This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
All things considered, it's been a quiet first week and a half of training camp. There was the Carson Wentz foot saga — and subsequently G Quenton Nelson having the same injury and same surgery — but most of the injuries up to this point land in the day-to-day or week-to-week buckets.
Still, there will always be ADP shifts to analyze, even if they're driven mostly by rumors. This week, we'll focus on the three big pieces of fantasy news from the past two weeks, using ADP data from BB10s to see how drafters have responded.
1. July 23 - Saints WR Michael Thomas revealed to have had ankle surgery.
WR Michael Thomas ⬇️
ADP July 1-22: WR9, ADP 28.9
ADP July 24- Aug. 4: WR23, ADP 51.0
The new ADP seems to overestimate the number of games Thomas will play. If the recovery/rehab from this surgery was no big deal, Thomas would've had the procedure back in February or March. There's a reason he wanted to avoid it, and a reason the timeline is estimated at four months. With the surgery taking place in mid-June, the wideout likely will miss at least four or five games, and he won't be back at his best until late in the season or even next year.
WR Tre'Quan Smith ⬆️
ADP July 1-22: WR70, 82.6
ADP July 24- Aug. 4: WR62, 154.9
Smith has a great opportunity ahead, but he also had some nice chances in the past and rarely stepped up to the challenge. He's averaged just 4.7 targets in seven career games with Thomas absent, and while he should see a little more volume this time around, it's easy to understand why drafters aren't going overboard (because Smith is an average player).
Marquez Callaway is the only other Saints WR who has been drafted on BB10s since the Thomas news, picked in 48 of 114 12-team drafts (42.1 percent) from July 24 to Aug. 4 (WR87, ADP 231.8). TE Adam Trautman has risen just a smidge, going from TE18 (ADP 148.0) to TE17 (142.0).
QB Jameis Winston ⬇️
ADP July 1-22: QB29, 202.5
ADP July 24- Aug. 4: QB29, 214.0
Winston is still 29th among QBs, but that's partly because QB30 (Jared Goff) has also been dropping and QB31 is teammate Taysom Hill. And while Hill hasn't budged from QB31, his ADP actually has improved a tiny, tiny bit since the Thomas news broke (221.4 to 219.9).
Thomas' absence obviously would be bad for Hill's passing efficiency, but it might also help him win the starting job (if Sean Payton is now more inclined to deploy run-first gameplans like the ones we saw last season when Drew Brees was out). Still, Hill has a lower ceiling without Thomas, and that's what matters in most non-best-ball leagues when discussing QB3 range.
2. July 27 - Packers QB Aaron Rodgers reports to training camp.
QB Aaron Rodgers ⬆️
ADP July 1-25: QB8, 94.0
ADP July 28- Aug. 5: QB6, 75.1
This is more movement than I expected... other fantasy drafters were either more worried about retirement rumors than they should've been, or else concerned Rodgers would put up lesser stats on a different team (a reasonable worry). Without the discount, Rodgers makes my list of most overvalued players based on ADP. No way I'd draft him over QB7 (Russell Wilson) or QB8 (Justin Herbert).
RB Aaron Jones ⬆️
ADP July 1-25: RB10, 13.7
ADP July 28- Aug. 5: RB9, 11.2
Two and a half spots of ADP is a big jump this early in the rankings, but it makes sense given how important Rodgers is to Jones, a running back who has relied on TDs and big plays rather than massive volume (he got 17.7 touches per game in 2019, and 17.8 in 2020). The real value may be AJ Dillon, who has gone up only slightly from RB36 (ADP 98.6) to RB35 (ADP 95.9). He's one of the few backup RBs with a decent shot at double-digit touches per week, not to mention RB1 upside in the event of a Jones injury.
The best hope for Dillon to have fantasy value while Jones is healthy involves the type of hyper-efficient offense that's only possible with a top QB like Rodgers. The Packers might've run more with Jordan Love at quarterback, but Love would've taken some of those carries, and the offense would've had fewer TDs to go around. From a dynasty standpoint, it's far from optimal to see Dillon is A) stuck behind Jones; B) potentially downgrading his QB from Rodgers to Love/? next spring.
WR Davante Adams ⬆️
ADP July 1-25: WR3, 14.4
ADP July 28- Aug. 5: WR1, 8.8
Adams was appropriately penalized for the Rodgers uncertainty, and then appropriately restored to overall WR1 status once things cleared up with the QB. Not sure there's much else to say with him, apart from repeating one of the dynasty concerns mentioned with Dillon (Rodgers potentially leaving next offseason). In any case the upcoming season should be a prolific one for Adams.
Prior to the Rodgers announcement, none of Green Bay's other wideouts were top 75 at the position in ADP. Allen Lazard was WR77, followed by Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR80) and Amari Rodgers (WR90). Now, they're WR82, WR81 and WR97, respectively, with any boost from Rodgers seemingly undone by Green Bay's acquisition of Randall Cobb, who subsequently went from WR84 to WR72.
TE Robert Tonyan did move up a little, going from TE11 (ADP 114.2) to TE10 (107.1) after Rodgers' return was confirmed. If ever there was someone whose viability depended on Rodgers being under center, Tonyan is that guy. I didn't like him at the old price when a Rodgers trade still seemed possible, but Tonyan is ok as a 9th/10th-round pick now that we know he'll have No. 12 slinging him the rock.
3. Aug. 2 - Colts QB Carson Wentz scheduled for foot surgery.
QB Carson Wentz ⬇️
ADP July 1-29: QB18, 139.7
ADP Aug. 2-5: QB25, 174.1
Wentz was already an injury-prone QB coming off a terrible season to join a run-first offense with average pass catchers. Now, he's recovering from surgery, and could miss the first month or two of the season (or not). Even at the new price, I'd rather have Sam Darnold (QB27) or Zach Wilson (QB28). In addition to the likelihood of missed games at the beginning of the season, Wentz might be bad enough to get benched later on, even if the alternatives are poor.
Speaking of which... drafters still aren't interested in Jacob Eason, picking him in zero of 19 drafts (12-team leagues) in the brief time since Wentz's surgery was announced. The recovery timeline of 5-to-12 weeks means Eason could make a handful of starts early in the year, but he's still a fourth-round pick (2020) with poor speed (4.89 40) and no NFL experience. There's also time for the Colts to bring in a veteran to compete for the Week 1 start.
WR Michael Pittman ⬇️
ADP July 1-29: WR46, 99.4
ADP Aug. 2-5: WR51, 115.6
WR T.Y. Hilton ⬇️
ADP July 1-29: WR54, 130.0
ADP Aug. 2-5: WR59, 144.4
WR Parris Campbell ⬇️
ADP July 1-29: WR66, 167.0
ADP Aug. 2-5: WR73, 185.1
It's a similar outcome for each of the three receivers, dropping by about 15 ADP spots and five spots in the WR ranks. Meanwhile, Zach Pascal remains ignored, lingering around WR100 range after back-to-back seasons with 600-plus yards and five TDs. Pascal doesn't offer any real upside, but he might be good enough to force a four-man rotation, creating yet another problem for the Indianapolis pass catchers.
I'll take the discount on Pittman because he has some potential to be a legit No. 1, but the other two will definitely be losing some snaps if the Colts keep Pascal involved. Subpar QB play is already baked into the equation here, so a temporary downgrade from Wentz to Eason isn't the end of the world for Pittman/Campbell/Hilton.
Other ADP Notes From Early August
- I wondered if the possibility of a Rodgers trade was impacting ADPs for Denver pass catchers. It looks like the answer is 'not really', considering Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton have only dropped by a tiny bit while Jerry Jeudy actually has moved up a couple spots (WR35 to WR33, with Sutton dropping from WR31 to WR34).
- In July, Jonathan Taylor was drafted RB7, ADP 6.8. Through the first five days of August, he went RB6, but at ADP 9.7. Drafters have cooled off on both Taylor and Saquon Barkley (down to ADP 10.2), while Ezekiel Elliott (5.6) and Austin Ekeler (10.0) are picking up steam, in addition to Jones and Adams rising after the Rodgers news. Meanwhile, Barkley still hasn't practiced, and the Colts have Marlon Mack healthy but Wentz injured. A lot has gone wrong of late, for Taylor in particular. So far, the ADP response seems appropriate, but we could eventually see an overreaction with Taylor dropping to the second round.
- Through the first five days of August, Jets RB Michael Carter was up to RB31, ADP 80.6, backed by reports of regular first-team work at training camp. However, the same report suggests Tevin Coleman will get carries, with other backs also having a chance to rotate in. Carter is still cheap enough to make good on his ADP as 1A in a committee, but I'll be wary of any further growth into the top 30.
- So far this month, Rams RB Darrell Henderson is at RB24, ADP 54.8. Backfield mate Xavier Jones is RB60, ADP 199.0, picked in 26 of 30 drafts this August. None of the team's other running backs has been drafted, including seventh-round rookie Jake Funk. We're now a week and a half into training camp and the Rams still haven't signed a veteran RB since Cam Akers suffered an Achilles tear in mid-July.
- Damien Williams (RB55) has nipped ahead of Tarik Cohen (RB56) in August, with the latter still on the PUP list and not expected to practice for at least a couple more weeks. Cohen was well ahead of his teammate in July, RB53 to RB58, with a 15-spot gap in ADP.
