This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
This week, we debate Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley.
Aaron Jones
Upside: With Jamaal Williams, who averaged 38 targets per season the last four seasons, now in Detroit, if Aaron Jones can take those vacated targets instead of AJ Dillon, he can move into elite territory as a receiver after averaging 48 targets last two seasons. In addition, it's unlikely he sees a major dip in the 15 rushing attempts per game he's earned since 2019. Even without a heavy workload, he's been a top-5 running back in each of the last two campaigns, and his upside has him at least retaining similar value with the potential of moving into the top three.
Downside: With the 247-pound Dillon functioning as the No. 2 running back behind Jones, it's possible that Jones loses opportunities in the red zone, which could hurt the fantasy value of a player who has scored 25 rushing TDs in his last 30 games. In addition, if the Packers decide to mix in Dillon on passing downs as they did with Jamaal Williams, Jones may continue to see good, but not great, usage in the passing game. However, in a similar role the last two seasons, Jones has been a top-5 running back, but should he lose even half of his touchdowns while not increasing his work in the passing game, he could end up performing more like a top-12 running back.
Jonathan Taylor
Upside: Based on comments made by coach Frank Reich early in the offseason, Taylor has earned the right to lead the backfield. After averaging 19.5 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown the last six games of 2020, that type of production would vault him into the group of elite RBs. In addition, it would help defenses from consistently loading the box if Carson Wentz can get back on the field early in the season and present at least a passable attack through the air that forces defenses to respect it. Also, the Colts will need to be at least average on defense after slipping significantly in the second half of the season last year, because if they play well on defense, Taylor will be called upon to close out games in the second half, which could lead to huge yardage games and extra scoring opportunities against tired defenses.
Downside: Even though Taylor had a respectable 39 targets last year, Nyheim Hines was targeted 76 times, and if Hines continues to be heavily involved in the passing game, those targets take away from excellent fantasy scoring opportunities from Taylor. And if the Colts find themselves trailing more often than they did last year, Taylor could find himself being scripted out of games on occasion, which isn't what one wants when spending a high draft pick on a player. In addition, if Marlon Mack returns to full health from last year's Achilles' tear, and if the coaching staff decides to give him regular carries, that also takes away from Taylor's chances to be dominant on a weekly basis.
Saquon Barkley
Upside: The most important part of realizing Barkley's upside is that he must be in a full-time role very early in the season. Aside from that, if the Giants utilize three-receiver sets to consistently lower the number of defenders in the box, so that Barkley can have regular opportunities to get to the second level on his runs, that will allow him to consistently post strong rushing totals. In addition, though he's unlikely to see the days of 121 targets in a season from Eli Manning, if he can get in the neighborhood of 80-90 targets from Daniel Jones, that'll allow him to post huge numbers as a receiver. Overall, a healthy and well-deployed Barkley can post top-3 numbers based on his exceptional skill set.
Downside: Since playing in 16 games as a rookie, Barkley missed three games in 2019 and another 14 last year, and as we know, he's not fully healthy less than a month before the regular season begins. If he's not at or near full strength, he's not only at risk for re-injury, but he's also a candidate to see his workload lightened. It also should be noted that when he was last healthy in 2019, he ran for 1.2 yards per carry less than the league average against eight-man fronts and 1.4 yards less than the average against seven-man fronts. And if the Giants offense cannot create situations to avoid those heavy box counts, he could have too many games with poor rushing totals to be worth his draft position.
The Bottom line
Since Jones has established the ability to be a top-5 RB in consecutive years because of his versatility and despite having to share work, he appears to have the best blend of floor and ceiling, making him the safest of this trio.
With Taylor having been dominant when the Colts schedule became quite soft against the run down the stretch last year, there are questions as to how he'll perform over a full season. Sure, his athletic measurables are unquestioned, but the fact he didn't dominate for an entire season is a question. Also, his upside could be capped depending on how much his backfield mates are used. Overall, his ceiling can be considered to be the production he had the last six weeks of last season, but he has more uncertainty than Jones, potentially giving him more downside.
For those looking to swing for the fences, very few NFL RBs have the ability to post 2,000 yards from scrimmage in a season, and that's exactly what Barkley did as a rookie, so his upside is the overall RB1. But, his current recovery from injury has to be factored in, and if he's unable to play at full capacity for a significant portion of the season, he then carries the lowest floor of this trio.
