Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 12

Welcome back for our Week 12 edition of Start vs. Sit. On paper, we have a pretty uninspiring slate of games with several teams playing weak non-conference opponents in advance of their season-ending rivalry games on tap for next weekend. Still, it's the first week of the playoffs in most leagues, which makes every game important. I dove into the the slate and dug up the best start and sit plays for this week. As always, feel free to ask me any specific lineup questions in the comments section below.

PLAYERS TO START

AAC

Michael Warren II, RB, Cincinnati (at Central Florida)

Everyone that had Central Florida-Cincinnati being the most important AAC game of the season, please raise your hand. No? Even you in the back? No? Ok, well neither did I, but let's focus on the now. If Cincinnati is the AAC's most surprising team, Warren might be its most surprising player. Warren is tied with Darrell Henderson for second in the nation with 17 rushing touchdowns. Central Florida, meanwhile, is shaky at best against the run, allowing 208.89 rushing yards per game. The Knights might be the best Group of Five team in the nation, but they are certainly on upset watch this week and Warren is a huge reason why. If you're looking for a deeper cut among AAC start candidates, Zach Abey is a worthwhile streaming option against Tulsa that might even be receiver eligible in your league!

ACC

Darrin Hall, Qadree Ollison, RB, Pitt (at Wake Forest)

This duo has been the catalyst behind Pitt's run to the top of the ACC Coastal division. Over the past three weeks, Hall has 39 carries for 468 yards (12.0 YPC!) and four scores while Ollison has added 41 carries for 408 yards and a more workman-like 10.0 YPC. Wake Forest has one of the worst run defenses in the nation, checking in at 91st against the run. Now, Pitt can run on just about anyone, but a matchup against the Deacs is especially favorable. Both of these guys are viable this week.

BIG 12

Charlie Brewer, QB, Baylor (at TCU)

I don't know what happened and I don't know why it's flying under the radar to this extent, but TCU has hit the skids big time this year. The Horned Frogs are giving up 28.7 points per game in conference play, and that number is aided by the fact that they've already played Kansas and Kansas State (they lost to Kansas. Never forget). This sets up extremely well for Brewer now that he has reclaimed the starting role. He completed 26 of 36 passes (72.2 percent) for 288 yards and two scores while adding 72 rushing yards against an Iowa State defense that's arguably the best in the conference. Brewer has the talent around him coupled with the dual threat ability to be a start-worthy quarterback in two-quarterback leagues this week.

BIG TEN

Adrian Martinez, QB, Nebraska (vs. Michigan State)

It took 'em long enough, but the Cornhuskers are finally rolling on offense under Martinez and coach Scott Frost, having scored an average of 46.0 points in each of their past three conference games. Martinez has been a huge part of that, racking up 11 total touchdowns in that span. He's not mistake-free (three turnovers) but the output makes up for those blemishes. Michigan State is undoubtedly tough on defense and Sparty's opponents often show up in the "Sit" side of my columns. The Spartans can be beaten through the air, however, and Martinez is showing the improved polish as a passer to do just that. It's a tough matchup, but Martinez is still start-worthy.

CONFERENCE USA

Mason Fine, QB, North Texas (vs. Florida Atlantic)

Fine had a surprisingly down week against Old Dominion, going for just 240 yards and two touchdowns against a Monarch defense that ranks in the bottom 30 against the pass. He also threw just his second interception of the season. This week he'll be at home against Florida Atlantic, which has given up 18 touchdowns through the air and checks in at 80th against the pass. Fine has been too productive for such a sustained period of time to lose faith in him at this point of the season after one mediocre game.

MAC

K.J. Osborn, WR, Buffalo (at Ohio)

One bad game where quarterback Tyree Jackson had to throw it just 16 times shouldn't scare you off Osborn this week. It's fair to argue that Osborn is the No.2 option in the offense now that Anthony Johnson is back to full strength, but this offense can have more than one receiver thrive. Osborn has an above average per-target number (8.8 YPT) and makes his catches count with a 16.9 YPR. In a game with one of the highest implied totals of the week (66.0), Buffalo will be playing a full four quarters with its foot (hoof?) on the gas, which bodes well for an Osborn rebound.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Juwan Washington, RB, San Diego State (vs. Fresno State)

Sixty-six yards on 21 carries against UNLV is a head-scratching line from a player of Washington's talent. Rather than focusing on the 3.1 YPC against a bad defense, I'll emphasize those 21 carries that show Washington is back to full health. Now, Fresno State is tough as anyone against the run and, like Michigan State, its run defense is usually a reason to leave someone on the bench. Boise State's Alexander Mattison showed us this past weekend that it is possible to run on those Bulldogs, though. Look for Washington to see a heavy workload, and even if the efficiency is suboptimal, the he'll still produce a start-worthy stat line.

PAC-12

Dillon Mitchell, WR, Oregon (vs. Arizona State)

Mitchell going for 169 yards and two scores against Utah should have erased any remaining doubt as to whether he's a matchup-proof asset. The junior is finally living up to his lofty recruiting billing and now leads the PAC-12 in receiving with 1,002 yards to go with eight touchdowns. Arizona State is solid against the pass (237.0 Passing Yards Per Game), but its secondary isn't enough to keep Mitchell in check over the course of 10-plus targets.

SEC

Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt (at Mississippi)

It's slim pickins in SEC Country this week with most of the conference taking a de facto bye week before their rivalry games next weekend. Vaughn and the Commodores are playing in one of the few All-SEC games of the weekend, and his recent hot streak is impossible to ignore. 354 yards and four scores over the past two weeks, including 182 yards against a supposedly strong Missouri run defense. A showdown against Ole Miss' 113th-ranked run defense? Sign me up.

SUN BELT

Caleb Evans, QB, Louisiana-Monroe (at Arkansas State)

This is a tough spot on the road for Evans as he leads Monroe into Jonesboro to face an Arkansas State team that is favored by more than a touchdown. Evans has established himself as matchup proof at this point, however, and is on an absolute tear. He has eight total touchdowns in his past two games and has run for multiple touchdowns on four separate occasions in Sun Belt play. Even if Arkansas State is able to blanket the ULM receivers, Evans has the wheels to do more than enough damage on the ground to remain start-worthy at quarterback.

PLAYERS TO SIT

Central Florida Receivers (vs. Cincinnati)

Looking at the flipside of this matchup, we have the Knights offense facing one of the nation's best defenses. Whichever team wins this in-game matchup will have the inside track at winning Saturday's contest. Within that matchup, we have Central Florida's receivers against the Bearcat secondary. The UCF offense ranks fourth in S&P+ and 16th in terms of passing while Cincy checks in at 12th against the pass. UCF's trio of receivers (Gabriel Davis, Dredrick Snelson, and Tre Nixon) is supremely dangerous with varying skill sets. And, this is a system that can work against almost anybody. Still, I give a lean to the defense here. It's not that all three of those receivers will be shut down or that UCF will be shut out, it's just that all three of them are potentially in line for their lowest fantasy outputs of the season. If you have the receiver depth, you should consider starting someone else instead of your UCF receivers.

ACC

Eric Dungey, QB, Syracuse (vs. Notre Dame)

Dungey has been automatic this season and we're finally seeing what this offense can do when he's fully healthy with the Orange checking in at seventh in the nation in points per game (44.4). Dungey and that offense will be fully put to the test this week against a Notre Dame defense that allows just 18.7 points per game and just 17.2 fantasy points to quarterbacks. I lean towards the defense here, as Notre Dame's talent and experience will stymie the Dungey-led Orange offense. If you're in a 14-team league, you might not have a better option than Dungey this week, but 12-teamers and shallower leave Dungey on the fringe.

BIG 12

Sam Ehlinger, QB, Texas (vs. Iowa State)

Ehlinger is on a roll and is coming off two of the best games of his career, completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 666 yards and seven touchdowns against West Virginia and Texas Tech. Of course, West Virginia ranks 54th in defensive S&P+ and Texas Tech checks in at 91st while this week's opponent, Iowa State, sits at 26th. Translation: this is Ehlinger's toughest defensive matchup of the season. Iowa State's can give any quarterback trouble with its defensive front, and the secondary has been strong as well. This game will go a ways towards proving whether Ehlinger's recent hot streak is a sign of things to come or the function of taking advantage of soft matchups.

BIG TEN

Stevie Scott, RB, Indiana (vs. Michigan)

Scott is likely on the roster for plenty of playoff teams, but your reward for having him partially responsible for getting you here is having to bench him in Week 12. He ranks sixth in the Big Ten in yards per game (89.4) and is tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns with eight. Michigan is just not something to be trifled with at the moment. The Wolverines are second overall in S&P+ and are such heavy favorites Saturday that it's possible that Indiana will have to ditch the run by the second quarter.

CONFERENCE USA

C.J. Worton, Florida International (at Charlotte)

Worton's hot start to the season seems like it came from a different year at this point. He started the year with 20 grabs for 459 yards and five touchdowns through six games, with one big game against Miami sandwiched in there. Since then, Worton has a grand total of nine catches for 87 yards and a score over four games. Charlotte doesn't present a uniquely difficult challenge for Worton, but his downturn in volume and per-target efficiency makes him someone to avoid in a playoff week.

MAC

Alonzo Smith, RB, Miami (OH) (at Northern Illinois)

Miami of Ohio gets the most out of its running back duo of Smith and Kenny Young, with Young serving as the pass-catcher and change-of-pace back while Smith is the hammer. Smith saw 57 percent of the carries in Week 11 against Ohio and turned it into 94 yards -- his second-best mark in MAC play -- and two touchdowns. Northern Illinois' defensive strength is against the run, however. The Huskies rank 10th in S&P+ and Miami will likely try testing them through the air instead, which could lead to Young seeing more snaps than Smith. If that ends up being the case, this could be another game where Smith ends up with under 70 yards from scrimmage.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Collin Hill, QB, Colorado State (vs. Utah State)

When Hill took over as the starter for a well-designed offense in which he has experience, you would have expected a little bit more than a 5.5 YPA to go with one touchdown and three picks. It's clear that Preston Williams, for as good as he is, can't make up for Hill's inefficiencies as a passer. Hill might be going to the air 40-plus times again this week, but he doesn't push the ball downfield enough to make those attempts sting a defense as strong as Utah State's.

PAC-12

Travon McMillian, RB, Colorado (vs. Utah)

McMillian's efficiency in recent weeks has been strong, picking up 264 yards on 40 carries (6.6 YPC) in his past three outings. The volume, outside of the 20 carries against Oregon State, has been concerning. McMillian has just 20 carries combined over the past two weeks. A showdown against a tough Utah run defense with volume trending in the wrong direction lands McMillian in the sit bin this week.

SEC

Prominent SEC Stars

Whether it's your Alabama starters like Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, Damien Harris and Henry Ruggs, or your Georgia stars like D'Andre Swift, it's difficult to imagine most of the conference's headliners playing deep into Saturday's games. It stings if those are the building blocks on your team, but it's just the reality this week with most teams using Saturday as a time to get their young players some valuable experience and their starters some much-needed rest. It does, however, open up some interesting streaming possibilities, so be sure to comb the depth chart page to find some one-week fill-ins.

SUN BELT

Marcus Outlow, RB, Coastal Carolina (vs. Georgia Southern)

Outlow is the primary goal line back for the Chanticleers and has eight touchdowns to show for it, along with 661 rushing yards through 10 games. Georgia Southern is stingy against the run, allowing just 3.87 YPC in conference play to go with just 11 rushing touchdowns allowed against Sun Belt opponents. Outlaw also cedes carries to Torrance Marable, who brings the type of explosive skill set (6.6 YPC) that has given the Eagles more trouble this season than what Outlow brings to the table. Outlow's touchdown dependence makes him a risky play against one of the Sun Belt's stingier defenses.