This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
In most 12-team drafts, at least three wide receivers are first-round picks. The clear top three are Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Each has merits to be the first receiver off the board, but which is the best choice?
We'll break them down in this Fantasy Football ADP Battle.
Cooper Kupp Fantasy Football ADP
We've seen his ceiling. More than 1,900 yards and 16 TDs. Last year, he failed to reach 92 receiving yards in just one game. His 31.8 percent target share led the league. He was unstoppable despite defenses selling out to slow him. Sure, it was the career year of all career years, but even 80 percent of that production would still be dominant. His 191 targets were ninth-most all-time and his 145 receptions only trail Michael Thomas' 2019 season. And, of course, his Kupp's season yardage total was 17 yards of Calvin Johnson's record. Repeating a legendary season like that, even if last year's conditions were identical would be unlikely. With a healthy Cam Akers expected to give the offense balance this year and Allen Robinson able to consistently win one-on-one matchups, don't be surprised to see Kupp's targets fall to the "mortal" range of 150. Yes, he'll be a WR1, but it's likely he has a significant drop from last year's production.
Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football ADP
Jefferson might have the safest floor of any player in fantasy aside from possibly Jonathan Taylor. As a rookie in 2020, he produced 1,400 yards and seven TDs. And in that rookie year, he was eased into his role during the early part of the season. Last year, his targets went through the roof, vaulting from 125 to 167. It's very unlikely that his floor is less than his 2019 production. And the ceiling? Well, going from coach Mike Zimmer and the conservative offense he preferred, the Vikings now have Kevin O'Connell and Rams' style of offense.
Will he have more than his 167 targets from last year? Not likely, but what is probable is that Jefferson is used much more creatively to get him free releases and schemed into more open space than he's seen. Jefferson showed his potential last year when he surpassed 100 yards in five of the last nine games while scoring in six of his last 10. I don't believe that we've seen the best of Jefferson yet, and he likely has the safest high-end floor of any WR in the league.
Ja'Marr Chase Fantasy Football ADP
There's no questioning Chase's talent. After one year, he looks like one of the best game breakers we've seen in the NFL. On an almost identical target count that Justin Jefferson had as a rookie, Chase had nearly twice as many touchdowns in his first campaign. And he finished the season strong — including the playoffs, he posted at least 109 yards in four of his last six games. In addition, he has an insane ceiling, as he had a pair of 200-yard games last year. He could be part of a scary offense this year because the Bengals significantly upgraded their offensive line. Think about the idea of Joe Burrow and Chase allowing pass routes to develop instead of Burrow having to get the ball out quickly to avoid the rush.
Amidst the upside, there are a couple points to consider that could lower Chase's upside. After posting big games against Baltimore, Pittsbugh and Kansas City last year, Chase's production was significantly limited in the rematches. It's possible that the league takes the approach to limit Chase's big plays at all costs. If that approach has success, the Bengals have a luxury that other teams don't have — Tee Higgins, who is a co-alpha receiver. If too much attention is paid to Chase, Joe Burrow likely would have no issue piling up the targets to Higgins. Of course, it's possible that Chase and the Bengals make adjustments and the league has no answer for the star WR.
The Bottom Line
It's hard to go wrong with any of these three choices. However, the floor that Jefferson has established the last two years makes him the safest high-upside WR in the league. He also benefits from the head-coaching change that is likely to turn the Vikings from a run-based to a pass-based team, so he can rival his competitors for upside. Since Chase has a co-alpha, his upside may not be as high as Jefferson's. And if anyone wants to "let it ride" with Kupp in the hopes he can have a similar season to last year, he'd be the upside play. When on the clock, I'll take Jefferson from this trio.
