most touches, but he's an undersized speed back who probably won't see the ball more than 15 times or so even if the Giants don't fully trust the other guys.

For New Orleans, we should see a lot of Jones if Williams and Miller are both out with hamstring injuries for the final week of Alvin Kamara's suspension. The question is what happens if Williams is out and Miller is ready... a reasonably likely scenario at the beginning of the week. Miller is a rookie third-round pick who missed part of the summer and now the first two weeks of the regular season, while Jones is a veteran journeyman who mostly lingered around the Saints' practice squad and roster the past few years.

If you're in a shallower league where Justice or Roschon wasn't added last week, I'd go for either of them in a heartbeat over Breida/Gray/Brightwell/Jones/Miller. Chicago's three-way timeshare has already become just a two-man effort, and Hill finished a bit ahead of teammate Gus Edwards this past Sunday for both snaps and touches.

I also like Chuba Hubbard, both as a Week 3 desperation play and as a bench stash in case the Panthers tire of Miles Sanders. After struggling as a rookie, Hubbard has looked a bit better with each passing year and might ultimately be a better fit alongside Bryce Young than the speedy-but-mistake-prone Sanders. Few backs, if any, can provide a better lowlight reel of fumbles, drops and missed blocks over the past five years. Sanders offers nothing besides pure running ability, and even that hasn't been on display through his first two games for Carolina.

Bench Stashes

• Pierre Strong - 0%
• Tyjae Spears - 17%
• Tank Bigsby - 39% 
• Devin Singletary - 19%
• Sean Tucker - 4%
• Keaton Mitchell - 1% (IR)
• Deuce Vaughn - 9%
• Jeff Wilson - 25% (IR) 
• Jaleel McLaughlin - 1%
• Ty Chandler - 2%

I don't list him here because he's rostered in nearly half of Yahoo leagues and more than half of the competitive leagues, but make sure to pounce on Elijah Mitchell if someone cuts him loose. The lack of work might not look good, but we weren't starting Mitchell in a backup role anyway and the current roles make him more likely to step into a starting spot via injury. I've mentioned this in the past; it's actually not a bad thing if you're rostering a backup RB and he's getting no work behind a heavily used starter. That's especially true in a case like this where we know who the second-stringer is and can be reasonably confident he'll get a lot of work if the starter misses time.

Drop Candidates

• Jamaal Williams (shallow leagues)
• Samaje Perine (shallow leagues)
• Jerick McKinnon (shallow leagues)
• Damien Harris (shallow and medium leagues)
• D'Onta Foreman
• Deon Jackson 
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire 
• Cordarrelle Patterson
• Michael Carter

Patterson was a semi-healthy scratch, inactive after being removed from the Week 2 injury report. Harris scored a TD in quasi-garbage time but again worked behind Latavius Murray. Foreman was a healthy scratch. Jackson didn't play any snaps on offense. Edwards-Helaire and Carter are Option C in three-man backfields.

For shallower leagues, note that Perine got about half the snaps again but saw the ball on just five of his 30 plays (four targets, one carry). Javonte Williams got 12 carries and three targets on 28 snaps, by comparison, with the ball going his way on slightly more than half his plays on the field. Perine can't be started anymore but should still be rostered in medium and deep leagues given his RB2 potential if Williams suffers a setback with the surgically repaired knee or misses games for any other reason.

Playing Time & Alignment Stats  (Weeks 1+2) 🏈

• R Sn. = # of rush attempts player was on the field for
• Run% = Percentage of team rush attempts player was on the field for
• P Sn. = # of pass snaps player was on the field for
• Pass% = Percentage of team pass attempts player was on the field for
• 3D Sn. = # of snaps played on 3rd Downs with 3+ yards to go
• 3D% = Percentage of team snaps played on 3rd Downs with 3+ yards to go 
• SAT = satellite rate = percentage of player's snaps taken in the slot or out wide

Note: Rate stats only include Week 1 for Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones and Kenneth Gainwell. They only include Week 2 for Zack Moss.

Rushing Stats (Weeks 1+2)  🏃‍♀️

• Rush Sh = Percentage of team rush attempts taken by the player
• Run% = Percentage of team rush attempts player was on the field for 
• R Sn = # of rush attempts player was on the field for
• YPC = Yards Per Carry
• YBC = Yards Before Contact (per carry)
• YAC = Yards After Contact (per carry)

Note: Rate stats only include Week 1 for Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones and Kenneth Gainwell. They only include Week 2 for Zack Moss.

Receiving Stats (Weeks 1+2) 🤲

Pass Sn. = Snaps on Dropbacks (pass attempt or sack)

Pass Sn% = Percentage of team dropbacks player was on the field for

RTs = Routes Run

RT Sh = # Routes Run / # Team Dropbacks

Tgt Sh = # Targets / # Team Targets

TPRR = # Targets / # Routes Run

Week 2 Red-Zone Report 🛬

Inside The 5 (IT5) - Week 2

• Snap% = Percentage of team IT5 snaps that went to the player
• Ru Sh = Percentage of team IT5 carries that went to the player
• Tgt Sh = Percentage of team IT5 targets that went to the player

Red Zone (Inside the 20) - Week 2

• Snap% = Percentage of team RZ snaps that went to the player
• Ru Sh = Percentage of team RZ carries that went to the player
• Tgt Sh = Percentage of team RZ targets that went to the player