This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Pop Tarts Bowl Picks: Miami vs. Iowa State
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Two teams that just missed out on the playoffs battle in Orlando Saturday afternoon, when 10-2 Miami faces 10-3 Iowa State. The Cylcones sit at 7-6 ATS, but just 2-5 down the stretch, with the over hitting at the same 7-6 rate, including alternating success in 11 straight. Miami sits at 6-6 ATS while the over has cashed in eight of their 12 games, though it's just 2-3 over their last five.
Miami vs. Iowa State Pop Tarts Bowl Odds
Spread: Miami -3.5 ( -109 BetRivers), Iowa State +3.5 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 55.5 (-110 BetRivers), Under 56.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Miami -165 (BetRivers), Iowa State +150 (ESPNBet)
Pay minimal attention to the fact that this opened with Iowa State as (-1) point favorite and immediately flipped to (+3) underdogs. It's solely because Cam Ward stated he'd play in the game. Since then, it's moved up and down by half a point. It's remained a consistent number for some time.
The total followed a slower path, opening at 53.5 and consistently ticking up by a half a point all the way to it's current spot. There aren't many 55.5 totals available, and you'll likely see it at 56.0 or greater by kickoff, barring weather.
And it'll come as no surprise the moneyline has moved similarly. Both sides opened with minus odds given the pick 'em opening spread. Miami has been as high as (-175) and still is in some spots. Iowa State meanwhile has recently crept over (+150) at some books.
Miami vs. Iowa State Pop Tarts Bowl Betting Picks
Per usual; its about who's in and who's out. For Iowa State, they look largely in tact, with only one starting defensive lineman confirmed out, and most to all seniors expected to play. Miami on the other hand, no one knows as Mario Cristobal keeps things close to the vest. While Cam Ward will play, it's unknown if he'll get the full four quarters or if Miami will give Emory Williams a look heading into 2025. And who will Ward throw to? It looks like Jacolby George is in, Elijah Arroyo trending towards in, Samuel Brown is likely out and Xavier Restrepo is a true unknown, though I'd be surprised if he plays. Defensively, it's even more of a guessing game for Miami in the front seven, and opt outs in the secondary could actually benefit the Canes if we're being honest.
It looks like a bad matchup for Ward, especially if he's relying on unproven receivers. Iowa State ranks third in the nation in pass defense, allowing 6.2 YPA, 161.7 YPG and a 15:14 TD:INT ratio. We know they won't hold Ward to that, but he also makes ample mistakes and that likely happens a time or two here. Iowa State also ranks 103rd against the run, and Miami is very effective there with Mark Fletcher, Jordan Lyles and Damien Martinez (likely playing). But are they really going to run heavily in Ward's final game? It's honestly possible, as he just wants to win.
But where I think this is won is Iowa State's passing attack against Miami's woeful secondary. The Cyclones average 7.6 YPA with a 22:10 TD:INT ratio. MIami has allowed 300+ yards in two of their last four, and at least 297 yards in five of nine. We always back the over in Miami games, and that makes a ton of sense here as I'd expect both sides to flirt with or eclipse 30 points. But the ACC has struggled in bowl games this season and last and I simply have no faith in this defense to make stops. The Iowa State moneyline is very attractive.
Miami vs. Iowa State Best Bet: Iowa State +3.5 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Miami vs. Iowa State Pop Tarts Bowl Betting Predictions
Loyal readers know I'm a die hard Hurricanes fan, so I always have personal doubts given the past 20 years. I follow them too closely at times, and I'm usually overly critical on their weaknesses. I don't feel I am here as they blew a 21-0 lead last game when all they needed was a win to secure a playoff spot. The defense is atrocious.
Cam Ward is also the best college quarterback in the country. As such, they're capable of winning whenever he plays regardless of who he's playing with. This game should be highly entertaining.
But Iowa State's pair of 1,000-yard receivers aren't going to be stopped here. Jayden Higgins brings massive size while Jaylin Noel can operate underneath and has a frame to break tackles. Higgins is also from Miami, adding a little revenge narrative. QB Rocco Becht is also a Florida native. Ward gets his but the Cyclones get more against the Hurricanes' porous defense that I'm assuming will also be missing at least someone across the front seven.
IOWA STATE 38-37
