FFPC Playoff Challenge: Overview and Strategy
With the NFL Playoffs set to begin Saturday, I'm eager to dive into one of my favorite playoff challenges hosted by the FFPC. They offer a pair of contests for their playoff challenge: a $35 contest with 16,000 teams and a $100k top prize, and a $200 contest with 7,800 teams that features a $500,000 grand prize.
Before we dive into strategy, let's go over the main things you need to know if you're new to the format. You'll create a lineup that consists of: QB, Two RB, Two WR, TE, Four Flex (RB, WR or TE), K, D/ST and you can only use one player per NFL team. With 12 roster spots and 14 playoff teams, there will be two teams you won't roster any players from. A couple scoring caveats include that fantasy points in the Super Bowl are doubled, and TEs in the FFPC receive 1.5 points per reception, while other positions are one PPR.
Full rules can be found here.
Team-by-Team Breakdown
AFC
Kansas City
Travis Kelce has found himself on the winning lineups in consecutive years and considering he hasn't slowed down this season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him show up there yet again. That's not to say he's a lock, however, as Jerick McKinnon has come on strong to close the season with 110 fantasy points over the last five games. Patrick Mahomes' rushing ability and willingness to spread the ball around makes him a strong consideration at the QB spot, while I'll fade the Kansas City WR corps entirely.
Targets: Mahomes, McKinnon, Kelce
Buffalo
As good as the Bills have been offensively this season, there's really only a few solid targets as the RB split between James Cook and Devin Singletary makes neither of them viable. In the passing game, Gabe Davis has been too unreliable to consider but Dawson Knox has a touchdown in four straight games and gets the reception boost in this format. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are also premium options and get a great matchup against the Dolphins to start their run.
Targets: Allen, Diggs, Knox
Cincinnati
Plenty to choose from on one of the best offenses in the league, in which Joe Mixon (65.2 points) and Ja'Marr Chase (71 points) were the players to have during the playoffs last year. Their roles haven't changed much, and Tee Higgins has also provided four 20-point fantasy games this season. Of course, Joe Burrow is a good option with five 30-point performances since Week 6.
Targets: Burrow, Mixon, Chase, Higgins
Jacksonville
The Jaguars get a matchup against the Chargers' 29th ranked DVOA rush defense, which should bode well for Travis Etienne. Meanwhile, Christian Kirk is coming off his fourth 20-point game of the season. We also can't forget about Evan Engram after his 11-162-2 performance in Week 14. I think there's too many other good QBs to consider Trevor Lawrence, and Zay Jones' lackluster finish to the season makes him an unnecessary risk.
Targets: Etienne, Kirk, Engram
LA Chargers
The Chargers open at Jacksonville in what is expected to be the closest game of wildcard weekend. The Jaguars have really struggled against the pass this season which makes Justin Herbert intriguing, although possibly getting just one game out of the QB spot isn't ideal. Austin Ekeler had eight catches in their Week 3 meeting, and with four 30-point fantasy games this season is a risky fade. I'll avoid the receivers considering Mike Williams looks like he'll be able to play but at less than 100 percent while taking targets away from Keenan Allen.
Targets: Herbert, Ekeler
Baltimore
The Ravens' situation is a bit complicated because Lamar Jackson (knee) is still iffy for this weekend. In 10 starts with Jackson at the helm, Mark Andrews averaged 16.7 points compared to 11.2 without. Justin Tucker is always going to be a popular choice, and rightfully so. I wouldn't expect much out of the defense as a touchdown road underdog, but they are one of the few teams where using the defense makes sense.
Targets: Andrews, Tucker, D/ST, fade altogether
Miami
The Dolphins are the biggest underdog on Wild Card weekend, making it difficult to use any positional players on them. As dominant as Tyreek Hill was this season, he could've only been considered if Tua Tagovailoa was able to start and even then would've been a risky play considering he was dealing with an ankle injury last week. Jason Sanders had at least nine fantasy points in three of the last four games, and there's minimal upside with the defense but any team that's likely to lose right away is usable at that spot in this format. Could fade this team entirely as well.
Targets: Sanders, D/ST, fade altogether
NFC
Philadelphia
The Eagles are probably the most difficult team to dissect in this challenge as they have five offensive players that you can make an argument for. Dallas Goedert averaged 15.1 points in the TE-premium format with Jalen Hurts under center, while A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each had a pair of 30-point games this season. There's still some doubt as to Jalen Hurts' shoulder being 100 percent, but he also has the potential to be the top postseason scorer. Miles Sanders also can't be ignored considering his upside with three 28-point fantasy performances on the season.
Targets: Hurts, Sanders, Brown, Smith, Goedert
San Francisco
Since Brock Purdy took over the reigns in Week 13, Christian McCaffrey is averaging a whopping 24.3 points while George Kittle has scored 18.3 ppg. Elijah Mitchell's return last week is enough to warrant some pessimism when it comes to McCaffrey's fantasy stock, though. I don't think there's a need to get cute and look towards anyone else, even with Brandon Aiyuk's 9-101-1 stat sheet against the Raiders in Week 17 as he's been inconsistent overall.
Targets: McCaffrey, Kittle
Minnesota
I would think that Justin Jefferson will be one of the highest rostered players in the challenge as prior to his slow finish to the season he put up three straight 30-point games. Then again, T.J. Hockenson's 42-point game against the Giants in Week 16 makes him a strong candidate as well. Dalvin Cook is a contrarian play that I don't mind, especially considering the Giants rank dead last in DVOA rush defense.
Targets: Cook, Jefferson, Hockenson
Tampa Bay
First things first – do you think the Bucs will upset the Cowboys? If you don't, taking Ryan Succop or the Bucs defense makes sense especially against a turnover prone Dak Prescott. If you like the Bucs to win, any of Tom Brady, Mike Evans or Chris Godwin are viable options. Evans posted a 10-207-3 game in Week 17 but has been largely inconsistent, while Godwin has double-digit points in all but one game. The RB situation is too murky to mess with.
Targets: Brady, Evans, Godwin, Succop, D/ST
Dallas
With all the star QBs in the playoffs, Prescott won't be rostered by many but could pay off in a big way if the Cowboys make a run. Tony Pollard's ceiling makes him someone to consider after he went through a six-week stretch that included five 20-point games and a pair of 30-point performances. CeeDee Lamb has been the most reliable fantasy performer with 100 yards in three of the last four games. Dalton Schultz makes for a sneaky play as well, as he had the best fantasy performance in the Week 1 meeting against Tampa Bay (16.7 points) and had a 28-point game two weeks ago.
Targets: Prescott, Pollard, Lamb, Schultz
NY Giants
The Giants get a Week 16 rematch at Minnesota, and they have a good chance at pulling off the upset. That has my weary of using my kicker (although Graham Gano posted 14 points in Week 16) or defense here and nobody in the receiving corps is a reliable play. There are too many better QB options to risk going with Daniel Jones, and Saquon Barkley put up 27 fantasy points in their first meeting. Keeping things simple and going with Saquon Barkley makes a lot of sense.
Targets: Barkley, Gano
Seattle
On the NFC side, the Seahawks are a team you should be looking at fading or using Jason Myers or the defense considering they are one of just two double-digit underdogs this weekend. A matchup against a stout 49ers defense that held them to just 13 points at Seattle in Week 15 leaves little to be excited about offensively, as Kenneth Walker totaled just 47 total yards and no receiver reached 70 yards. Maybe the defense forces some mistakes in Brock Purdy's first playoff start, but even that may be a stretch.
Targets: Myers, D/ST, fade altogether
Final Thoughts
One thing I encourage people to do before you start building your team is to fill out a bracket and predict how you think the entire playoffs will play out, as a guide in how many games you expect each team to play. You want your QB to play multiple games but note that the winner of each contest last year didn't have Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow as their QB. Based on historical trends of the contest and typical positional ceilings, I prefer targeting three WRs and one TE in my flex spot but going with an RB over a TE is also fine. Finally, don't be afraid to be a little contrarian as combinations of Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jefferson and Kelce are going to be common. In such large contests with multi-entries allowed, you're going to have to take a chance on a player or two that isn't too highly rostered as a way to gain leverage on the competition.
Good luck!
