This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
Because most fantasy gamers usually have pretty strong opinions of players at the very top of the draft, we'll start with players just outside of that range.
ADP Battle: Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon
Upside: Gibson averaged more than five yards per carry last season while scoring seven TDs in four games after Washington's Week 8 bye and before injuring his toe in Week 13, and it appeared he was on the verge of becoming a star. He also faced defenses that didn't have to worry about the Washington QBs stretching the field, but Ryan Fitzpatrick will alleviate that problem. Since he came into the league as a talented receiver, his role in that area should grow, increasing his fantasy value. Although the toe injury is still a concern, he participated fully in OTAs, so it would appear the team expects him to be fine. If everything falls into place, Gibson could finish as a top-5 RB, especially running behind an offensive line that is considered above average.
Downside:
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
Because most fantasy gamers usually have pretty strong opinions of players at the very top of the draft, we'll start with players just outside of that range.
ADP Battle: Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon
Upside: Gibson averaged more than five yards per carry last season while scoring seven TDs in four games after Washington's Week 8 bye and before injuring his toe in Week 13, and it appeared he was on the verge of becoming a star. He also faced defenses that didn't have to worry about the Washington QBs stretching the field, but Ryan Fitzpatrick will alleviate that problem. Since he came into the league as a talented receiver, his role in that area should grow, increasing his fantasy value. Although the toe injury is still a concern, he participated fully in OTAs, so it would appear the team expects him to be fine. If everything falls into place, Gibson could finish as a top-5 RB, especially running behind an offensive line that is considered above average.
Downside: There's no guarantee that the toe injury he suffered won't resurface, possibly costing him games, snaps and/or explosiveness. Also, despite seeing 44 targets in 14 games last year, J.D. McKissic was targeted 110 times, and even though Gibson offers much more upside after the catch, McKissic's reliable role in the passing game could take away many of the targets Gibson enthusiasts would like to see directed his way, which would take away upside.
Upside: It's no secret that the Steelers want to rely on defense and rushing to win, and by selecting Harris with the overall No. 24 pick in this year's draft, it appears that he's locked into heavy usage on all three downs — at 230 pounds, he certainly seems primed for a heavy workload. He'll also benefit from an offense that will use three-receiver sets frequently, possibly giving him extra room to run. Even if the offensive line is poor, Harris projects to be an excellent receiver, giving him one of the highest scoring floors outside of the top-5 RBs.
Downside: In the latter part of 2020, it appeared that Ben Roethlsiberger's arm was no longer able to make accurate throws downfield, and it's possible that defenses react by stacking the box, pressing the receivers at the line and daring Roethlisberger to beat them over the top. In addition, a Pittsburgh offensive line that struggled to run block in 2020 has lost their three best players, potentially making this one of the worst lines in the league. If these factors occur, Harris may frequently be hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, and even though he could see significant volume, there may not be much efficiency, and there may not be many red-zone carries. As a result, his touchdown totals might be low, and he might have too many weeks with unimpressive yardage totals.
Upside: One thing that's difficult to argue with is that Chubb is one of the best running backs in the NFL, and he also plays on one of four NFL teams that ran the football more than they passed it in 2020. Another factor is he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, and despite often facing stacked boxes, Chubb ran for a career-high 5.6 yards per carry last season. He easily could go from being a very good fantasy producer to a great one if he can build on his late-season passing-game usage in which he was targeted four or five times in three of his last four games (including the playoffs) while Kareem Hunt totaled eight targets in those four games.
Downside: Aside from injury, the main concern about Chubb's upside is the usage of Hunt. Last season, Hunt was given 43.6 percent of the Browns' red-zone carries and 13.4 percent of the red-zone targets, and he had 13 carries inside the five-yard line, with many of those chances taking away the ability for Chubb to score touchdowns. In addition, if Hunt sees a repeat of the 51 targets thrown his way, that'll continue to chip away at Chubb's playing time.
Upside: If Mixon can return to full health after missing the last 10 games of 2020 with a foot injury, he's expected to function in a three-down role after the Bengals parted ways with longtime receiving back Giovani Bernard. In 2019, Mixon accounted for more than 1,400 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns fueled by a massive second half of the season when the team scrapped its outside-zone run scheme for a gap running scheme. Although the team used both schemes last year, if it went back to the gap scheme, that would definitely benefit him. And although the offensive line has been an annual disappointment, the addition of Ja'Marr Chase to the receiving group will likely force defenses into putting fewer defenders in the box, leading to more running room, and production.
Downside: With the Bengals' problematic offensive line struggling to create consistent space for Mixon last year, he posted a disappointing 3.6 yards per carry, which was 0.9 yards less than his prior two seasons, and there's no guarantee things will be any better this year. Running behind the same line while Mixon missed the last 10 games of the season, Samaje Perine rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, and if Mixon struggles early, it wouldn't be stunning to see Perine steal some of the early down work, which could eat into Mixon's best fantasy asset — perceived volume. Although he should have little trouble retaining the receiving work, any reduction in usage would make him a risky choice at his ADP.
Bottom Line
Fantasy managers looking for the best balance of upside and safety from these four options should strongly consider prioritizing Nick Chubb, as his combination of talent, offensive line and scheme ensure that he'll have very few disappointing weeks, and if he sees an uptick in targets, he could be an elite performer.
Those who want to swing for the fence while taking on some risk might lean toward Antonio Gibson. He was starting to look like a superstar last year, and he has the ability to finish as a top-5 RB with his versatility and effectiveness near the goal line. He also weighs 220, so the coaching staff might not have concerns about giving him a heavy workload. However, the risk largely lies with the fact that we're still hearing about his 2020 toe injury.
Although Najee Harris has an excellent chance of seeing the most volume from this group of players, there's a chance that the entire Pittsburgh offense becomes overwhelmed due to an aging QB with questionable arm strength and a potentially terrible offensive line. Yes, volume is king in fantasy football, but Harrs' ADP suggests that his volume will result in elite production, which could be difficult for him to attain.
Had Joe Mixon not destroyed a terrible Jacksonville for 181 yards and three touchdowns, we would be looking at a player who failed to score or reach 100 total yards in any of his other five games last year. Sure, it's a small-sample size, but Mixon has had a history of inconsistency during his four years in the league. It's also worrisome that Perine looked solid behind the same line later in the season last year. Overall, Mixon's ceiling is decent, but there's a potential floor that seems problematic.
